Seasonal Forecasts for upcoming growing season

**helmsdale** · Jan 21, 2021, 11:24

I look out the window and there is a *respectable* amount of moisture laying in cereal and oilseed stubble, but there are certainly plenty of brown spots on legume stubble. If moisture is lacking during the growing season, those exposed areas are definitely going to struggle to get going, let alone have enough to keep going. We went into freezeup generally dry, like alot of other areas. When soil testing, I was generally unable to get the soil probe to go any deeper than 4-6", and in some places it wouldn't go beyond 2 or 3. Reserves are tapped out here, and if we end up with a couple more chinooks through the winter and not much more in the way of additional snow, alot of that moisture on the ground is going to simply disappear.

Obviously, there is alot of time between now and July for things to change, but the trend does not appear to be our friend so far.

I'd love to lock in some bushels for fall delivery with the prices we are seeing right now:

$9.00 august/sept yellow peas
$8.50 sept-dec durum

but this area is anything but a sure crop!

**bucket** · Jan 21, 2021, 11:50

Yup seeing the same bids here....but there isn't enough moisture in the ground to germinate the crop. Period.

**helmsdale** · Jan 21, 2021, 12:14

Originally posted by bucket View Post

Yup seeing the same bids here....but there isn't enough moisture in the ground to germinate the crop. Period.

Can't you just haul a few "buckets" out of Dief? I know... sore spot...

**bucket** · Jan 21, 2021, 12:16

Originally posted by helmsdale View Post

Can't you just haul a few "buckets" out of Dief? I know... sore spot...

FFS ...why get me going....lmao.

**seldomseen** · Jan 21, 2021, 12:40

Same for us up here in a typical wet region. We do have good snow cover that will help with spring germ.
No fall rains so the ground was dried right out when the snow came. It will take summer rains to grow a decent crop this year.
If my memory is any good a warm winter is often followed by a dryer summer.

**helmsdale** · Feb 2, 2021, 19:31

Drew out with his latest prognosticator...

Holds out just enough hope to keep us from roping ourselves...

July still looking above average temp, and near to below average precip. In the Special Areas, that is generally a recipe for failure. Considering the state of soil moisture as highlighted by Les Henry in the prairies, its going to take one hell of a lot of moisture through the spring to carry any of us through July.

Here's to hoping...

**Sodbuster** · Feb 2, 2021, 22:20

Where is here for the forecast?

**helmsdale** · Feb 2, 2021, 23:17

Originally posted by Sodbuster View Post

Where is here for the forecast?

Here...

Also known as, "the asshole of the planet", or more spatially the special areas.

"God's country"

**helmsdale** · Feb 18, 2021, 10:59

February 18, 2021 NOAA seasonal outlook update.

Compared to last month, the dry blob in the western united states that extends up into the canadian prairies is getting larger and the onset seems to be getting pushed earlier.

The temperature anomaly is also spreading further north from previous month.

Personal opinion, is that these "trends" are certainly moving in the wrong direction. They also seem to be worsening rather than just holding.

Seasonal Forecasts for upcoming growing season