C R A S H! WHEAT has imploded.

[SASKFARMER3]

The bloom may be off the rose in the spring wheat market following Thursday's USDA report, which reduced the potential for the US spring wheat crop, but not to the level expected in pre-report estimates, says DTN's Cliff Jamieson. The Dec. contract made a move below support at $7.28 3/4, given a 30-cent move lower on Thursday and the selling failed to let up on Friday with a close that was a 27 1/4-cent move lower to $6.88 1/4 cents.

Friday's close ended below support, which marks the 50% retracement of the move from the contract's April 11 low of $5.44/bushel to the July high of $8.43/bu., calculated at $6.93 1/2/bu. While not shown, it is interesting to note that the continuous active chart mirrors the Dec. chart, with the 50% retracement of the move from the April low to July high calculated at $6.94/bu. A sustained move below these support levels could suggest a further move to the 61.8% retracement level at $6.58 1/2/bu. on the Dec. chart and $6.53/bu. on the continuous active chart.

Farmers, analysts and industry stakeholders continued to scratch their heads Friday following the Aug. 10 release of USDA's latest reports. One analyst even described the event as USDA dropping a nuclear bomb.

Wheat futures closed lower led by the sharp drop in spring wheat, which is now under US$7/bu for the first since late June. The US Spring wheat harvest is under way in the northern Plains, with custom harvesters continuing to report a wide range of yields and fewer acres. While yields are mostly down from previous years, protein levels have been favorable at 14% to 16%.

So i guess for dear old Canada that will mean cheap prices off the combine and no protein additions.

One crop had potential and now that is gone till late winter when they realize shit in Russia needs quality to make bread.

[bucket]

Yeah but no one counted the baled fields or put in the zero on the average because no farmer has unloaded a bale at an elevator....ffs already....and because of that fact it's what I call manipulation and collusion....

Many people seen the bales and no one put a zero in for the field.

Sure I can grab heads in my fields that make 8 row but they are so thin it's still a shitty crop....

[SASKFARMER3]

Yea the Crop tour in the USA was a real big joke. The not counting shitty fields is a huge joke.

The fact that combines are rolling yields are down in ND but protein is up. Really WTF its a shitty crop down their.

[farmaholic]

Its harvest time in the area MGEX grain is traded. What should we expect. ...is the drop really due to the USDA report or harvest pressure?

I never priced any during the high range of prices. As I said, even with grade and px discounts I still could have been further ahead than risking getting less later(spot or futures at the time) after a market drop.

My problem....if it will be one. It could be a while now before prices turn higher again...harvest pressure. Difference between us pushing grain onto the market and them trying to pull it in.

And I realize they are blaming the USDA report for this latest drop.

[bucket]

Harvest pressure is booked in the states ...they know it's coming....with reduced yields most have went from 30 percent booked in to deliver to 100 percent....that shortage should show up sooner than later in the states when they can't fill the next train....


In Canada the grain cos don't have to think that far ahead....they ask the railways to not deliver and they kindly oblige....therefore keeping the system full and sending the storage bill to farmers who admire their shiny new elevator equivalents.

[farmaholic]

In drought like conditions that damn wheat seems to hold up the best. I'm not saying the wheat crop is "good" in the affected area but it probably didn't take the sucker punch canola, flax and peas did, and soybeans(will if it doesn't rain much more than it has).

What kind of grinds my gears is its just a ****ing report. Harvest isn't over in the MGEX area(Canada included). Chicken counting again. Count the brood after the clutch is completely hatched not halfway through.

[farming101]

World wheat stocks capped spring wheat premiums. Also with better quality spring wheat and a lot higher protein bakers will actually need less 2017 wheat to make bread.

Latest numbers for US HRSW indicate an opportunity for Canadian wheat both in increased exports to US and internationally. But it also forecasts that the HRSW crop will be rationed at these prices.(Stocks/use actually went up 2 percent in August forecast).

Harvest lows should come earlier this year. Prices are a dollar better for next spring delivery. Cash market stabilizing as futures backed off.

Best case would be for a low in prices this week and a steady climb as harvest progresses. Maybe the retracement level of 658.5 will hold it.
Nope. Guess not

[sumdumguy]

In drought like conditions that damn wheat seems to hold up the best. I'm not saying the wheat crop is "good" in the affected area but it probably didn't take the sucker punch canola, flax and peas did, and soybeans(will if it doesn't rain much more than it has).

What kind of grinds my gears is its just a ****ing report. Harvest isn't over in the MGEX area(Canada included). Chicken counting again. Count the brood after the clutch is completely hatched not halfway through.

Computer-generated drivel! Next week they'll be correcting the report and downsizing the wheat crop. This is the way manipulators work, that's why wheat is $7 instead of $25.

[Kinger]

Prices are $1 to $2 per bushel better than it looked last year at this time.

Pull up a historical chart on the Dec contract should show you whats happening.

Curious for the guys who don't like USDA reports and call them made up. What would you rather have the markets trade? Statscan? Everyone with a fm radio station? The way the wind blows?

[Oliver88]

The good prices are gone for us prairie farmers until spring IMO when prices improve.

[bucket]

Kinger

You have to call baled fields of spring wheat zero and put it in the equation.

Zero plus 36 divided by 2 is not 36 bpa average. ....it's 18...

Use the math you want zero plus 46 plus 35 .....the average isn't 40....it's 27...

In Canada there are a lot of thin fields.....lots of nice heads but the stand isnt there.....

I think the shortage of good spring wheat will show up sooner than later....west coast prices haven't said there is an oversupply or the exporters are giving it away yet.

[Oliver88]

Minne wheat is down another 29 cents!!

She's over for selling good quality wheat.....if it hasn't been previously contracted lock the bins.

[Kinger]

I totally agree with you bucket those number definitely need to be looked at harder.

But when the USDA releases a report that's bearish the market will either believe or not believe it then react accordingly. Sometimes the other way.

In my opinion the recent losses in Minnie wheat are due to harvest pressure more so than the last report. Which based on some of the comments some people don't believe that's a thing. Don't forget these are futures markets it's based on what the price will be in the future. Hence after harvest when there is a more wheat in the market price tends to go down. Even if the crop is 50% smaller that crop is now 100% open to the market and can enter the supply chain at any given moment. Thus the decrease in prices.

[Guest]

Prices are $1 to $2 per bushel better than it looked last year at this time.

Pull up a historical chart on the Dec contract should show you whats happening.

Curious for the guys who don't like USDA reports and call them made up. What would you rather have the markets trade? Statscan? Everyone with a fm radio station? The way the wind blows?

oh , how about what's really out there for crop ?? anyone with half a f&$king brain knows that last usda report is a joke . they don't even try to hide it anymore . do you believe those wheat numbers ?????????.
but yes you are right , it is just harvest happy hour , no more , no less

[farming101]

Interesting price action in MWZ today. Not textbook but could be viewed as a bullish signal with a little help from tomorrow's trading.

Look for a green opening tomorrow with a close of 701.125 or better for more confidence.
Another down day cratering below today's low would cancel the signal.

I don't like talking up markets that are going down hard but it's interesting, that's all