North Dakota Drought…2022

[TOM4CWB]

From the ;
Weekly Update from the Red River Farm Network

Monday, April 04, 2022

“Drought Conditions Expand in the Region – More than 72 percent of North Dakota is classified as being in moderate to extreme drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. That’s a six percent increase in the past week. Extreme drought conditions persist in the northwestern part of the state with the entire western half of North Dakota experiencing at least some form of moderate to severe drought. The drought conditions extend into western and central South Dakota.

Alarming Forecast – NDSU Climatologist Adnan Akyuz says the three-month outlook for the North Dakota is worrisome. “If we look into next growing season from June to August, we will see the same pattern of above normal and normal temperatures and below normal in precipitation. This is alarming as it may indicate a repeat of the summer of 2021.” It may be worse for areas already experiencing extreme drought conditions.“

[TOM4CWB]

RRFN Ukraine:

“Port City Hit by Russian Air Strike – Russia bombed the port city of Odessa Sunday, including an oil refinery and three fuel storage facilities. This move is seen as an attempt to cut off the fuel supply for Ukrainian forces. Odessa is Ukraine’s largest Black Sea port and is an important hub for grain shipments.


Ukrainian Tenacity – Since the Russian invasion five weeks ago, Grand Forks, North Dakota farmer Paul Sproule has had two Zoom calls with Ukrainian farmers. “There’s so much optimism with these gentlemen; every one of them said they would win this war.” Sproule’s connection to these farmers is linked a tour group he’s hosted in recent years that was made up of Ukrainian farmers and businesspeople. After a 20-year moratorium, Ukrainian farmers were able to purchase farmland in 2021. Now, much of that land is a war zone. Sproule said these farmers are dealing with shortages of fuel and other crop inputs, but still plan to plant 45-to-55 percent of their cropland. The biggest challenge is with infrastructure. “Even if the war ends today, there is so much damage to rail, roads and their ports.” The Ukrainian farmers said the Russian soldiers are leaving mines in their fields as they retreat. Sproule praised these farmers for their “tenacity.” Photo credit: Roman Grynshyn, Ukraine

A Fragile Food System – Ukrainian farmers are expected to plant fewer acres this year. United Kingdom-based Green Square Agro Consulting Director Mike Lee tells the Red River Farm Network it’s difficult to get a good yield forecast for Ukraine. “We think 40 percent of the planting area is at risk this spring and possibly won’t be planted. It’s not only the issues of location, but access to fuel, tractor drivers, spare parts, fertilizer and other things.” The Ukrainian government is encouraging farmers to plant crops that can be consumed domestically. Lee is not sure how realistic it is for growers to make major switches from planting corn, soybeans and sunflowers to planting buckwheat and peas. “There isn’t sufficient seed for commodity crops in the country at the moment, so will there be sufficient seeds in the supply chain in the countries to provide the other crops?” Lee says the Russia-Ukraine war shows a fragile food production system. Hear a portion of the interview.“

[beaverdam]

From the ;
Weekly Update from the Red River Farm Network

Monday, April 04, 2022

“Drought Conditions Expand in the Region – More than 72 percent of North Dakota is classified as being in moderate to extreme drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. That’s a six percent increase in the past week. Extreme drought conditions persist in the northwestern part of the state with the entire western half of North Dakota experiencing at least some form of moderate to severe drought. The drought conditions extend into western and central South Dakota.

Alarming Forecast – NDSU Climatologist Adnan Akyuz says the three-month outlook for the North Dakota is worrisome. “If we look into next growing season from June to August, we will see the same pattern of above normal and normal temperatures and below normal in precipitation. This is alarming as it may indicate a repeat of the summer of 2021.” It may be worse for areas already experiencing extreme drought conditions.“

Good find Tom, thanks for posting info.

[TOM4CWB]

From the ;
Weekly Update from the Red River Farm Network

Monday, April 04, 2022

“Drought Conditions Expand in the Region – More than 72 percent of North Dakota is classified as being in moderate to extreme drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. That’s a six percent increase in the past week. Extreme drought conditions persist in the northwestern part of the state with the entire western half of North Dakota experiencing at least some form of moderate to severe drought. The drought conditions extend into western and central South Dakota.

