Dumb question not meant to rile.

[Old Cowzilla]

Water table quite low here and we will be able to handle a good rain or snow event. Guys want perfect spring, corner to corner don't touch steering wheel seeding. Thats followed by fish, spray, fish,hay, fish,combine with timely 1.25 rain events. I mean I don't think I'am asking for much......

[woodland]

Water table quite low here and we will be able to handle a good rain or snow event. Guys want perfect spring, corner to corner don't touch steering wheel seeding. Thats followed by fish, spray, fish,hay, fish,combine with timely 1.25 rain events. I mean I don't think I'am asking for much......

The last few years here have been a little soggy and we’ve used tow straps and winch trucks for our “fishing” trips. A “normal” (whatever that is anymore) year would be fantastic.

We can all dream.............

[farmboy44]

Dont mean to offend you Mallee you seem to be an awful nice guy, but would you ever consider naming a thread with what the actual contents of the discussion is like all the other threads people start? Most of what you start is like a clickbait ad that you have to open to even know what is inside.

People who are interested in discussing the topic the thread pertains to are more likely to participate if the thread title at least identifies what it is about

And on the contrary, people who dont want to participate in certain topics can avoid them as well.

[helmsdale]

Seldom do I ever have "money in the bank" whether it be actual $$$, or soil moisture reserves. With the exception of 2017s crop, the previous year rarely gives any surplus moisture to carry into the next years crop.

Adoption of continuous cropping here the last 10 years also coincides with above average winter snowpacks. We have an above average snowpack this year as well, so should likely be able to get germination, the rest is up to mother nature from the middle of may till mid july. An inch the middle of may, 4-6inches in june, and if the stars align, 2 more in the beginning of july and we can grow an above average crop(likely below most areas average). If July's hot and dry, were average(considered a crop failure in most areas), and if heat comes earlier like the middle of june, you're left to pick shit with the chickens for 10 months till you can roll the dice all over again.

[helmsdale]

If you put any stock in longer term seasonal outlooks, heres the latest from ECCC:

These have been trending dryer, and warmer the closer we get, which brings them closer in alignment with NOAA.

[helmsdale]

NOAA has consistently been saying that we will not see excess moisture this next growing season. And if the pacific northwest goes droughty itll want to expand NW out of there to us.

Heres NOAAs latest projections.

[helmsdale]

NOAA certainly is pushing excess moisture into the corn/soy belt, so that could be a strong negative for next years markets provided it doesnt flood out acres which if it did could then end up being a positive? But unless flooding is biblical, it seems unlikely that it would reduce stocks enough to short the market.

[workboots]

I good reference for western Canadian historical drought Information is “vulnerability and adaptation to drought”

Tree ring data is hard to refute.
5, 10, and even 25 year span of below average rainfall throughout the 1800’s

1900’s were well above average moisture for comparison.