Flu

[jazz]

Let's keep going for a bit. 66 days 164m, 72 days 328m, 78 days 656m, 84 days 1.3b 90 days 2.6b 96 days 5.2b, 102 days 8b. End of May just like I said weeks ago.

So you are predicting 100% infection rate on the planet in 3 months? So at a 1% mortality rate, you are calling for 80m deaths. You sure you want to make that call because that's pretty out there.

A good majority of the people infected have no more serious symptoms than a regular cold and recover without incident or any treatment. Stop watching CNN.

[Jagfarms]

Dr John Campbell has informative YouTube videos regarding Coronavirus.




https://youtu.be/IL7oGRKETZM

[agstar77]

Let us hope it does not invade N.A. With more guns than people in the U.S. , I can see where it could get really ugly. There are already cases of not wanting quarantines setting up in their counties.

[biglentil]

So you are predicting 100% infection rate on the planet in 3 months? So at a 1% mortality rate, you are calling for 80m deaths. You sure you want to make that call because that's pretty out there.

A good majority of the people infected have no more serious symptoms than a regular cold and recover without incident or any treatment. Stop watching CNN.

Im stating that it will likely have spread thoroughly by end of may. According to this Harvard professor 40-70% of the worlds population will be infected in the coming year. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/harvard-professor-says-40-70-people-worldwide-will-be-infected-covid-19 https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/harvard-professor-says-40-70-people-worldwide-will-be-infected-covid-19

4B * 10% death rate = 400m deaths attributed directly to the coronavirus this year is my guess, like I said before maybe they will find a miracle cure and they stop it in its tracks.
I do not want speculate on the indirect number of deaths. In such a scenario I think it's fair to say that the economic consequences would be enormous.

[helmsdale]

Real world numbers (deaths/recovered+deaths) are closer to 8% assuming those in critical condition get top notch care.

Been plugging info into a spreadsheet since Jan 22...

Number's I've arrived at so far:

death rate as a function of total infection:
-bottomed out at 2% feb 5,6 which is what everyone keeps parroting on the news. This has steadily risen from there to currently sit at 3.41%.

death rate as a function of completed cases: [deaths/(deaths+recoveries)]
-still coming down, but much slower now. 8.42%

death rate as a function of total infections 3 all the way through 14 days previous.
-3,4,5,6 are climbing after bottoming out at 2.72-feb 16, 2.87-feb 17, 3.08-feb 18, 3.26-feb-19
-7 days is steady at 3.68 for the last 3 days

All this said, this is of course using "official data" predominantly out of CCP. Reports of mass deaths in prisons and elderly care facilities with cause of death being everything but Corona. If they don't deem you worthy of a test kit, you never get entered into the data. And if we're going to be honest, an elderly individual, or prison inmate, is not going to be at the top of the list to save, therefore whats the point in wasting the test kit? Especially in the vulnerable communities, there is likely sever underreporting of cases as well as deaths.

The reverse can be said for those that are thought to be strong enough to beat the virus on their own. Younger, healthier, individuals are likely not going to get tested, and probably recover, so they may balance out the number of people that are in the vulnerable category.

The derived numbers might not be that far off the complete mark as far as a mortality rate. And what i've seen seems to put it into the high 3% range of total infections.

[helmsdale]

The derived numbers might not be that far off the complete mark as far as a mortality rate. And what i've seen seems to put it into the high 3% range of total infections.

Whether it stays in this range is totally anybody's guess. I'd argue it's likely on the *low* end since we're dealing with most of the deaths coming out of a communist system that likes to goal-seek data...

Do medical supplies get harder to source going forward if China can't restart production?

Even with a high 3% mortality, that still puts the dead into the 100's of millions column. And if we end up with Billions infected, and even the 3% that eventually die are the only ones to tie up a hospital bed, is there anywhere near the infrastructure to take on a pandemic of that nature?

Anyone believe the grand total of *2* confirmed cases in Africa? With all those CCP contractors building infrastructure on the continent? Yea... Me neither.

Even if we go with a 14 day incubation period, when some are saying it could be up to 28 days, the total confirmed caseload is going to be anywhere from 2 weeks to 4 weeks behind...

Lack of vaccine, long incubation period, long asymptomatic transmission period, and potential (I think its long beyond potential) aerosol transmission, make this a nightmare to snuff out. Only really two options:
1) Let it spread far and wide and deal, continue life as normally as possible, and suffer the long term consequences come as they may.
2) Try to snuff it out with city/county/province wide quarantines, and suffer the immediate short term effects of near zero economic output in those particular regions.

I wish us all alot of luck... I think we're going to need it.

[biglentil]

Been plugging info into a spreadsheet since Jan 22...

Number's I've arrived at so far:

death rate as a function of total infection:
-bottomed out at 2% feb 5,6 which is what everyone keeps parroting on the news. This has steadily risen from there to currently sit at 3.41%.

death rate as a function of completed cases: [deaths/(deaths+recoveries)]
-still coming down, but much slower now. 8.42%

death rate as a function of total infections 3 all the way through 14 days previous.
-3,4,5,6 are climbing after bottoming out at 2.72-feb 16, 2.87-feb 17, 3.08-feb 18, 3.26-feb-19
-7 days is steady at 3.68 for the last 3 days

All this said, this is of course using "official data" predominantly out of CCP. Reports of mass deaths in prisons and elderly care facilities with cause of death being everything but Corona. If they don't deem you worthy of a test kit, you never get entered into the data. And if we're going to be honest, an elderly individual, or prison inmate, is not going to be at the top of the list to save, therefore whats the point in wasting the test kit? Especially in the vulnerable communities, there is likely sever underreporting of cases as well as deaths.

