Plate Tectonics---Carbon Cycle---- and Climate Change--from UCLA Library

[blackpowder]

What increased Saskpower rates to $.25 ?

[chuckChuck]

It may be prudent to use a small scale test facility at Estevan first. But since they already have lots of real life results from other provinces and if they jive well with what the pvwatt solar calculator says then do they need to test already proven results?

Perhaps they also need to test a utility scale 10Mw system for cost and efficiency. Again Sask power is only putting a small amount of investment into solar pv. Their bigger fish is wind with which they are planning 1600Mw by 2030.

Solar and wind are not going to replace coal. Natural gas will likely be the go to fuel. We will still need fossil fuels for the forseeable future.

[chuckChuck]

I looked at my Saskpower bills for the last 10 years and electricity has increased about 3% per year. So in 30 years at the same rate of increase that would add up to about 25 cents per kwh, if I did my math correctly? LOL Oneoff can check my math. Currently farms are paying about 11.8 cents kwh

[oneoff]

May be hard to believe but I could find nothing really agregious in last few posts. Oh sure a lot relies on some computer generated forecast and portions of those projections are out by way more than they coulkd be if those computers were set to deliver what has been found to be much closer to the actual real life datathat is coming available Example:


In my report from Brandon a wee ago I stated the following was said by solar presnters/salesmen
Quote
They did omit to ever mention the cost of connection to the grid being depended to supply your power particularly in winter months; also mentioned that NASA and other data is pretty accurate on a yearly basis but is "a fair bit different on higher side of max production in summer type mounts; but offset by more disappointing output in winter. Solar panel tilt 45 degrees in their installations. Roof mounts preferred in older already installed installations; but opposite in installations now awaiting final electrical inspection.
Unquote

Time to maybe put that real data in a place to overwrite the "fake" news data.

Similarly if you look at winter months dual tracking systems in Ontario (from powerhouse solar sites) you see year after year consistent dismal Kwh output such that literally a days solar PV generation is of the order of even a couple or thre Kwh for an entire day.

Only thing I'm saying is that solar is obviously not going to be depended on in those winter months by either system owners nor the electrical grid. That is exactly what was said at Brando in slightly different words. The summer months do however exceed the computer generated figure by close to an offsetting amount; so whilst the yearly average is reasonable; most of the months are out by easily a factor of more times

So when we get more actual data from real life operating and non operating systems (offline then we'd be wise to wean away from three digit precision that is plus or minus a few hatchet widths from reality.

Only other comment is that the 25 cent per Kwh projected power rate in the future may be a way low; instead of the sticker shock. Remember 5.5 billion or more current utiity debt...need for a billion more every year in future; probably a phase out of coal quicker than has yet been announced (eg. why doesn't some news media confirm or deny that BOUNDARY DAM UNITS 4 AND 5 are not going to be retrofitted and that sounds like 2019 deadline means their being taken offline with coal forever. And Poplar River , Coronach and Shand obviously having to follow thereafter.


That what the Federal Law says.

And lastly iit needs to be again mentioned about the Globe and Mail article submitted elsewhere that show how "liars figure and figures lie"

From memory; about a week ago the article said nuclear energy accounted for 38% of installed electrical generating capacity in Ontario; but contributed some 68% of actual electricity generated.
Now I like to see anything capable of delivering 3/4 more than it was designed for; and still run like a clock. In same article (only a week ago as mentioned) solar PV was less than 1% of Ontario's generating output.


Why do we pay much attention to technology that will contribute zero Kwh's of energy for all the next third of a day; and you know that zero output started more than 6 hours ago. Look at the power house solar.ca data for any of the solar PV setups and also show they all show the same trends

ie. enough power from Powerhouse one to run a 100 watts light for 3 of the seven sunlight hours today and peaof 500 watts for three other hours and only one hour that wouldn't even begin to start a houshold refrigerator motor.

Long live our standby's. The rest is pie in the sky painted green bullshit.
Llast comment is that a 10 MMW panel (s) is rated in DC current. That way it looks better at solar panel level to not have to account for dc to Ac conversion that obviously has to be done for a grid connection. Then there's transformation losses and just taking PVwatts defaults might not be reflective of Sask in actual real life. And whilst distributing to a dense population may apply in most cases to Ontario; maybe it should be further adjusted here at home and lastly just a note that distribution losses are very important in determining power line losses. I'm out of touch with what the interprovincial grid lines currently run at for voltage; but other parts of the world are talking 700 plus KV lines and the Manitoba-Sask interprovincial grid of 45 plus years was I believe a 64 Kv line. No Upgrade I ever saw; and the difference between 10 time the operating voltage means a hundred times the resistive losses especially for any appreciable distance.


I've read that any substation at all costs a minimum of a million bucks; and trust me its a month or two process to upgrade a two or three sets of poles on a live two pole transmission line

No proof reading yet

[chuckChuck]

The page below looks at several companies and storage products. That will be the next important step.

20 energy storage disruptors

http://www.pv-tech.org/features/20-energy-storage-disruptors

[chuckChuck]

Energy Storage Requirements
for Achieving 50% Solar
Photovoltaic Energy Penetration
in California
Paul Denholm and
Robert Margolis
National Renewable Energy Laboratory

http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/66595.pdf

[oneoff]

For most purposes; we''ll never get a better storage system than what we already have.; and unfortunately that isn't at all obvious to those who will expect both it staying free to them with preferred access and their subsidized miniscule input is used to design a new grid around a small totally "unreliable" solar generating capacity.

Of course its the existing electrical grid for most electrical customers/power producers.

