Seasonal Canola

[bucket]

Actually, I think these guys are relying on satellite imagery and that is steering them wrong. They cant possibly get a good feel for the entire crop without hundreds of in field visits every few weeks and most cant afford to have a staff like that other than USDA.

I wouldnt pay for any service like that.

Nope.... but there are farmers that offer up the info for free or worse yet pay for it through a fieldview or being direct linked with their equipment....


Now if someone was willing to pay me for information ...that would be different topic....although I doubt they could afford it...

Every week from May to september a weekly crop report comes out for free to the industry just to ram us a little harder.....last week they gave yield data....free....the industry won't even report publicly what they are doing and don't have to....its like pulling hens teeth to find out when the next train is coming and what they are buying after it...

[furrowtickler]

Most experts guessing yields have about as much a clue about crop yields as the retired school teacher hail adjusters ...... nearly zero .
A good example of how very little they know about plant growth.......
After the big hail storm hit this area the damage was very evident on most crops . I could tell within two days what damage was going to be .
Later when the three wisemen from Coop hail came out and did their assessment based on their acute knowledge based on science lol , we had a discussion. That’s where they got taught a lesson about real life agronomy . They did not like it but I was not backing down . They left here not happy going across 20 1/4’s a second time .
They still came back a bit low , but I proved my point and signed off .
Point is when the combines got going , the yield data shows exactly what we seen as damage from day one . Yields drop off Nearly exactly as the plant damage showed within days of that hail. They felt they paid too much , well they were dead wrong , they were still 10% low on average so far .
Point is not everyone is an “expert” as they claim and as many have pointed out here , realities in the combine are proving that .
Yes some areas have very good yields , but that’s the same as every year. But there are many areas where as seen by on here that prove Mother Nature has taken a lot off the yields the past two months. But that gets pushed aside by experts and the focus remains on the pockets of good yields

[burnt]

Actually, I think these guys are relying on satellite imagery and that is steering them wrong. They cant possibly get a good feel for the entire crop without hundreds of in field visits every few weeks and most cant afford to have a staff like that other than USDA.

I wouldnt pay for any service like that.

The crops in this part of the province looked PHEnominal all summer, after a slow start due to being very dry until mid-July. The first cut hay was off some because of it.

Soys were very tall, some up to my waist.

However, in mid August our soy agro guy started saying that guys who think they have a huge crop might be in for a surprise when they hit the fields at harvest - low pod set, some pods that set 2 beans instead of 3...

This is a chap that keeps tabs on hundreds of his customer's fields across a really big chunk of south-western Ontario for the company we sell IP beans to.

In general the emergence and population was the highest he had ever see - at the start of the growing season. Ours were around the 180M+ mark when fully emerged.

So next week will tell the tale as the early fields start to come off. Looks to be average, but not the bin buster that we thought we were looking at. Some fields will be exceptional, depending on who got that extra 1/2" when they needed it...

The corn, however, is absolutely astounding around here. Looks to easily be a record crop. There could be storage issues.

[jazz]

I remember seeing this article 6 weeks ago. That didnt age well. Or was it a marketing ploy to entice some pre booking. China mentioned.

Another frost in NC sask last night.

I never prebook. Thats a losing proposition imo. Could have prebooked lentils for 23 cent, they are 26c after harvest.

https://ca.reuters.com/article/idCAKCN2550JI 'Like gold': Canadian canola prices spike as shippers find back door to China

[farming101]

Seems RSN21 butts it's head against $530/tonne. If it breaks that where is the next level of resistance?

Maybe my focus should be on support? But is there any reason for the current rally to reverse?

Support at 518.20 now. Expect to rise for a while yet, perhaps at a slower rate

[TASFarms]

Most experts guessing yields have about as much a clue about crop yields as the retired school teacher hail adjusters ...... nearly zero .
A good example of how very little they know about plant growth.......
After the big hail storm hit this area the damage was very evident on most crops . I could tell within two days what damage was going to be .
Later when the three wisemen from Coop hail came out and did their assessment based on their acute knowledge based on science lol , we had a discussion. That’s where they got taught a lesson about real life agronomy . They did not like it but I was not backing down . They left here not happy going across 20 1/4’s a second time .
They still came back a bit low , but I proved my point and signed off .
Point is when the combines got going , the yield data shows exactly what we seen as damage from day one . Yields drop off Nearly exactly as the plant damage showed within days of that hail. They felt they paid too much , well they were dead wrong , they were still 10% low on average so far .
Point is not everyone is an “expert” as they claim and as many have pointed out here , realities in the combine are proving that .
Yes some areas have very good yields , but that’s the same as every year. But there are many areas where as seen by on here that prove Mother Nature has taken a lot off the yields the past two months. But that gets pushed aside by experts and the focus remains on the pockets of good yields

What never comes into consideration for hail damage. There is increased weed pressure for the next couple of years. Usually hail happens after the incrop herbicide window closes, but even if it is before the crop just doesn’t compete the same after.

[farmaholic]

Support at 518.20 now. Expect to rise for a while yet, perhaps at a slower rate

The carry between Nov and July is now only $12/t.

Hmmm...

[Oliver88]

Up another $5/tonne. Talk of record crop has been minimal recently.

[farmaholic]

Some people will enjoy both stellar crop yeilds AND real good grain prices. It happens.

Sask-ahem-farmer-ahem-3-ahem.

😉👍

[farming101]

China spot price for ****seed oil set a new high today...China ****seed oil futures inverted out to July 21 contract. No carry