May beans down 6 1/2 today...and up 10 tonight

[kato]

Expand markets? Allow testing. Simple.

Japan is there right in front of us, and whether it's scientifically correct or not is irrelevant. It's an access to a market. It's giving the customer what they want. Why should it be different for beef than it is for other products?

Is it scientifically correct to only manufacture green shoes, if that's the only kind people will buy? No. It's smart marketing.

Is it scientifically correct to only sell organic food? Some people say no. Some say yes. But no one stops an organic farmer from marketing his product. Why is tested beef any different than organic?

No one can prove the 'science' behind the concept on either, but the consumer will only buy what the consumer wants. Just as not every North American consumer jumps on the organic bandwagon because some people believe in it, they also will not jump on the "I only eat tested beef" bandwagon just because Japanese consumers want it. They understand the situation in Japan is not the same as here, and are a lot more intelligent than they are given credit for.

How much kicking around do we want to submit to before we really get serious about change? If the big American packers don't want to keep up, then too bad so sad. Leave them behind.

[kato]

i agree with kato and farmers-son lots of talk no real action!!!!!!!!!!
no 1 -testing all cattle starting
tomorrow i know not needed but if consumer wants do it better than losing250 -300dollar a head.
no 2-no more inplants[hormone]large
euro-dollarcountry.love to buyhormone
free beef.name [HORMONE]IS LIKE NAME
CEBULL IN CANADA!!!!!!!
NEVER heard any action or results of
all these long trips by abp and acc
ben torlakson????
ted haney is starting to talk about this large europe market.
never heard cargill or lakeside spent big trips on promoting b-s-e free and hormone free beef.
first we produce cheap product for the
u-s-a packers and than sell and promote our beef and give them millions of goverm money on top. we need kill capacity canadian plants .witout goverment help [never] [never] those smaller canadian plants get started!!!
paul martin is more interested with the gay and same sex marrige or stopping the misle,s from u-s-a
canadian liberal leader not setting
a good sample toward our problems and
our neighbours u-s this did affect out cattle trade across the bourder

[grassfarmer]

jerryk, Here is some info I found on Europe - it may be a year or two out of date.
Roughly speaking the EU has around 380 million consumers. They export 400,000 to 500,000 tonnes of beef a year mainly dairy bred stuff that even the Australians can't compete with on price due to export subsidies. They also import 500,000 tonnes of beef a year (possibly higher now). They are very protectionist and have strict quotas of what they buy from certain countries. The UK will probably wind up their OTM scheme this fall which will add 500,000 mature animals to the kill annually.
It is certainly worth looking at - as you say if the industry here would drop the hormones they might get sitting at the negotiating table.

[charliep]

Incognito

How you don't mind if I clip from another thread and throw in my two bits.

"Agreed on the 10MMT and the world supply factor Charles.

Without the 10 MMT buffer, as Oil World is now calling Brazil 53 MMT an further reductions imminent, what premium has been built in for rust, low acres, aphids and weather? "

I always find it interesting to see how the information influences markets and a farmers ability to lock in profitable new crop prices. I note the current market has Dec. CBT corn close to $2.50/bu. Long term this is both profitable and a place where farmers will sell. There is also a weather premium built in. $6.40/bu soybeans (Nov. 2005) are less obvious from the charts but are also likely close to a sell point for the US farmer. I also note an inverse in soybeans versus carry in corn.

Markets like this are what keeps life interesting.

[crusher]

I enjoy farming a lot more when prices are moving up, instead of down. I caution a person on booking the basis and letting the futures ride. I tried that strategy last year and it backfired (although I'm going to try it again). This time around I'm going to set upside and downside targets based on cost of production with a reasonable profit. Time to start planning like a businessman instead of hoping like a farmer.

[Incognito]

JD4ME:

Whilst it may look like I am ignorning you, I'm waiting for one of the wheatboardy types to scribble something in response to your post.

They do post on here. If they don't ...i'll give it a whirl. One thing about market action over the last 5 weeks is that no one knows more than the other person after a deke like that.

"Normal is the average of two extremes"

Best,

[JD4ME]

Thanks Incognito
was really curious about your thoughts, heck everyones thoughts for that matter the more information the better it is I have my ideas but its nice to see and have a little comversation with others too. I think I'll be locking in some of this 24.81 basis , if you take the law of avergaes though I'm thinking we may see some production problems somewhere this year and may see a rally up above the levels we are currently seeing.
Current fixed value as of today puts us .24 cents below the Feb pro.
If we were in line with the pro $204 13.5 cwrs Id be looking seriously at locking in around 30 percent of anticipated production.
I however wonder with seeding yet to take place I am going to be patient a while longer. All this while being mindful of the predictions of btween 30-50 cents less a bushel next year if there is reasonable production this year.
Again you just seem to have some good thoughts so that was why I was inquiring.
Thanks