Sell Down to Your Sleep Point

[wheatking16]

Sell Down to Your Sleep Point


Are you lying awake at night worrying about your unsold grain?

Uncertainty in the markets can weigh heavily, especially when you're unsure whether to hold or sell.

If it’s affecting your sleep, that’s a sign it might be time to take some risk off the table.

That’s where J.P Morgan's idea of selling down to your sleep point comes in.

This isn’t about selling everything—it’s about selling enough so you can rest easy.

Locking in some sales at profitable levels can ease the mental burden and keep you focused on the season ahead.
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[bucket]

Right now its a matter of whether it will grow, not if I can sell it.

[furrowtickler]

We did last week , finally pulled the trigger on the last 1/2 of the wheat .
definitely a load off brain

[BreadWinner]

With all the wind and heat we will be wishing we sold allot less old crop. I think its the threat of a drought and lack of grain that will keep guys up till it rains.

[wrongway]

Doesn't anyone sell according to their cashflow projections anymore? tongue firmly in cheek...

[bucket]

Years ago , guys sold 50% of their projected crop help cover costs only to find out they were 100% sold at harvest in a year like this.

Holy I don't know how crypto got into this. oops.

[shtferbrains]

Years ago , guys sold 50% of their projected crypto

Crypto buyers these days

[makar]

I worked for Cargill 25 plus years ago, i told the manager i contract enough grain for the worst crop i have ever had. He thought that's a smart move then asked me how much is that. I replied 0.

[SmallTimeOperator]

I don’t have any grain left to sell. I’m not contracting for new crop either. The fall prices for canola are getting more attractive every day. But if it doesn’t rain soon, this could get interesting. Prices will go up as yields go down.

It has only rained 1.25 inches here in May and nothing coming in the forecast compared to last years 5 inches by June 3. So we are dry compared to last year. And, it’s hard to make that up. Last year 5 more inches from June 3 to July 3. Then not a drop July 4-Aug 4. And the crop was average nothing special. Cross our fingers for June rain. If not, it’s over.

Cereal crops here already look stressed with skinny leaves. Where is the canola? Is it still alive? Looks like chem fallow everywhere.

I’m no market guru, but if i still had grain, of any type, I’d either keep holding or sell at some point and buy call options to replace it if I could afford to. That would be my strategy until we get considerable rain in the prairies. Call options for fall crop or do nothing and wait are both valid strategies in my mind for new crop. I was thinking of doing some DDC on canola for fall, but with no rain in sight, it’s just too risky. Why lock it in just to get nailed with a buyout later if it doesn’t rain.

[Old Cowzilla]

Might be more grain buyers who sell imputs who are having trouble sleeping at night these days. 10 bu canola doesn't cover much.