Friday Crop report on a Thursday! Week 2.

[SASKFARMER]

Rent decrease would be nice but till the guys paying 150 and up are gone it won’t change. Once the investors leave the building that will happen till then it won’t.

[the big wheel]

Fert is alot higher than those numbers, seed are we using our own everything because canola and peas or anything other than barley, chem is way short if you have a crop grasshoppers aphids etc spring burnoff, repairs, trucking, insurance and thats an issue our sask party should be talking about alot more than carbon tax when your insurance cost is way more than some of your inputs to seed and you have no coverage thats an issue, and what about booze so you forget how stupid you are to do something that has very little probability of being positive?
and what about fuel?

[TASFarms]

Things look very positive on this farm. Grain prices have fallen some. If there is a big crop the prices will fall even more and the games will begin with no bid,or full/booked until….. . Like Gary Zimmer said “If I was president of the US I would make nitrogen fertilizer so expensive that you would learn to farm without buying it “. This farm is learning how to grow better crops on less fertilizer. It will require more management. Simple questions in buying inputs. “Does it kill biology,or help it? If it messes up biology start looking for a better replacement.

[Old Cowzilla]

Guys used to farm with min amount of fert those where called mixed farms. 75 bucks for n. I must be on pretty bad dirt you can add about another $75 for phos,pot,and sulphur.

[Herc]

I have some wildly different input numbers...
Axial will be 22 on its own.. a nice chem like stellar is 7 ....
our rents arent that bad.. and 75$ fert covers 100 lbs actual N...

Give or take

In all seriousness, has anyone gone back to their landlords and discussed a rent decrease? I talked to one recently and they are actually open to the idea. We increased big time when crop valuws went up but when i showed them these numbers...
I asked them..
if i pay you 100$/ ac.. thats more than i can make if i have a good ,( 70 bushel) wheat crop.
It kind of opened their eyes.

70 bushel wheat crop and u can only make $100/ac. Time to phone ritchies…..

[furrowtickler]

70 bushel wheat crop and u can only make $100/ac. Time to phone ritchies…..

Ya , it’s reality check for some
Profit margins the next few years are about to shock a few . Especially when they don’t get 80 bus / ac .
put 1/2 gross in their calculations with lower crop prices and god forbid lower than their average yields.
a few actually mocked at those who were logically paying reasonable rents .
Well , now trying to reduce rentals ?? Sorry , you made the bed ridiculing others who were reasonable . Suck it up , pay up , you cost everyone else more than necessary.
Some think that will not happen lol
there are some in a fantasy land , best of luck to your endeavours.
a few of us realize that $1000 / acre gross is fantasy even in the best of areas long term .
best of luck going forward.

[blackpowder]

Don't blame the players for the rules of the game. Rents followed values. Demand.

[Hamloc]

"REAL WORLD 2024"

50 x $7.50. $375.00
Less:
Taxes. $10.00
Chem $25.00
Fert $75.00
Seed. $20.00
Equip $100.00 (Cheap Equip!)
Wages $20.00
Land. $125.00 (Cheap Rent!)
etc: $25.00. (Optimistic)

Net. ($25.00 Loss)

Times are good down on the farm??

At $100 an acre on equipment is this both depreciation and repairs?
Crop and hail insurance $15-$20 an acre.
I estimate my cost per acre on wheat at closer to $450, canola another $30 per acre.

[SASKFARMER]

My only comment is each farm is different

if your land is paid off it’s different, if you have zero opp it’s different, if you farm in western sask or east it’s different, if you get rain it’s different. Lots of things change the above breakdown. To one farm 50 is great yield to others 100 is achievable but so is 10. Mother Nature is the wild card.

[Taiga]

Wow lots of seeding this weekend and 15C and now snowing today. Hope we gets lots of wet

[Herc]

My only comment is each farm is different

if your land is paid off it’s different, if you have zero opp it’s different, if you farm in western sask or east it’s different, if you get rain it’s different. Lots of things change the above breakdown. To one farm 50 is great yield to others 100 is achievable but so is 10. Mother Nature is the wild card.

I’d go a bit further and say if ur near the black soil zone ur in better shape than the rest. Most years, but not all…..

Alot of big crops get pulled off in the northwest….

[Crestliner]

"REAL WORLD 2024"

50 x $7.50. $375.00
Less:
Taxes. $10.00
Chem $25.00
Fert $75.00
Seed. $20.00
Equip $100.00 (Cheap Equip!)
Wages $20.00
Land. $125.00 (Cheap Rent!)
etc: $25.00. (Optimistic)

Net. ($25.00 Loss)

Times are good down on the farm??

I am really curious on how the guys seeding on April 10th made out. That crop has to be in the bin by now or very close to it.

Also curious to know how "Real World" 2024 numbers are looking at this point.

[fcr]

My numbers would be 100 for fert and 30 for chem, but our rent is less so end result the same.Canola numbers look worse.

[Grahamp]

I think your numbers are close although I think 125 rent is probably a bit above average. Maybe contracts signed last fall. (Unless you are where the beautiful people farm but then they should be getting better than 50 bushels.) I’d say you’re a little low on fert and chem especially if guys seed treated or fungicided. Taxes should be included in your expenses or part of your land costs. But regardless a 50 bushel HRS wheat crop is going to be at a minimum $350-$400. For most a 50 bushel crop is going to be a money loser.

I had ours just over $400 but am growing a high yielding feed wheat that I’m optimistic will yield 65-70 in the high $6’s or low 7’s. The little bit of hard red we have will probably be in the mid to high 50’s so just break even. What an industry where a 55 bushel wheat crop breaks even.

We are in the Yorkton area and our early seeded cereals (wheat and oats) seeded late April early May look quite nice. We thought the value was there to fungicide.