The reverse can be said for those that are thought to be strong enough to beat the virus on their own. Younger, healthier, individuals are likely not going to get tested, and probably recover, so they may balance out the number of people that are in the vulnerable category.

The derived numbers might not be that far off the complete mark as far as a mortality rate. And what i've seen seems to put it into the high 3% range of total infections.

Really its too early to tell what a realistic mortality rate is or where it will be if hospitals are over run. Chinas data cannot be trusted, leaked doctors reports suggest only 1 in 15 deaths are counted another leak stated 1 in 40. Supposedly 40 mobile crematoriums capable of doing 6tons a day each moved into Wuhan are burning out due to overuse. Iran for example is reporting 15 deaths and only 87 confirmed cases no recovered. Reports indicate that symptoms peak in the 3rd week. 3 weeks ago there was a tiny fraction of the current cases.

[helmsdale]

Really it too early to tell what a realistic mortality rate is or where it will be if hospitals are over run. Chinas data cannot be trusted, leaked doctors reports suggest only 1 in 15 deaths are counted another leak stated 1 in 40. Supposedly 40 mobile crematoriums capable of doing 6tons a day each moved into Wuhan are burning out due to overuse. Iran for example is reporting 15 deaths and only 87 confirmed cases no recovered. Reports indicate that symtoms peak in the 3rd week. 3 weeks ago there was a tiny fraction of the current cases.

The rumor mill placed Tehran right alongside China in the outbreak of coronavirus about 3 weeks ago... I've seen nothing further on it, and it could be completely the thing of conspiracies, but when i seen Iran's death rate going parabolic compared to its caseload, and compared to what should have been its initial introduction date, it got me wondering if there wasn't something to it.

[biglentil]

The rumor mill placed Tehran right alongside China in the outbreak of coronavirus about 3 weeks ago... I've seen nothing further on it, and it could be completely the thing of conspiracies, but when i seen Iran's death rate going parabolic compared to its caseload, and compared to what should have been its initial introduction date, it got me wondering if there wasn't something to it.

Yes crazy times just today, Iran's deputy health minister tests positive for coronavirus, South Korea's Disease Response Manager commits suicide off a bridge and Hong Kong announces $10k HKD helicopter money to every adult.

[furrowtickler]

Let us hope it does not invade N.A. With more guns than people in the U.S. , I can see where it could get really ugly. There are already cases of not wanting quarantines setting up in their counties.

It’s Gun free in Baltimore.... how’s that going ??
Chicago??

[Ache4Acres]

The death rate is certainly in that 3.5% range by any measure I see. The global economic impact is going to be the big challenge. Massive money printing in response has already started.

On the other hand, I ordered a part direct from China last week and it came right away so maybe it’s a lot of media overhype as well.

[agstar77]

And those are the silly arguments that feed the gun nuts.

[jazz]

90 days to a vaccine. Are you sure you chicken littles dont want to change your death projections?
Turn off CNN then come back to reality.

The flu is no match for first world technology. Its actually a very weak virus as most flus are. The videos of people convulsing in china were because they gave them corticosteroids which ramped up the infection. Have no idea why they would do that.

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101 Israeli scientists: 'In a few weeks, we will have coronavirus vaccine'

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200206110703.htm Steroids could do more harm than good in treating coronavirus

[biglentil]

90 days to a vaccine. Are you sure you chicken littles dont want to change your death projections?
Turn off CNN then come back to reality.

The flu is no match for first world technology. Its actually a very weak virus as most flus are. The videos of people convulsing in china were because they gave them corticosteroids which ramped up the infection. Have no idea why they would do that.

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101 Israeli scientists: 'In a few weeks, we will have coronavirus vaccine'

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200206110703.htm Steroids could do more harm than good in treating coronavirus

A few years minimum Jazz testing, clinical trials, approvals, manufacturing, distribution. Wheres the Sars vaccine, Mers vaccine, Hanta Virus, HiV? Still waiting, oh right Sars vaccine turned out to make it worse. Infact betting on a vaccine is silly at this point. How about actually testing people with the symptoms? That would make sense.

[biglentil]

90 days to a vaccine. Are you sure you chicken littles dont want to change your death projections?
Turn off CNN then come back to reality.

The flu is no match for first world technology. Its actually a very weak virus as most flus are. The videos of people convulsing in china were because they gave them corticosteroids which ramped up the infection. Have no idea why they would do that.

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101 Israeli scientists: 'In a few weeks, we will have coronavirus vaccine'

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200206110703.htm Steroids could do more harm than good in treating coronavirus

A few years minimum Jazz testing, clinical trials, approvals, manufacturing, distribution. Wheres the Sars vaccine, Mers vaccine, Hanta Virus, HiV? Still waiting, oh right Sars vaccine turned out to make it worse. Infact betting on a vaccine is silly at this point. How about actually testing people with the symptoms? That would be a start.