Canola production estimate

[furrowtickler]

What was the last estimate, 22 mmt?
will be 18 or less I think

[LEP]

Estimates are definitely on the high side. We had 13 inches of moisture up to July 3 and nothing since.

I think we are looking at 80 % of average.

[WiltonRanch]

She’s a doozy. For all the timely rains I’ve had some fields are outright terrible lucky to make 20bu. Other fields look okay. Still lots of aborted flowers from heat.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

This is some of the nicest canola around, from the road it looks decent. Than upon closer inspection at least 50% of pods aborted.

That accurately describes most of the lush looking Fields I have seen. I doubt that satellite imagery can differentiate that from a fully podded field.
Some of the fields that just look terrible from the road don't have any less viable pods on them.

My estimates of our own canola is dropping daily.

[WiltonRanch]

Talking with my input guy. He’s thinking lots of canola crops lucky to make 20. Usually this country if you do a job should do 40-50 but between drought at wrong time and hail it’s probably 50% of normal. He’s looking around beyond and seeing on better ground a shit show. There’s pockets that look okay but more poor stands. This is hwy16 parkland region which grows big bushels and in trouble. These dickheads short the market I hope end up wearing a bloody barrel. Cereals especially wheat are holding on well. Seen some decent oat fields as well. If wheat fills decent which it will now with this rain here will be good yields. Canola on the other hand is forked and average in best places, all the way into the US.

[LEP]

Durum here was seeded last. Also likely 80% at best.

Lentils are half between 20 and 25, with the rest fooked.

[the big wheel]

crop from the road is not the crop you walk into, canola is relatively tall so very deceiving as to the potential you can walk easily through it which is the first sign it isnt good and then all the aborted pods and what is there is small shrunken. easily less than half of what it looks like. And with 12 dollar canola what a mega farm problem coming up but who cares the Chinese just purchased another 2 huge tracks of land. Is this not becoming a security issue?

[jamesb]

Here in SE Sask its for sure going to be a mixed bag, for different reasons, excessive rain after seeding flooded out lots of low spots. We see flowering now in those low spots that mostly drowned out but are now dry. We put fungicides on some of the canola. Sclerotinia is showing up on some fields, I expect it will be ugly in some places. Because we started with a moisture surplus, heat stress hasn't been as bad but nothing likes the intense heat. One good thing with the straighting canola is being able to let it ripen standing as there is such a vast difference in stages in the fields. We planted LL 345, 350, 356 and a little PioneerLL. Its gonna be interesting to see the differences as some look better than others. Its been a strange year from dry to very wet to dry again.

[furrowtickler]

Hopefully canola gains back some after the pummelling yesterday

[furrowtickler]

Will be way more than 2 bus drop , more like 6-8