Iran War = “Trend is Your Friend” Short-Term BUT……

**furrowtickler** · Mar 6, 2026, 20:27

Would be awesome to have lots to sell yet

**blackpowder** · Mar 7, 2026, 09:11

One company here stepped out of the market this week with ridiculous basis jumps. $30-35-46 all since Monday. July canola. Similar on wheat.
Crusher that is full right now has a better bid for July. Thank God the futures jumped because we're paying dearly for the lack of transparency yes, but now the volatility wow.

**bucket** · Mar 7, 2026, 11:20

Originally posted by blackpowder View Post

One company here stepped out of the market this week with ridiculous basis jumps. $30-35-46 all since Monday. July canola. Similar on wheat.
Crusher that is full right now has a better bid for July. Thank God the futures jumped because we're paying dearly for the lack of transparency yes, but now the volatility wow.

I noticed basis jumps, but how much of our exported grain is subject to risk. Does it ever get to the strait of Hormuz.

Better question is how much risk is there from any prairie nitrogen plant to a farm on the southern Canadian prairies?

But excuses are excuses to phuck farmers

**blackpowder** · Mar 7, 2026, 14:04

I don't think we want the govt to start subsidizing internal fertilizer sales.
You'll have to explain how that looks.
Hedging desk costs maybe go up when you have 30 cent jumps. If they don't have a sale for it, you will pay more for them to buy it.
But yes. We have no idea what freight rates actually are. Nor do we know what's in the pipeline actually sold. Or actually in the pipeline. All these things we do pay for.
We've been warned about burdensome canola all winter. And no, I didn't lock basis either.
We can still create our own artificial basis by rolling spreads. No, something I don't pay someone to do for me, but maybe should.

**Sodbuster** · Mar 7, 2026, 14:10

Lucked out 2 weeks ago and made a basis deal on both wheat and canola for May June delivery and then put some targets in before we disembarked on a Panamá canal cruise. Sold some $8.00 and $8.20 wheat so far with a couple of targets higher, our first sales for the year.

**bucket** · Mar 7, 2026, 14:22

Government doesn't need to subsidize fertilizer sales but I think they should oversee some of the pricing practices.

Imagine if canola growers could go into the grainco or retail and say - " well shit, the strait of Hormuz is closed and fertilizer is through the roof , I guess I need an additional $5 a bushel "

Of which they would say " we don't sell grain to that area or we don't buy Iranian fertilizer - so phuck off Joe farmer"

**foragefarmer** · Mar 7, 2026, 14:38

Slippery slope there Bucket, government over seeing pricing practices.

You're finally getting paid a price you desreve on those cattle your raising.

Canadian consumers would most certainly want government to oversee pricing practices for what their currently paying for that beef of yours.

**blackpowder** · Mar 7, 2026, 16:03

Originally posted by bucket View Post

Government doesn't need to subsidize fertilizer sales but I think they should oversee some of the pricing practices.

Imagine if canola growers could go into the grainco or retail and say - " well shit, the strait of Hormuz is closed and fertilizer is through the roof , I guess I need an additional $5 a bushel "

Of which they would say " we don't sell grain to that area or we don't buy Iranian fertilizer - so phuck off Joe farmer"

Canola growers are not manufacturers, they are raw commodity producers.

**farmaholic** · Mar 7, 2026, 16:14

Originally posted by blackpowder View Post

Canola growers are not manufacturers, they are raw commodity producers.

Then so are fertilizer, chemical, seed, fuel and the land, equipment and manpower needed to grow ("manufacture") it. Other manufacturing processes add some value to it.

Is a truck engine a commodity, it's part of a greater thing.

Iran War = “Trend is Your Friend” Short-Term BUT……