Canola Weekly Close

[wheatking16]

Canola has its highest weekly closing price since October 2023.

[zeefarmer]

What price would we be at if we didn't have the most recent Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola?

[wheatking16]

What price would we be at if we didn't have the most recent Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola?

The tariffs are on oil and meal.

China did not impose a tariff on Canola seed.

[zeefarmer]

Let me reword that then.

Roughly what price would we be at on Canadian canola seed if the Chinese removed the most recent tariffs on Canadian canola meal and canola oil?

Forgive me for not wording the question correctly. Seeding crazies and tiredness has set in.

[farming101]

my thoughts,
Possibly where we are right now to another 25 higher?
But for sure without the oil/meal announcement from China and the US tariff news we would not have gone done to 573 or so in the July contract

[wheatking16]

Let me reword that then.

Roughly what price would we be at on Canadian canola seed if the Chinese removed the most recent tariffs on Canadian canola meal and canola oil?

Forgive me for not wording the question correctly. Seeding crazies and tiredness has set in.

At the current price level. IMO

[TechAnalyst]

At the current price level. IMO

I agree. It looks like China played the market with the ruthlessness that the world has come to expect.

They did load up with canola oil before the tariff announcement. March trade data was just released and it confirmed that in the first three months of the year, they imported 131,205 mt of crude canola oil from Canada. That was already the highest annual total since 2022. In 2024, they took a revised 14,798 mt. In 2023 - 121,287 mt and in 2022 - 185,109.

In the meantime, March data confirmed they used the price break that they caused to import 471,757 mt of canola seed compared to 161,645 mt in Feb.

In the first 3 months they took 1.026 mmt of seed compared to Japan’s 479,000 mt and Mexico in 3rd place at 251,000 mt. The EU countries combined would have been 3rd at 474,000 mt but individually, they were behind Mexico.

Given the exceptional export pace of canola seed in April, they surely kept taking advantage of the situation although we won’t know for sure until early June.

Given that, it is unlikely they would have needed much more canola oil, not right now anyway. And the price has likely rallied as much as it would have otherwise as the trade started to realize what was going on.

My 2 cents.

[wheatking16]

I agree. It looks like China played the market with the ruthlessness that the world has come to expect.

They did load up with canola oil before the tariff announcement. March trade data was just released and it confirmed that in the first three months of the year, they imported 131,205 mt of crude canola oil from Canada. That was already the highest annual total since 2022. In 2024, they took a revised 14,798 mt. In 2023 - 121,287 mt and in 2022 - 185,109.

In the meantime, March data confirmed they used the price break that they caused to import 471,757 mt of canola seed compared to 161,645 mt in Feb.

In the first 3 months they took 1.026 mmt of seed compared to Japan’s 479,000 mt and Mexico in 3rd place at 251,000 mt. The EU countries combined would have been 3rd at 474,000 mt but individually, they were behind Mexico.

Given the exceptional export pace of canola seed in April, they surely kept taking advantage of the situation although we won’t know for sure until early June.

Given that, it is unlikely they would have needed much more canola oil, not right now anyway. And the price has likely rallied as much as it would have otherwise as the trade started to realize what was going on.

My 2 cents.

Yeah, a panic-driven sell-off.

The narrative still seems to be about tariffs on Canola seed.

[Sodbuster]

Funds currently net long 80,000 canola contracts, what is the next level of resistance? Still sitting on some of my old crop and wondering where to put my next target at.

[sumdumguy]

If it stays dry like this, who knows where the top is.