Canola

[TOM4CWB]

Ample stocks in the system in Canada. Those holding seed are getting some coverage. Keeping a lid on things
[ATTACH]9137[/ATTACH]

Up goes Canola!!!
Up goes Soybeans!!!
Up goes Wheat!!!

Good luck in finding good yellow pea planting seed, the dry harvest killed large amounts of pea seed. Mechanical Damage 40-50% on many seed lots after cleaning.

We do live in interesting times!

Cheers

[wheatking16]

There is a lot of blue sky above the recent high.

If new highs are made, then my next levels of interest are 970 and 1018, and will reassess if they are reached.

I have no idea when or if that will happen.

The challenge of being deterministic in a probabilistic world.

[ATTACH]8998[/ATTACH]

The first level of interest of 970 now acting as support.

[farming101]

Nov update

[TOM4CWB]

It is interesting to see these statistics, where is the on farm in store inventories, they can't be in this table.

Pre-contracted presold 2021 produced Canola has moved into they system early, what does that leave for stocks of Canola July 31/22?

Inflation and doubling of inputs moves grain movement ahead even further, as tax purchases suddenly are secondary to availability concerns, and the tendency to take 2022 inputs into onfarm storage now 2021.

I was quoted $20/L for transorb that was in stock in shuttles. The Chem distributors are playing hard ball.

Volatility cuts both ways, $20 Canola is needed to break even in 2022? $18 yellow peas?

Much to quander... how to cash flow this new reality... for those who got really shorted 2021... in the really dry area of western Canada... this is magnitudes more disruptive than 2022...

So, when will Nov/Jan 2022-23 break $900/t... it is only 793nov22-794jan 23 today! it was back at $750 yesterday morning...

This is a break out in new crop 2022 Canola...

Cheers

[farming101]

Some needed information was not included.

The chart is a picture of WORLD ending stocks of canola/r apeseed based on monthly reports from the USDA FAS.

FAS estimates Canada ending stocks for Jul 2022 at 600,000 t.
AgCanada is saying 500,000 t

[TOM4CWB]

Some needed information was not included.

The chart is a picture of WORLD ending stocks of canola/r apeseed based on monthly reports from the USDA FAS.

FAS estimates Canada ending stocks for Jul 2022 at 600,000 t.
AgCanada is saying 500,000 t

Thanks very much, I do appreciate the graph being posted, and does make much more sense being World ending stocks!

How long to get to $900/t Nov 22, any estimates? How long can Soy stay down under $12/bu? can't be long till it is $15/bu Soy and $7 corn? This market could be very volatile... $24,000 /ac Ag land in Iowa?

$1000/ac expenses to grow corn 2022? $900 for Soy? How can these prices not rise?

Cheers

Cheers

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Some needed information was not included.

The chart is a picture of WORLD ending stocks of canola/r apeseed based on monthly reports from the USDA FAS.

FAS estimates Canada ending stocks for Jul 2022 at 600,000 t.
AgCanada is saying 500,000 t

That makes you far more sense if that is world stocks and not Canada.
So if egg Canada is already below f a s, and they have been behind the eight ball already all year, makes one wonder how much further it could go.

[TOM4CWB]

That makes you far more sense if that is world stocks and not Canada.
So if egg Canada is already below f a s, and they have been behind the eight ball already all year, makes one wonder how much further it could go.

I see Jan 22 Canola over $1001 now, Jan 23 $796 looks like a break out to me....

Cheers

[TechAnalyst]

Some needed information was not included.

The chart is a picture of WORLD ending stocks of canola/r apeseed based on monthly reports from the USDA FAS.

FAS estimates Canada ending stocks for Jul 2022 at 600,000 t.
AgCanada is saying 500,000 t

The other Critical information not included in the chart is the approximately 4.5 MMT cut in consumption required to leave that 4 MMT carryover.

In effect, the chart just suggests the USDA assumes 4 MMT is the minimum world carryover by the time a bit is left in every corner.

It does nothing to suggest what price is required to reduce consumption by that 4.5 MMT when all substitutes are rising in price as well.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

The other Critical information not included in the chart is the approximately 4.5 MMT cut in consumption required to leave that 4 MMT carryover.

In effect, the chart just suggests the USDA assumes 4 MMT is the minimum world carryover by the time a bit is left in every corner.

It does nothing to suggest what price is required to reduce consumption by that 4.5 MMT when all substitutes are rising in price as well.

That was my thought too.
There was no choice but to lower demand to match supply. Which in chart format makes everything look kosher, but the market is still has to come up with a price that rations the demand to make the chart into reality

[farming101]

Keep tabs on the products, oil and meal, too.
There will be substitution, canola oil supplies will be stretched, stocks will be lowered

[Rareearth]

Good question Tom
“It is interesting to see these statistics, where is the on farm in store inventories, they can't be in this table.

Pre-contracted presold 2021 produced Canola has moved into they system early, what does that leave for stocks of Canola July 31/22?”

Again its going to be a mess with growers short changed, and left uninformed, due to lack of information from exporters for sales commitments. Maybe there is a “Great grain robbery” and no one knows it yet?

What sales commitments have been made by the exporters?

[Partners]

23.12 at bunge for January..

[LWeber]

23.12 at bunge for january..

+50 basis for january this morning with large chunks to sell
+55 basis for january this aft

that wont be posted on websites

[TechAnalyst]

+50 basis for january this morning with large chunks to sell
+55 basis for january this aft

that wont be posted on websites

Jan closed at $1004.40/t today for those that missed it, making the offer $24/bu