Canola production estimate

[WiltonRanch]

These crop estimates regarding canola are complete speculation until it is in the bin. Even with ground truthing it’s still a wild guess. Corn, beans, wheat yield estimates are far simpler and quicker to do. Canola you need to dedicate a considerable amount of time to each field and then margin of error varies considerably even this late in the game. I’ve had crop insurance out to asses fields and what their seed count vs my estimate and what I ended up getting were completely different numbers. Wheat is bloody easy compared. I went south on July 25 and came back August 5. Couldn’t believe how much crops went backwards throughout the east side of Alberta.

[goalieguy847]

Had bunge out last yr assessing our 3017 nexera canola. Told me 30 to 35 bushels after counting pods etc etc.
yielded 54.

Even those in the know...
Dont know.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Seed size makes such a drastic difference to the yield. Take the extreme, and double the diameter of a seed and the yield goes up by a factor of 8.

[westernvicki]

Pods aborted. Seed size smaller.
Heat blast on flowers fewer pods.

Must be the same forecasters who called for the bumper crop in July.

[WiltonRanch]

Seed size is everything. Making any sort of estimate before seeds are hardened a bit a crap shoot. Wheat if you peg in an average seed weight you’re within an acceptable range. What I’m seeing in wheat right now I can plan accordingly. Canola you just don’t know.

[Dr Tone]

Down $45 already this morning. They must think it’s even bigger than originally estimated.

[zeefarmer]

No, its China responding to tariffs we put on EV's and other products

[jdg364]

I could kick Trudeau right in the nuts! A very small percentage of the population want a EV and to anger a large/finiky trading partner over something so small is insane.

[Old Cowzilla]

Let the trade wars begin China also announced a possible duty on Canadian chemicals. Gonna phone local ag retailer to see how much they dropped

[BTO780]

Dollar here dollar there won’t affect me. Didn’t grow any this yr … thankfully!
Most here is maybe 10, some lower so an uptick won’t do much for the pocket books. Crop insurance will pay the bills this yr.

The places I thought had 50-60 canola are 30-35 at best. Friend of my brothers is in one of these areas.

By Jan - Feb the crooks will realize things weren’t so rosey.