China ... soybeans

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Yep, I like it, nice for a change,,,

ChiComs cancel orders, and price goes up, pay more instead of the usual drop in prices with them paying less.

Looks like the traders and originators are calling their bluff. Always good when your opponents plan backfires spectularly.

[errolanderson]

Lingering Argentina port strike continues to throw gas on soybean price fire. U.S. remains only old crop store in town.

But, soybean futures may now also be at-risk of a 'bearish key reversal' on-the-charts once sellers eventually regain confidence. Suggests heightened price volatility possible heading into 2020 year end.

[farming101]

Bean Oil Jan and Mar over 40.69 today(long term resistance). March with highest volume and open interest is sitting @40.62

[errolanderson]

Bean Oil Jan and Mar over 40.69 today(long term resistance). March with highest volume and open interest is sitting @40.62

When these markets crack, soyoil may have the largest downside risk (IMO). U.S. stocks are now rising due to heavy crushing for meal export. A March soyoil put is now trading near 1.5 cents/lb on this current market strength or $750 U.S. for one 60,000 lb (railcar size) contract. Soyoil is a direct cousin to canola . . . .

Food for thought . . . .

[errolanderson]

For what it's worth . . . March canola triggered a technical 'bearish key reversal' today . . . .

[farming101]

When these markets crack, soyoil may have the largest downside risk (IMO). U.S. stocks are now rising due to heavy crushing for meal export. A March soyoil put is now trading near 1.5 cents/lb on this current market strength or $750 U.S. for one 60,000 lb (railcar size) contract. Soyoil is a direct cousin to canola . . . .

Food for thought . . . .

Some short dated puts? Interesting proposition. Tell me when the strike in Argentina will be over....

[oneoff]

It sounds like the port strike that began December 09 will continue on at least through Christmas, and was joined by associated unions for 36 hours beginning last Wednesday. 100 plus cargo ships waiting to load various commodities.

How many are soybean ships, and how much old crop is available if the companies pony up enough to satisfy the unions? Is it really enough to crash the current demand if an agreement is reached? Tuesday's attempt was not accepted.

[errolanderson]

It sounds like the port strike that began December 09 will continue on at least through Christmas, and was joined by associated unions for 36 hours beginning last Wednesday. 100 plus cargo ships waiting to load various commodities.

How many are soybean ships, and how much old crop is available if the companies pony up enough to satisfy the unions? Is it really enough to crash the current demand if an agreement is reached? Tuesday's attempt was not accepted.

A strike holding up a market doesn't have a long shelf-life . . . .

Markets (soy/corn) are a hand-shake away from a pullback (IMO). Ethanol plants stateside are shutting down temporarily due to slowing demand. Fund buying has been key to holding the beans together right now. But, U.S. soy exports have quieted with lower-than-expected weekly exports . . . .

[checking]

A strike holding up a market doesn't have a long shelf-life . . . .

Markets (soy/corn) are a hand-shake away from a pullback (IMO). Ethanol plants stateside are shutting down temporarily due to slowing demand. Fund buying has been key to holding the beans together right now. But, U.S. soy exports have quieted with lower-than-expected weekly exports . . . .

Today unions and companies were to talk over the new and improved offer. Anyone know if it was accepted on a current US $0.25 price increase on beans? Anyone know if river barge traffic for ag goods in Argentina is impeded by low water levels? Anyone know if Argentina farmers even want to sell their beans in the environment of export tariffs? They seem to be the only store in town.

Always to-morrow.