market manipulation glyphosate

[sawfly]

had visit from chem dealer today.
we talked about fert prices chem prices etc.
he talked about a general 3% price increase in chem prices and that buct m might drop some . 1$/acre

then he says , glyphosate might be in short supply. i say what, your kidding right.

Turns out it might only be cheap glyphosate thats in short supply

so whats going on,there should be lots around. then he goes on to say that when they placed their orders ,
they had to take a pallet of the higher priced brand name stuff to get a pallet of generic.

80% of his market is the cheap stuff, so he would like to order 80/20

now we get into speculation,

your monsanto, you control 90% of the active ingedient that goes into the generics. so if you short the active ing. to the generics and create a shortage of the cheap stuff.

the dealer is sold out of the cheap generic, but funny theres lots of the high price preium brand out there. We should be thankful we can count on monsanto when the generics let us down.

they must figure they have succesfully killed clearout and are takeing back the glyphosate market on their terms.

[SASKFARMER3]

Lately what a chem dealer tells me I take with a grain of salt.
They are been sold a line of BS from their suppliers who say that the Generics aren't hurting their bottom line but really they have.
Some $120,000,000.00 million to be exact. The free trips etc meetings all over the world etc I am entitled to my entitlements. Sounds like the liberals. For years us farmers have been fed a line of BS from these suppliers. Oh it snowed in Bangladesh have to increase fertilizer prices because a ship might cross through waters near it etc. FARMERS WAKE UP your at the bottom of the food chain because you believe all the BS these guys are giving you. Monsanto isn't your friend.

[Vader]

Ahh! But Cargill and ADM are.

[SASKFARMER3]

No Cargill and ADM aren't either, as farmers they have got most of us by the balls. As farming got tighter to keep there sales they opened up financing positions etc. well if farming doesn't improve they will eventually have you and me working for them. SORRY THATS THE FACTS. But if we can be one step ahead and get more educated on whats really going on in the real world then maybe just maybe we can create policy in this country that if in the farmers best interest not keeping people working and cheap food.

[northfarmer]

the demand elasticity for glyphosate has been been shown as very strong....total usage of glyhosate has risen dramatically in response to lower retail prices both here in Canada and other parts of the world....manufacutring capapacity I am told is at 100%..

....so I have already booked my low cost/no serice glyphosate for the spring to ensure I can not only get it, but get it in totes.....

I do beleive Monsanto does manufacture ingredients for other labels and remanufacturers.....and that they are servicing the existing contracts but cannot expand them due to manufacutring constraints.....it is unlikely them or others will make incremental capital expansions given the maturity of the market and lower margins on sales......

so do not get caught up in your conspiracy theory thoughts, the patent is off and anyone can now make it as long as they can overcome the hurdles for registration and resale...and of course they can make decent returns doing so.....

as such we must ensure that OUI type capabilities remain so that as farmers we are not shut out of being able to get equivalent products from other global manufacturers that can enter our market....there has to be fair and impartial balance to the protectionist lobbying of those who currently vend into our market place....IMHO....

plus glyhosate prices are the least of our problems.....how about the cost of grassy weed control and other herbicides that we have only seen cost increases for....i can live with the lower csot of my glyhosates, the real issue should be focussed on other chemisitries that are now and soon will be off patent

[wd9]

Given the value appreciation of the dollar in the last year, shouldn't the chemistries have gone down 25%? Just asking. Grain went down by that amount immediately. Imagine where it would be today. Sorry, just ramblings.

[sawfly]

your right on that,about wild oat sprays.
it sure looks like their reinforceing the walls around north amercia (with GROU)to prevent any real competition in generics.

a mechanism for paying a share of orginal regestration costs and a complete opening of the border for off patent generics is what we need.

anything less will show that the chem companies write the rules for the govt.

we shall see if harpers govt. sides with the farmer & taxpayer or chem companies.

[Southpaw]

I certainly agree that Croplife and the Chem co's are trying to keep generic chems out of Canada. But we (farmers) have a problem. Are the generic actives identical and are the carriers registered? Australia had a problem with generic chem that the carriers are not registered or the actives are not quite the same. There was a cargo of canola rejected going into France as well as Japan. We, as an exporting country can't afford these types of problems.

[poorboy]

Why do you think that the chemical companies are trying so hard to get the OUI program shut down?

Over 80% of the chemicals we use in agriculture in Canada are coming off of patent in the next 5 years. You will be able to buy Horizon BTM for $5/acre if you have the OUI program in effect. It will not be any cheaper if you do not have the OUI program. Why, you ask, because in my opinion it is not worth the time of a Chinese company to bother doing the testing or labeling, etc for the Canadian market. It is just too small. When you look at the volume of chemical in a wild oat product, it is way less than in a glyphosate. I have no idea if it cost less to manufacture, but I would be it is even less than glyposate.

Right now with the OUI program, the product can come into canada if it is deemed to be equivalent to a currently registered product. If we lose this, we have to ask ourselves if the Canadian market is big enough for anyone to bother making generic herbicides for us.

Some of the forums from the US talk about current pricing on Clearout 41 at $9/us gallon. I think that this works out to about $2.75/liter canadian for purchase today.

This glyphosate thing is a smoke and mirrors deal. The big chemicals companies are not that worried about glyphosate. They are worried that the Achieve, Horizon, Puma Super, Buctril M, Thumper, etc. are all able to be imported soon if the OUI stays in place.

Some companies are trying to protect themselves from this. For instance Syngenta is introducing Axial herbicide and getting out of Achieve. Coincidence that Axial has a new patent and Achieve is about to expire? I think not!

I am just a farmer, and have not bothered to send in my letter to the government in support of the OUI program, but the more I think about it, I realize it could have a huge impact on my input costs.

[cropduster]

So at 2.75/litre for Clearout(not a volume purhase)just how much are the Mann boys making thru FNA(Agracity,whoever that is)????No wonder PMRA is a little twitchy about dealing with these guys!!