Dumb question not meant to rile.

[helmsdale]

NOAA has consistently been saying that we will not see excess moisture this next growing season. And if the pacific northwest goes droughty itll want to expand NW out of there to us.

Heres NOAAs latest projections.

[helmsdale]

NOAA certainly is pushing excess moisture into the corn/soy belt, so that could be a strong negative for next years markets provided it doesnt flood out acres which if it did could then end up being a positive? But unless flooding is biblical, it seems unlikely that it would reduce stocks enough to short the market.

[workboots]

I good reference for western Canadian historical drought Information is “vulnerability and adaptation to drought”

Tree ring data is hard to refute.
5, 10, and even 25 year span of below average rainfall throughout the 1800’s

1900’s were well above average moisture for comparison.