Here's hoping for an economic reset soon in ag

[grassfarmer]

Haha Liberals are so predictable, just too easy.

I'm not a Liberal, but yes when it comes to spotting BS in your comments it is just too easy.

[ajl]

Ajl Sounds like shorting Rme is a sound strategy?

My favorite way of shorting is to sell covered calls when the chart has a daily RSI of over 70 but RME does not have options trading so the only way to be short is to actually sell short. Chart at current level is neutral. Stock trading around 10 which means stock has not gone anywhere the last 5 yrs.

[Crestliner]

My favorite way of shorting is to sell covered calls when the chart has a daily RSI of over 70 but RME does not have options trading so the only way to be short is to actually sell short. Chart at current level is neutral. Stock trading around 10 which means stock has not gone anywhere the last 5 yrs.

My experience in 35 years of farming and doing business has been, if it dosent make sense to you after a lot of research and analysis...it will soon manifest itself as a failure or a “reset”.

Gravity can be defied but only for a term or season. Just like in farming ...it needs to make sense at the end of the day. What “make sense” varies from one farmer to another and mostly involves what level of risk someone is willing to accept and how hard they will work or be committed. That is what makes this business so interesting. A lot of players with diverse opinions and effort.

A lot of farming decisions are based on emotion not raw analysis. We are a heavy family oriented industry with many different moving parts. Inter generational considerations to respect and then real life economic and enviromental conditions beyond our control which seem to be more out of control than ever.

For the young farmer I say “giver all you got”. If you have dads and grandpas help....treat their money like an unrelated investor...with respect. Ask and follow the seniors advice. Add 25% to what you think it will cost and subtract 25% from what you think you will make....if there is something left for you....it may work out. Have a plan B and plan C. Be prepared to get blind sided as it can and does happen.

On land have patience...you may have to wait 20 years to rent or buy what you think you should have today. Your turn will come.

If you don’t have passion for all the ups and downs of Ag....get out now...go get a salary...don’t waste your time. You have to find some joy in fixing a tire that falls off at 5:00 AM on a cold May morning.

And FFS....get off Twitter! Showing us your great crops or your lunch and reporting pictures of how wonderful your crops are, or your new highly leveraged 5th wheel....it’s immature and nobody gives a shit and you are devaluing your brand!

Social media plays a part and can help your operation and knowledge, but a hourly, daily play by play of your next move is just plain stupid.

I drove by a guys farm one time...a sign with his name said “Bushels is King”.....my feeling is that cash is King....when you make it or borrow it...use it wisely and have very sticky fingers when parting with it.

Shorting RME, CERVUS ...is a very good play. AGT as well. Tough times are coming for them all.

[Taiga]

RME is making a bit more than 2%. Another parts story but I needed a new bat pipe for a nh header, they wanted $2900 plus freight. It's a HC reel, combine world is a dealer, same piece $325.

Dealers have done the exact same things farmers have, overspent on fancy shops and expensive land thinking the good times will last forever.

Yes they are making just a little bit more than 2%. Barely.

[Flatlander9]

My experience in 35 years of farming and doing business has been, if it dosent make sense to you after a lot of research and analysis...it will soon manifest itself as a failure or a “reset”.

Gravity can be defied but only for a term or season. Just like in farming ...it needs to make sense at the end of the day. What “make sense” varies from one farmer to another and mostly involves what level of risk someone is willing to accept and how hard they will work or be committed. That is what makes this business so interesting. A lot of players with diverse opinions and effort.

A lot of farming decisions are based on emotion not raw analysis. We are a heavy family oriented industry with many different moving parts. Inter generational considerations to respect and then real life economic and enviromental conditions beyond our control which seem to be more out of control than ever.

For the young farmer I say “giver all you got”. If you have dads and grandpas help....treat their money like an unrelated investor...with respect. Ask and follow the seniors advice. Add 25% to what you think it will cost and subtract 25% from what you think you will make....if there is something left for you....it may work out. Have a plan B and plan C. Be prepared to get blind sided as it can and does happen.

On land have patience...you may have to wait 20 years to rent or buy what you think you should have today. Your turn will come.

If you don’t have passion for all the ups and downs of Ag....get out now...go get a salary...don’t waste your time. You have to find some joy in fixing a tire that falls off at 5:00 AM on a cold May morning.

And FFS....get off Twitter! Showing us your great crops or your lunch and reporting pictures of how wonderful your crops are, or your new highly leveraged 5th wheel....it’s immature and nobody gives a shit and you are devaluing your brand!

Social media plays a part and can help your operation and knowledge, but a hourly, daily play by play of your next move is just plain stupid.

I drove by a guys farm one time...a sign with his name said “Bushels is King”.....my feeling is that cash is King....when you make it or borrow it...use it wisely and have very sticky fingers when parting with it.

Shorting RME, CERVUS ...is a very good play. AGT as well. Tough times are coming for them all.

Best thing I’ve seen on here in a long long time. Well said

[bucket]

AGT is on another government drip with being involved with the Churchill rail rebuild....

[rumrocks]

The best advice I've heard comes from I believe, Winston Churchill . . . Plans are useless, but planning is invaluable.

So true.

[biglentil]

The best advice I've heard comes from I believe, Winston Churchill . . . Plans are useless, but planning is invaluable.

So true.

Made me think of a Mike Tyson quote, "Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth.".

[furrowtickler]

Made me think of a Mike Tyson quote, "Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth.".

Lol very true in many things .....


Kinda like that ... yup just gonna get hopes up then wham ... right in the kisser lol

[bucket]

Better yet get rid of the all the pricks in ag that feed off of Farmers !

You know who you are !

Research scientists that develop varieties with a best before date?

[pourfarmer]

My experience in 35 years of farming and doing business has been......

Great post 👍

[hobbyfrmr]

Better yet get rid of the all the pricks in ag that feed off of Farmers !

You know who you are !

Then you will get lower yeilds, more weeds, more disease, more dockage, less cash flow , missed payments and go downhill fast.
Everybody knows you cant grow a crop without fertilizer and spray.

[Partners]

Farm for sale !

All retired farmers are real happy people..not one has ever said they wish they would have kept on..

[AlbertaFarmer5]

My experience in 35 years of farming and doing business has been...

On land have patience...you may have to wait 20 years to rent or buy what you think you should have today. Your turn will come.

Agree with everything you wrote except this. Say the average farmers starts at 30 ( assuming, like most of us, we had to go out and make a living first to get enough capital). Then wait another 20 years for the piece of ground to come up for sale, now assume that that doesn't coincide with the euphoric top and extreme prices, or a depression when the banks won't loan money, then take a 25 year mortgage on it, and suddenly you are looking at a mortgage that won't be paid until you are 75, if a bank will even loan you money at that age.

[bucket]

Agree with everything you wrote except this. Say the average farmers starts at 30 ( assuming, like most of us, we had to go out and make a living first to get enough capital). Then wait another 20 years for the piece of ground to come up for sale, now assume that that doesn't coincide with the euphoric top and extreme prices, or a depression when the banks won't loan money, then take a 25 year mortgage on it, and suddenly you are looking at a mortgage that won't be paid until you are 75, if a bank will even loan you money at that age.

Then you just roll it to a hopeful in the next generation with a large life insurance package.