The deflation report

[AlbertaFarmer5]

All talk about EU and Ukraine but virtually no mention about China.
That's the big gap in input shortages and about everything else.
They are going through one of their weird authoritarian periods.
This one is called "covid zero". Lockdowns and mandates take priority over all else. No end in sight.
Feeding the people could easily become more of an issue. Their economy had some problems prior to this.
Are they the 2nd largest economy?
A return to totalitarian rule at it's worst.

On the ag input side, I lump China and Europe together, just for different reasons. China's is more self-inflicted, with the lockdowns etc. Even having put outright bans on fertilizer exports. They import much of their energy, and even their domestic energy production costs have gone way up.
Some analysts are going as far as to suggest that China is enforcing these lockdowns because of shortages of energy and inputs and budgets. So if you lock down the population they don't consume as many of these things. Doesn't exactly seem like a good long-term solution. The base ingredients for nearly all of our inputs regardless of where they are made or sold, come from china.
The only country even remotely capable of scaling up production to meet the shortfall on short notice would be Germany. Who can't afford the energy or the natural gas inputs right now.

Long story short, I don't buy the theory that we are being gouged for inputs when you look at the big picture in the rest of the world.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Tying the last three posts together, one might go as far as to suggest that China may have actually been putting food production ahead of the comfort and wants of their population. Banning fertilizer exports, hoarding food and inputs, diverting huge resources to attempt to mitigate the effects of the current drought. The lockdowns may even fit into this category. It seems that they are prioritizing food production as opposed to Europe.

[LEP]

I don't know, but if we had a government that was led by knowledgeable practical people wouldn't they encourage or incentify industry/business to find local solutions to imported essential items? Maybe even self sufficiency in energy and fertilizer, herbicides, etc.

Let's make sure we aren't reliant on imported phos and nitrogen. N is easy. Phos needs work.

[TOM4CWB]

Tying the last three posts together, one might go as far as to suggest that China may have actually been putting food production ahead of the comfort and wants of their population. Banning fertilizer exports, hoarding food and inputs, diverting huge resources to attempt to mitigate the effects of the current drought. The lockdowns may even fit into this category. It seems that they are prioritizing food production as opposed to Europe.

FedEx pulls forward advice on earnings…20% down… closing offices and

Economy sputtering…
Cdn$ lowest since 2020…75.2 Dow down 400 more…



If the central banks use a sledgehammer on our economy… we will have difficulty… as Fed government spending seems without restraint…