Alarming Forecast – NDSU Climatologist Adnan Akyuz says the three-month outlook for the North Dakota is worrisome. “If we look into next growing season from June to August, we will see the same pattern of above normal and normal temperatures and below normal in precipitation. This is alarming as it may indicate a repeat of the summer of 2021.” It may be worse for areas already experiencing extreme drought conditions.“

So… the Billion$ Question… when should we start seeding in 2022?

The scene out front of my house… the frost went out of the low areas last Friday…



Normal seeding start Date… May 4th… historical best yields usually are May 5-26th in our area.

What do we do in 2022???

Early Seed Peas and Wheat???

[furrowtickler]

So… the Billion$ Question… when should we start seeding in 2022?

The scene out front of my house… the frost went out of the low areas last Friday…



Normal seeding start Date… May 4th… historical best yields usually are May 5-26th in our area.

What do we do in 2022???

Early Seed Peas and Wheat???

That’s a big question, one very big concern other than wheat , there is zero extra seed . So I would be cautious about early seeding . In dry areas without snow , the gamble begins

[Sheepwheat]

Tom. I just red an article about early seeding somewhere. Do wheat ASAP. If the soil is seed able, you won’t be sorry the article says. Soil temp means nothing for wheat.

[LEP]

In my experience, early seeding is riskier than start of May. Atleast for our area. Less because of frost, more because it is further from the next rain.

We have had early cereals be too advanced before significant rain happens. Once that happens it doesn't matter how much rain comes it won't respond.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

That’s a big question, one very big concern other than wheat , there is zero extra seed . So I would be cautious about early seeding . In dry areas without snow , the gamble begins

I've been hearing the same thing about seed ever since fall. But lately I've had two different retailers tell me there is quite a lot of additional canola seed now allocated, they have been quite a few returns due to input costs, .
Local seed cleaning plant said they have good availability of nearly everything right now.

[TOM4CWB]

In my experience, early seeding is riskier than start of May. Atleast for our area. Less because of frost, more because it is further from the next rain.

We have had early cereals be too advanced before significant rain happens. Once that happens it doesn't matter how much rain comes it won't respond.

LEP/Sheepwheat:
June rain is needed to tiller and bring our wheat along which is why on ‘normal’ weather years better yield from traditional seeding dates for wheat… Peas early can work out better… maybe…

[Sheepwheat]

In my experience, early seeding is riskier than start of May. Atleast for our area. Less because of frost, more because it is further from the next rain.

We have had early cereals be too advanced before significant rain happens. Once that happens it doesn't matter how much rain comes it won't respond.

Interesting. Does that go for winter cereals in your area too?

[TOM4CWB]

Interesting. Does that go for winter cereals in your area too?

We gave up on them because they could not complete with spring wheat… and too often came back second growth with delayed maturity… not far off spring wheat.

[furrowtickler]

We gave up on them because they could not complete with spring wheat… and too often came back second growth with delayed maturity… not far off spring wheat.

Same here , also too much winter kill and hard to get seeded before Sept 15.
When it worked it was good .
Agree with Tom , the new HRSW varieties can actually outperform winter wheat

[WiltonRanch]

I've been hearing the same thing about seed ever since fall. But lately I've had two different retailers tell me there is quite a lot of additional canola seed now allocated, they have been quite a few returns due to input costs, .
Local seed cleaning plant said they have good availability of nearly everything right now.

With prices where they are most crops show a profit if costs are kept in line. I’d like to see crops other than canola as good of a margin so we’re not chained to that one trick pony. I don’t know about the rest of you guys but country here is half canola.

[helmsdale]

Interesting. Does that go for winter cereals in your area too?

Aside from fall rye, which is a friggin weed, I've yet to see a fall seeded crop that can handle low to non-existent snow packs with extreme cold, and chronically low fall moisture for establishment which are both common here.

June moisture is the make or break for all crops here. If its cooler, and preferably cooler and wetter you can grow a winner. If July heat and shotgun shower season shows up early like it did last year everything withers and dies.

[furrowtickler]

It’s a big area dry
Hopefully moisture starts coming regularly in the south ….