Dumb question not meant to rile.

**Guest** · Dec 31, 2020, 18:49

its a big variance here , the NE saskatchewan swamp is always only one dump from a flood. but we were dry this year . not like the south though , biggest damage to canola here was done with just two weeks of heat and dry when it was blooming
but the southern prairies is in a real moisture deficit

**ajl** · Dec 31, 2020, 18:51

Dry talk in Jan is irrelevant. It can be on the dry side here until mid May and then turn wet for the remainder of the season like it did in 2016. Would have had a good crop that year if it would have stopped raining that fall. Northern regions need some dryness in the spring just in case you get 100 to 125 mm of rain in a week in June so it has some place to go. We always have some soil reserve around here. Last year in May the surface was getting dry in mid May and then there was 60 mm of rain starting May 21 after which flooding problems started. If you don't have real rain by mid June then dry is starting to be a real issue for cereal type crops. Hay has started to suffer if you don't see rain by mid May.

**jazz** · Dec 31, 2020, 18:55

Snow is the moisture reserve right now mallee and its building slowly. We usually get a good dump or two in march.

But the spring winds have been killer on that bit of winter moisture last few yrs.

June is our monsoon month. Most crops make or break that month.

Hardly a time to panic here yet.

**blackpowder** · Dec 31, 2020, 19:37

The type of soil you have indicates available precipitation patterns since last ice age. ie brown soil less than deep black etc.
The subsoil moisture is like a savings account. Right now its empty.
It takes a certain amount of water per bushel, the plant doesn't care.
It takes a few years of that for sloughs to disappear.
Too broad a statement I know but, no matter how much moisture, without rain in June you're ducked.

**malleefarmer** · Dec 31, 2020, 19:47

So its a bit premature?

USA similar plenty of t8me?

**jazz** · Dec 31, 2020, 20:10

Originally posted by malleefarmer View Post

So its a bit premature?

USA similar plenty of t8me?

US is a little different. Their wheat belt is ND down to KS and Oklahoma. ND SD usually get similar winters to us, but snowfall further south is more iffy. They cant rely on it as much as we can. So starting dry can be a concern.

The soy corn belt is east of the 100th meridian and their summers rains are usually pretty much guaranteed.

**malleefarmer** · Dec 31, 2020, 20:14

Originally posted by jazz View Post

US is a little different. Their wheat belt is ND down to KS and Oklahoma. ND SD usually get similar winters to us, but snowfall further south is more iffy. They cant rely on it as much as we can. So starting dry can be a concern.

The soy corn belt is east of the 100th meridian and their summers rains are usually pretty much guaranteed.

Thanks jazz.
Experts say we are in a weather markets just at moment far from it i reckon. Just treading water more political china sales russian bans argie qoutas. Waiting waiting waiting for china to cancel sales or throw a curve ball somehow that flattens the market.

**woodland** · Jan 1, 2021, 00:34

Never lost a crop in December yet. A dump of wet snow in April or May and good rain in June can erase all dryness concerns. Our grass needs moisture either in the ground or falling from the sky by mid May or the yields start sliding.

Lots of winter for snow yet and the dugouts are fairly full after the last few wet years here.

**Sheepwheat** · Jan 1, 2021, 01:05

The prairie region is too big to make generalizations. Weâ€™re sitting pretty. Excellent moisture position. A few miles makes a difference tho.

Dumb question not meant to rile.