Originally posted by Grain Farmer
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Friday Crop Report on a Thursday. Second week of August.
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This is the problem , not everyone needs an X9 . my farm would do well with an 770 or whatever they are called now and a 40 foot header. Personally like the 35footers because the dealers can move them on a trade easier to smaller guys and fit better to my land.
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I’ve been pricing some out some harvest power and some dealers are willing to deal on some older JD S7xx. For near new, dealers are really pushing the x series combines compared to the s7 800.
Looked at a couple claas and RB had the deals in Saskatoon this summer compared to the lots. 2022 with 140sep hrs was 540k compared to dealer with 100hrs 890k.
Hearing monettes, c2 and a larger local investor dumping a few acres to another investor group and to a few local farms. Not sure is they are shoring up their balance sheet or if they are seeing a correction coming ($5-6000/ac going rate on the open market in the last yr).
Glad I pre sold a little cnl off combine when futures were up around $700 because everything spot now looks like a money loser. Hopefully things will correct itself, especially cereals.. selling wht for anything under $8/bu is hardly a win.
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The big dogs built land base by using equity on existing land to aggressively expand. They pissed on all the little dogs and bid up land values aggressively creating the illusion of more equity to do it again and again. They nearly passed themselves going back and forth to the bank and the bankers were more than happy to lend them all they needed. What if commodity prices crater? What if interest rates rise? What if the credit market dries up? None of these thoughts ever crossed their canine brain. What if a few big dogs tuck tail and head for the door only to find there are no takers even at a steep discount?
Was at a crop tour not long ago and overheard a big dog mention how land prices will never fall. He got really upset when I mentioned how cycles always repeat, it was if I took his bone away. It's an extremely common theme for those near the top of a speculative bubble to say "its different this time". I get it, investing is emotional, people tie their identity to how many acres, how many doors, how many shares or how many digital 0's and 1's they have accumulated. When sentiment and euphoria are sky high its time to pay attention, some may be in for a 'spiritual' event including banks.
Last edited by biglentil; Aug 15, 2025, 06:36.
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Had 4 inches of rain since we combined rye grass 2 weeks ago. Rains won't help cereals much but should help a lot for the beans and later seeded canola. Guys with standing rye say its sprouted now. We are going to try barley today with old sto owned cat combineIts sunny no clouds, no smoke ,cool fresh air morning for a change.
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Originally posted by biglentil View PostThe big dogs built land base by using equity on existing land to aggressively expand. They pissed on all the little dogs and bid up land values aggressively creating the illusion of more equity to do it again and again. They nearly passed themselves going back and forth to the bank and the bankers were more than happy to lend them all they needed. What if commodity prices crater? What if interest rates rise? What if the credit market dries up? None of these thoughts ever crossed their canine brain. What if a few big dogs tuck tail and head for the door only to find there are no takers even at a steep discount?
Was at a crop tour not long ago and overheard a big dog mention how land prices will never fall. He got really upset when I mentioned how cycles always repeat, it was if I took his bone away. It's an extremely common theme for those near the top of a speculative bubble to say "its different this time". I get it, investing is emotional, people tie their identity to how many acres, how many doors, how many shares or how many digital 0's and 1's they have accumulated. When sentiment and euphoria are sky high its time to pay attention, some may be in for a 'spiritual' event including banks.
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