Weather + Acres + Chinese Demand = Fund Short Covering rally in Grains

[ForumAdmin]

Is the “Dome of Doom’ heat threat through July 10^th centered over the U.S. Midwest the start of a change in weather trend for July and August?

A heat wave in Europe (France/Spain) long-term will lead to more demand for global wheat and corn.

USDA June acreage and stocks report are “wildcards” but could surprise.

Sats Canada 2026 seeding report could also surprise from excess moisture in June.

Trump asking for $11 billion in farm aid plus E15 to ne mandated.

Crude oil futures breaking below $70 is good news for 2027 input costs.

USDA June 1 hogs and pigs report friendly.

MU (the Margin King) reported a blowout quarter as the memory AI chip market remains in short supply.

+ CFTC.

[MoeAgostino]

Do you have a 2026 July basis contract and if so what are you doing rolling or pricing?

[errolanderson]

China has been silent and not confirming the U.S. ag trade deal touted by Trump. There is a meeting on July 10 in Beijing where China may address tariffs. But until then . . . .

[shtferbrains]

China has reduced it's oil imports using reserve stocks?
They are proving they are the big swing dick of oil importers.
Cut their oil imports by about the same as Canada produces, 5ml+ bpb from previous 11.5mbd.
Even at that they are still buying up to 70% of TMX capacity at the usual discounts. Up from taking about zero 2 yrs ago.
The market is not playing out at all for the oil bulls.
If they can manipulate oil pricing, grain can't be much different?
They regulate the supply by cutting imports for extended periods?
Been refining the trick with Canola?

[TASFarms]

23.4 million intended acres of canola. How much will make to harvest?

[blueversi]

23.4 million intended acres of canola. How much will make to harvest?

Not sure but be lots of acres lost now or reduced yield in northeast and east central. At 5 inches plus here since Saturday and up to 7-8 or more just south around Kelvington sounds like.

[ajl]

Lots of canola either did not get seeded or has been subsequently destroyed in the Edmonton region. Saw some today starting to flower and you can see down the rows at 60mph off the highway. Some of mine got hailed yesterday. Was already in a claim position. Claim now bigger. Grain buyers: time to buy is now.

[seldomseen]

My expectations for my crop has dropped considerably since Saturday. This big rain has been really costly.
Give everything a couple days of sunshine and the cost will become obvious!

[Dr Tone]

Got more than enough moisture from the various showers last week. Probably 10-20% if not more crop loss now do to this big rain event. Deep NE Sask.

In a week or so reality will set in for those still optimistic around here.

[makar]

Just got told at the local watering hole the reason after a 3 inch dump of rain i have standing water in my field is my drill has packers.