Next Year

[furrowtickler]

Hot dry summer is nothing new. The Prairies has been through this many times in the past and the World keeps bumping along. Markets seem to jump with the threat of drought but when the results come in they kind of yawn and look elsewhere in the World.
As for Chuck with a little rain the crops would be ok with the heat. Below 0 nothing grows no matter how much it snows!

Or freezes at the end of August

[AlbertaFarmer5]

True , but records that were made before climate Armageddon was even dreamed up

Yes,that area has experienced mega droughts that lasted for hundreds of years. Chuck has no clue.

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Note the declining trend in drought frequency, longevity, and severity in the era of global warming
Edit, this is for Swift Current from this site: https://climatedata.ca/case-study/drought-and-agriculture/ https://climatedata.ca/case-study/drought-and-agriculture/


Almost anyone farming today in the semi arid prairies has only known good times punctuated by short dry spells. Benign would be the best word to describe the almost ideal weather( relatively speaking) that we all know. We have no point of reference for what a return to normal would be like. Palliser probably could help us understand. The extremes of all types from early 20th century really makes one respect the pioneers who survived them, to say nothing of the extremes from prior to official records being kept.

[TOM4CWB]

Note the declining trend in drought frequency, longevity, and severity in the era of global warming
Edit, this is for Swift Current from this site: https://climatedata.ca/case-study/drought-and-agriculture/ https://climatedata.ca/case-study/drought-and-agriculture/


Almost anyone farming today in the semi arid prairies has only known good times punctuated by short dry spells. Benign would be the best word to describe the almost ideal weather( relatively speaking) that we all know. We have no point of reference for what a return to normal would be like. Palliser probably could help us understand. The extremes of all types from early 20th century really makes one respect the pioneers who survived them, to say nothing of the extremes from prior to official records being kept.

The 1960s were dry in Our part of north central Alberta… NE Alberta being so wet for 5 years is in shock (dry) this year.
Will need cool weather to draw the reserve moisture up to finish the crops if no rain… if cool it is amazing how plants can suck up subsoil water. August 2002 was when the hay from Ontario came on rail. 2002 Edm 235mm 473mm 2003.

The 30day average is bleak… usually what makes our crop.

https://www.agr.gc.ca/DW-GS/historical-historiques.jspx?jsEnabled=true

Hope this worked!


Cheers

[farming101]

Somebody mentioned Palliser? This map is a mosaic from 10-14 days ago. Hardly any cloud those days

[chuckChuck]

Note the declining trend in drought frequency, longevity, and severity in the era of global warming
Edit, this is for Swift Current from this site: https://climatedata.ca/case-study/drought-and-agriculture/ https://climatedata.ca/case-study/drought-and-agriculture/


Almost anyone farming today in the semi arid prairies has only known good times punctuated by short dry spells. Benign would be the best word to describe the almost ideal weather( relatively speaking) that we all know. We have no point of reference for what a return to normal would be like. Palliser probably could help us understand. The extremes of all types from early 20th century really makes one respect the pioneers who survived them, to say nothing of the extremes from prior to official records being kept.

This is what the paper you referenced above says about climate change and drought potential on the prairies:

"What are the Future Possible Drought Threats?

A general increasing risk of drought is expected with a warming climate for the southern Canadian prairies, despite projected increases in precipitation in some areas and seasons9. More intense and larger area droughts with increased variability are projected9,10,11,12,13. Increased drying trends are documented, especially for the Prairies, that become more dominant during the 2050s (Figures 3 and 4) and with higher emission scenarios because of higher temperatures and longer warm seasons. The severe infamous droughts of the “dirty 30s”, early 1960s, 1980s and early 2000s may pale in comparison with future droughts."

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Why do all of your catastrophic scenarios occur in the future tense? The trend so far runs completely opposite to what the computer models are claiming the future holds.

That looks like an abject failure of the projections.

I don't make my living in the future.

[chuckChuck]

Why do all of your catastrophic scenarios occur in the future tense? The trend so far runs completely opposite to what the computer models are claiming the future holds.

That looks like an abject failure of the projections.

I don't make my living in the future.

https://climatedata.ca/explore/location/?loc=HATYU&location-select-temperature=tx_max&location-select-precipitation=rx1day&location-select-other=frost_days https://climatedata.ca/explore/location/?loc=HATYU&location-select-temperature=tx_max&location-select-precipitation=rx1day&location-select-other=frost_days

Lets take a look at Leader SK just north of Swift Current.

Leader, SK

For the 1951-1980 period, the annual average temperature was 3.4 ºC; for 1981-2010 it was 4.5 ºC. Under a high emissions scenario, annual average temperatures are projected to be 6.2 ºC for the 2021-2050 period, 8.3 ºC for the 2051-2080 period and 9.8 ºC for the last 30 years of this century.

Average annual precipitation for the 1951-1980 period was 332 mm. Under a high emissions scenario, this is projected to be 9% higher for the 2021-2050 period, 12% higher for the 2051-2080 period and 13% higher for the last 30 years of this century.

[furrowtickler]

This is what the paper you referenced above says about climate change and drought potential on the prairies:

"What are the Future Possible Drought Threats?

A general increasing risk of drought is expected with a warming climate for the southern Canadian prairies, despite projected increases in precipitation in some areas and seasons9. More intense and larger area droughts with increased variability are projected9,10,11,12,13. Increased drying trends are documented, especially for the Prairies, that become more dominant during the 2050s (Figures 3 and 4) and with higher emission scenarios because of higher temperatures and longer warm seasons. The severe infamous droughts of the “dirty 30s”, early 1960s, 1980s and early 2000s may pale in comparison with future droughts."

May ... or May not
One thing is for certain , growing seasons in most areas have been shorter the past few years ... that’s undeniable, and you know it
This current hot weather still does not translate into a longer growing season , but frost dates spring and fall sure due
GDD may be up this year , actually most certainly will be , but the growing season hinges on the fall frost as the May and June frosts already set the tone early.
This hot weather has pushed crop development, in some cases actually decimated crops , but will we get an august frost again ? Hopefully that’s not an issue for the first time in several years

[chuckChuck]

For Swift Current from the paper you quoted. From 1961 the historical grey SPEI trend line looks to be slightly down for the agricultural year which indicates drier conditions.

"Several measures of drought are in use, including the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)7. The SPEI is a relatively simple index based on the water balance equation (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) which can be used to calculate drought at many time scales (e.g., one, three, six, nine and twelve months) for the historical period as well as for the future (using climate model output). Since this index includes potential evapotranspiration, the effects of projected increases in temperature in the future can also be included."

https://climatedata.ca/case-study/drought-and-agriculture/ https://climatedata.ca/case-study/drought-and-agriculture/


Bold coloured lines represent median values for the historical period (grey) and each RCP (2.6 – green; 4.5 – blue; 8.5 – red), while the correspondingly shaded areas are bounded by 10th and 90th percentile values for the historical period and each RCP.

Data Source: Tam BY, Szeto K, Bonsal B, Flato G, Cannon AJ, Rong R. (2018): CMIP5 drought projections in Canada based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. Canadian Water Resources Journal 44: 90-107