The deflation report

[ajl]

Yes I know that deflation doesn't exist, however regular gas at UFA Vegreville is 1.326. That actually compares to price levels from a number of years ago. If you remove the carbon tax, which did not exist then, you will find that the underlying rack price lower today. Oats are bid at $4 in Camrose today which is down somewhat from the $9 plus last spring. Apparently hyper deflation is a thing look out below. Farm input costs, just like back in the 80's are the last to go down of course. Ritchie will be busy.

[TASFarms]

Zellers is making a come back. Is that not an example of deflation

[Old Cowzilla]

Zellers is making a come back. Is that not an example of deflation

Zellers is kinda a dollar store of the 70's so maybe tough times are closer than we think.

[furrowtickler]

[furrowtickler]

Fertilizer up again
Herbicides up again

[TOM4CWB]

Interesting chart on commodities:



As we get to Dec22, the year on year change will decide significantly… it is a matter of how these benchmarks are created…

Fear is driving the Fed and the markets…

[furrowtickler]

This needs to sink in with the ag industry as a whole …… as they drive up inputs to unprecedented levels .
For those with poor crops it’s going to be a long winter .

[ajl]

This needs to sink in with the ag industry as a whole …… as they drive up inputs to unprecedented levels .
For those with poor crops it’s going to be a long winter .

This is what amazes me is that the only place there is inflation is ag inputs. This is true almost all the time. Collusion among suppliers is well tolerated in the canuckistanian ag space apparently. My barometer of inflation, pump gas, can be had around here in the $1.20's now.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

This is what amazes me is that the only place there is inflation is ag inputs. This is true almost all the time. Collusion among suppliers is well tolerated in the canuckistanian ag space apparently. My barometer of inflation, pump gas, can be had around here in the $1.20's now.

Natural gas is a major input into most of our Ag inputs. And a lot of the places that make those inputs also import most of their natural gas. And a lot of fertilizer used to be made in those same places. In the case of europe, they have chosen to keep the lights on over making fertilizer.

This is one of those hypothetical scenarios I had often wondered about. If push comes to shove and there isn't enough of something to go around, would society have the foresight to make sure that agriculture gets first priority so they can continue to eat, or would they put their own short-term comfort and convenience ahead of the actual necessities of life?

I think we have our answer playing out in real time in Europe right now. Greenhouses shutting down because they can't get energy, or reselling their energy because it's more profitable than making food. Fertilizer plants shutting down, etc. Personally, I was more optimistic that we would do the right thing.

[shtferbrains]

All talk about EU and Ukraine but virtually no mention about China.
That's the big gap in input shortages and about everything else.
They are going through one of their weird authoritarian periods.
This one is called "covid zero". Lockdowns and mandates take priority over all else. No end in sight.
Feeding the people could easily become more of an issue. Their economy had some problems prior to this.
Are they the 2nd largest economy?
A return to totalitarian rule at it's worst.