Markets betting on big crops ...

[furrowtickler]

[furrowtickler]

Saying it never froze 2 weeks ago in meaningless
Like the massive hail storms the took huge swaths of crop in SE , eastern Sask and western Alberta
Sure they were fine 2 weeks ago .....

[jazz]

Wonder what that aussie fellow would think about having frost and drought in the same year combined with a whole lot of hail and then a deluge just when the combines begin to roll.

Canada gets the trifecta of bad outcomes.

[sumdumguy]

But Jazz - French Lentils 70 cents and brown flax I heard a guy got $30. 🚀 what’s everyone hearing for prices today?

[errolanderson]

Heavy broad-based selling pressure hitting commodities (crude to gold to loonie to grains and industrials) post Labour Day . . . equity pressure as well. This has a bad smell (IMO).

[Guest]

As of today reports from the "experts" are still inconclusive as to the level of damage. Boots on the ground don't seem to think its as bad as what Bill drama queen Crabtree would have you believe. I don't think you know Bill like I do. Last I talked to him he couldn't answer simple questions on soil health. Sold his farm last year after continuous cropping wheat for nearly a decade. Tried selling Vaderstad air seeders. He's taken his ag consulting business to Africa bible thumping the big pharma drum of GMOs and crispr. That's his agenda to over state the frost damage so he can advocate/sell frost resistance tech to look good, a sock puppet. Also got his liberal (conservative here) ass kicked recently hence his retreat to Africa IMO. Back to frost, some did suffer damage and that's unfortunate but I'm still thinking 20 mil t is possible. Time will tell. Forecast 10 days out looks good which takes us past the riskier period here. Still a chance for pleasant surprise on the upside in terms of yield and quality.

[Guest]

Farmers for climate action
6000+ members
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-15/doctors-farmers-urge-government-stronger-climate-targets-glasgow/100462018

[beaverdam]

Bran frost is one thing, but if,,, when your wheat kernel dries down to 13.5-14.5% moisture, there could be a lot of bus weight loss, and quality loss. If it's real bad, there might just be a flake of a hull. Time will tell.

[Guest]

Released today from GIWA Grain Industry Association of Western Australia. Latest estimate down 700,000 t from September 3,4 the frost event. Much less than previously feared and sensationalised by media and Bill drama queen. Still a long ways off from the bin though.

[Guest]

Possible frost event tonight,tomorrow night in western Australia. Tuesday morning here now. Canola swathing started north east of Perth. Wheat and barley quite vulnerable at this stage of head fill otherwise good moisture to finish if we escape.

[furrowtickler]

Good luck
Frost can takith away faster than one could ever imagine, just like hail
Been there several times over the past 30 years of actually farming ... it’s not a great feeling or fun to deal with the fall out after .

Makes it tough to raise a family while the rest of the ag industry tends to punish the wounded.

That’s a fact

[furrowtickler]

And now reality shows up ...
https://twitter.com/LeighStrange1/status/1457519726259683330

Frost hammers yields in cereals at flowering , combines eventually show the truth ....

Add that to some big areas getting 8 in rain the past 3-4 days flooding paddocks ...

file:///var/mobile/Library/SMS/Attachments/68/08/FF357824-E64C-4EA0-8200-926513D90F3A/IMG_8742.png

The world was betting on a big harvest in Australia, never count on big yields before harvest even starts . Should be a lesson learned this past year from both the northern hemisphere and now the Southern Hemisphere.

[furrowtickler]

That’s a lot of rain

[Guest]

I was right and the crop is even better than expected

[BreadWinner]

It's not in the bin yet.