[chuckChuck]

Currently there are limitations to what solar and wind can provide. But if solar electricity can be generated for 2-3 cents per kwh which is what some are saying is occurring in some countries already, then that will drive a lot of investment and research into storage and smart grid applications to use this abundant and fuel less electricity.

It is quite remarkable that Germany produces up to 40Mw of solar at peak periods.

We have grown up with relatively cheap finite fossil energy. It is difficult to see how this will change. But change is already happening and predicting the future and what technologies will succeed and fail or become obsolete is a mugs game.

I am not sure what will happen. But I am willing to bet solar pv will certainly be part of the future.

Our parents were still using horses and steam power to farm a few decades ago. Did any of them correctly predict the current technology that is used to farm and live our lives? No!

[furrowtickler]

A couple good points chuck, but you also bring up the fact many of us are saying .
When , if this new energy tech becomes affordable and readily available to run our farms basic power needs - then implement a carbon tax . Until then it's a money grab wealth transfer that will do nothing to help the environment - at all.
Extra tax on alcohol and tobacco does curtail consumption. But a tax on fossil fuels just add an added expense that will show up in all inputs and deplete our net returns . The cost of T4 emissions has already driven up the machinery cost tremendously.
They are putting the cart way way before the horse with this carbon tax.

[Hamloc]

Chuck2, in Alberta a farmer can get 25% of his cost of installing a grid tie solar system payed for by government, up to .60 cent an installed watt if it is professionally installed and an energy audit is done. Also you are limited to net zero, so can only build a big enough system to produce what you use in a year. In my case if I remember right I use 18000 kWh per year. Requiring a roughly 12000 watt system. My house faces east and is surrounded by tree. Requiring a ground mount system which increases cost of installation by about 60% but improves performance by 7-14%. I will estimate 3.25 a watt. So 40 grand minus 7200 subsidy so 32800. Our Premier has set the price of electricity until 2021 at 6.8 cents a kilowatt. I signed a new contract with Enmax this am for 6.79 cents a kWh for 5 years today. My yearly electricity cost with all costs in is 3750 dollars. This will save me about 1230 dollars a year for a 32800 dollar investment. In Alberta your 2-3 cents cost of generation is a total fantasy. Even with the subsidy a 25 year payback. Your 3% increase per year for power doesn't apply in Alberta. Also your inverter only lasts 10-15 years then must be replaced. Getting very sick of your inability to face reality.

[oneoff]

Having said everything that could be said; presenting the plluses and minuses and most of the consequences that might evolve; it is time to admit that some adhere to only what they know they knew.

I'm the first to admit that if somebody gives you a brand new car (subsidy gift etc) and a gas card with no expiry date and somebody else's address (courtesy the sun and what government will allow you use it for) and nothing ever wears out; has an accident and you don't get caught (or need a medical exam, driver's licence and insurance, new tires just to name a few)....then you can correctly tell the world it was all free and just like 2-3 cent/kwh solar electricity... you'd be saying that if anybody would follow your footsteps ....there need be no cost to transportation

But don't ever admit that its an oversimplification...maybe misinformation and could even say a deliberate deception on those who do not care or know better.


It just that someday you might appreciate that you got caught in the same net, all along; depending on fossil fuels for your operation...but was on the wrong side supporting those want it phased out now.

The facts will be in by 2019 for Sask Power and coal fired generation that both you and everyone else depend on in Sask for somewhat "affordable, dependable" electrical supplies. Don't use historical 3% cot increases The new norm is to ask twice yearly; get cut back a couple percent by rate review at about 8.5% and apply for 5% every 6 months. That and more is needed when things don't go as expected and luck isn't always a one way street.
Enjoy what you're touting...but it means nothing if you won't buy in


You confident in the next few years...or just bluffing???.

[chuckChuck]

Oil industry prepares for the end of fossil fuel age

Scott Barlow

The Globe and Mail

Published Thursday, Jan. 26, 2017 8:57AM EST

Last updated Thursday, Jan. 26, 2017 8:57AM EST

A roundup of what The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow is reading this morning on the Web

British Petroleum’s chief economist Spencer Dale believes that the longer-term future for the oil industry is less a matter of when we run out, and more a case of how much will be left in the ground after being replaced by alternative power,

“'I think it is increasingly likely that there will be technically recoverable oil reserves which will never be extracted and if I was the owner of one of those companies which owned that oil I would have every incentive to make sure it wasn’t mine [left in the ground].”' Pricing pressure is likely to come from the supply side, because of strong growth in US shale oil, and the demand side as the rise of renewable energy, including electric vehicles, gradually slows growth in oil consumption.”

“BP warns of price pressures from long-term oil glut” – Financial Times
“Oil rises on weaker dollar, U.S. supply caps gains” – Reuters

[chuckChuck]

Whether I personally invest in any technology is irrelevant as we are all going to invest in wind, solar, and natural gas conversions through Saskpower.

If you don't think it is a good investment, make your case to your local MLA, Saskpower or the Premier.

By the way I have never advocated phasing out fossil fuels before we have affordable, better alternatives.

What is your response when the chief economist at British Petroleum is talking about the phase out of oil and fossil fuels because of renewables?

[chuckChuck]

Hamloc the situation in Alberta is different for Solar and your existing rates are much lower at 6.79 cents per kwh. In Saskatchewan with 11.8 cents per kwh the solar pv grid tie program will save you money in the long term. With an average 3% per year increases in price, by year 30 electricity could be 25 cents per kwh compared to the 10 cents you locked in with a current solar pv system.

Whether this is a good investment is up to individuals to decide.