A.I.

[agstar77]

Seems to be more discussion about the threats and promises of A
I. Could it be used to manipulate financial markets including grain markets. Is this a pandora's box? A.I. and crypto could pose an existential threat .

[Guest]

I prefer the real thing if you know what I mean.

[wheatking16]

I would not worry about AI manipulating grain or financial markets.

[blackpowder]

Explain Wk16.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

I would not worry about AI manipulating grain or financial markets.

I would agree. At least as far as it would affect what a producer receives or an end user pays over the long run.
But will that hold true on every time scale?
Could AI be better at gaming the system on extremely short time scales?

[agstar77]

It is not A.I. , but the motives of entities using it. For example when computer trading started there were those that tried to manipulate markets.

[LEP]

It is not A.I. , but the motives of entities using it. For example when computer trading started there were those that tried to manipulate markets.

It is still going on. Look at the huge short position in canola.

[wheatking16]

Explain Wk16.

A couple of thoughts.

I feel the term manipulating the markets is misused.

For example, how many farmers or traders with a long position concern themselves with manipulation in rising markets?

It appears that accusations of market manipulation most often occur in declining markets or when the price moves against one's position.

For example, I strongly believe that the 2020-2022 price run-up was more due to speculation than supply and demand, supported by the price retracement since then. Perhaps there have been accusations of market manipulation on the way up, but I am unaware of any.

Large traders can and do move the market, but focusing on the idea of manipulation discounts the reality of the market, which is the price and the direction in which it is moving.

AI has an advantage in processing large datasets quickly. Still, the secret to beating the market is riding price trends, not catching the top or the bottom.

While AI-powered funds and traders will participate, it is important to understand that all markets, traditional or cash, move similarly as the common denominator is the human participant.

AI will speed up and assist with analysis. Still, I do not believe it will manipulate the market UNLESS it is used to distribute misleading data to benefit the user's position.

Of course, the talking heads on TV and the grain trade do this each day.

As a result, I choose to spend my time on the reality of the situation, which is the price and not worry about AI.

Everything you need to know can be found in the price chart. IMO

[TASFarms]

When you can sell shares or contracts that you don’t own but can “borrow” how is there not any manipulation

[dave4441]

A couple of thoughts.

I feel the term manipulating the markets is misused.

For example, how many farmers or traders with a long position concern themselves with manipulation in rising markets?

It appears that accusations of market manipulation most often occur in declining markets or when the price moves against one's position.

For example, I strongly believe that the 2020-2022 price run-up was more due to speculation than supply and demand, supported by the price retracement since then. Perhaps there have been accusations of market manipulation on the way up, but I am unaware of any.

Large traders can and do move the market, but focusing on the idea of manipulation discounts the reality of the market, which is the price and the direction in which it is moving.

I cant get over how companies have tweeted prices and bullish info that is designed only to get the farmer NOT to sell his grain which increases the value of the grain companies long postion. Pea prices that are up to $2/bushel above the price they are actually willing to pay the when the farmer calls. And no one calls people out for that.

I was once told by a trader to tell everyone exactly what I think. 50% will believe me and 50% won't and has no affect.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

When you can sell shares or contracts that you don’t own but can “borrow” how is there not any manipulation

But those same shorts all have to be bought back eventually. Putting a floor under the market.
The exception being a penny stock which could actually go to zero and stay there.

[TASFarms]

What happens when they just make new contracts/stocks. Smoke and mirrors. How do you end up with negative futures market. The California power crisis over 2 decades ago was pure market manipulation. There was millions and millions poured into consultants to figure how to manipulate the market. When the power company had enough of being screwed they just produced what was paid for in the futures market. So to think AI can’t manipulate markets I would disagree.

[wheatking16]

When you can sell shares or contracts that you don’t own but can “borrow” how is there not any manipulation

AlbertaFarmer5 has a decent reply to your question.

[LEP]

I cant get over how companies have tweeted prices and bullish info that is designed only to get the farmer NOT to sell his grain which increases the value of the grain companies long postion. Pea prices that are up to $2/bushel above the price they are actually willing to pay the when the farmer calls. And no one calls people out for that.

I was once told by a trader to tell everyone exactly what I think. 50% will believe me and 50% won't and has no affect.

Unless you attend a Viterra "marketing" webinar or meeting. Every one that I have gone to over the past 5 years can be summed up as "The best time to sell is now" .

They were projecting a 6mmt canola carryout. I think AAFC is around 1.5.

Boggles the mind why I bother reading their analysis.

[WiltonRanch]

Unless you attend a Viterra "marketing" webinar or meeting. Every one that I have gone to over the past 5 years can be summed up as "The best time to sell is now" .

They were projecting a 6mmt canola carryout. I think AAFC is around 1.5.

Boggles the mind why I bother reading their analysis.

Yes Viterra only contacts me when markets are tough with a “special” and gloom of overproduction somewhere. Must be a sad lot there when the reps are meeting with their market analysts. Like an NFU meeting.