Scientific investigations, most notably a 2023 analysis published in the journal
Science, have confirmed that scientists working for Exxon (now ExxonMobil) had a deep and sophisticated understanding of climate change as far back as the late 1970s and 1980s.
Their internal research and climate modeling were remarkably accurate, predicting global warming with "shocking skill" and demonstrating that fossil fuel combustion would cause climate change, even while the company publicly cast doubt on the science for decades.
Key Findings of Exxon's Internal Research
Despite these findings, Exxon did not share its research with the public. Instead, the company:
Science, have confirmed that scientists working for Exxon (now ExxonMobil) had a deep and sophisticated understanding of climate change as far back as the late 1970s and 1980s.
Their internal research and climate modeling were remarkably accurate, predicting global warming with "shocking skill" and demonstrating that fossil fuel combustion would cause climate change, even while the company publicly cast doubt on the science for decades.
Key Findings of Exxon's Internal Research
- Early Warnings (1977): In July 1977, Exxon senior scientist James Black warned company executives that burning fossil fuels was the most likely cause of increasing levels and could lead to dramatic environmental effects.
- Accurate Projections: Analyses show 63% to 83% of the climate projections reported by ExxonMobil scientists between 1977 and 2003 were accurate in predicting subsequent global warming.
- Accurate Modeling: Exxon scientists predicted global warming of about
per decade, a projection that closely matched subsequent observations. They even modeled that human-caused warming would first be detectable around 2000 plus or minus 5 years. - Internal Recognition of Danger: A 1982 internal company memo warned that the consequences of climate change could be "catastrophic" and required major reductions in fossil fuel combustion.
- Supertanker Research: Exxon equipped their largest supertanker, the Esso Atlantic, with scientific instruments in 1979–1982 to sample levels in the air and ocean to study how the ocean absorbs
Despite these findings, Exxon did not share its research with the public. Instead, the company:
- Funded Misinformation: For over two decades, Exxon funded groups and advertisements that promoted doubt about the severity of climate change.
- Attacked Science: Then-CEO Lee Raymond argued in 1999 that climate projections were based on "completely unproven climate models, or more often, on sheer speculation," despite having internal data that validated those models.
- Compared to Tobacco: Scholars have likened the company's approach to the tobacco industry, using similar consultants to blur the facts and protect profit margins.
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