Seasonal Forecasts for upcoming growing season

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Helmsdale, I'm sure you follow these forecasts much closer than I do. Considering your risk of drought.
How is their track record from past years?
I followed Environment Canada's seasonal forecast for enough years to establish that they were a very reliable contrarian indicator, then gave up.

At this point, I am looking forward to an easier spring, with less snow, and less soil moisture, but that all could change in a hurry yet.

[helmsdale]

AF5, I'd say like most things, they are probably reasonably close to predicting the "larger picture." In this area, one or maybe two stray 4 mile wide thunderstorms in July can be the difference between an average and above average crop.

I'ts the trend that I try to look for though. They can predict a hot dry growing season as far out as august/september of the previous year, but seldom does the prediction made that early really mean much. From about december I start paying attention, and if they are calling for hot/dry but the trend is lessening, there's a good chance that by the time the growing season arrives, it looks nothing like what they had predicted a year out.

That said...
-the trend is not working in our favour the last three months as far as these seasonal outlooks go.
and,
-Drew is certainly hinting heavily that this upcoming growing year may not be particularly favorable. In his typical fashion though, he never outright says you'll be SOL, and figures there is a decent chance at early spring moisture.

In your's, Makar's, and Sheep's area, this could possibly be good news?

[beaverdam]

EC temp May-July

https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=s456pfe1t_cal&bc=prob https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=s456pfe1t_cal&bc=prob

EC Percp May-July

https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=s456pfe1p_cal&bc=prob https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=s456pfe1p_cal&bc=prob

[helmsdale]

New EC seasonal forecast out today.

Temperature:



Precipitation

[Old Cowzilla]

Dry years in the 80's a thunderstorm would show up a few lightning strikes and high winds for ten mins. followed by 10 raindrops . The show would be over except for one of the few haybales you were able to make would be burning behind the house yard.

[redleaf]

Dry years in the 80's a thunderstorm would show up a few lightning strikes and high winds for ten mins. followed by 10 raindrops . The show would be over except for one of the few haybales you were able to make would be burning behind the house yard.

I remember one of those little storms going directly over my yard. It came out of east and headed west, lightning bolts shooting out and making all kinds of noise. It was like one of those clouds that show up and nail the coyote in a roadrunner cartoon. Not one drop of rain. Never saw one like it before or since and likely never will

[furrowtickler]

I remember one of those little storms going directly over my yard. It came out of east and headed west, lightning bolts shooting out and making all kinds of noise. It was like one of those clouds that show up and nail the coyote in a roadrunner cartoon. Not one drop of rain. Never saw one like it before or since and likely never will

Seen a few of those in 2001 and 2002
Just would not rain regardless of any cold front .

[helmsdale]

Winter forecast didnt necessarily hold up. Perhaps the summer wont either.

[Old Cowzilla]

-29 yesterday morn -5 this morn tractors should turn over a lot better would be good if I have to push wet snow away from feed bunks a couple of times. Can't believe I said that but it's true.

[helmsdale]

New NOAA outlooks today. More of the same.

Temperature:


Precip:


The latest outlook continues to trend western North America Drier and Warmer this summer in every successive outlook of the last three months. The dry "blob" is possibly shifting somewhat further south, as Id suspect the drought conditions in the US south and west are likely going to impact future weather patterns.

See current drought map of Continental US: