Wheat Prices...

[farmaholic]

YAWN......

[SCS]

Would the CWB help!

[farmaholic]

I'm not going there....

[errolanderson]

This is a global situation where global buyers have adequate supplies and no major disturbance in production. From Canada to Argentina to Australia and the Black Sea, we are in the same boat.

The difference is currency. Argentina peso recently devalued to Black market values have wheat and corn traders looking over their shoulder.

CDN basis levels have weakened of late as a result of this intense global competition. The key to wheat recovery is a drop in global stocks, which isn't happening and/or a breakdown in the U.S. dollar. IMO, global wheat prices may not have bottomed yet. CDN bids have been supported by the fallout in the CDN dollar ramping our bids well above the U.S.(via basis premium).

Personally believe the U.S. Dollar has already topped out. If the dollar breaks early in 2016, short covering will erupt in Chicago. But CDN basis levels may weaken as well. This suggests the cash market may remain reasonably flat.

Strategy to consider is sell the cash and buy the paper. A rally would be led by the futures, not the cash market (IMO).

[farmaholic]

Errol, the best I've seen lately was about $6.82 for my grade and Px HRSW out to July, its about 20 cents off that right now.

[farming101]

Canadian wheat exports are more than 9 percent higher than the US exports since June 1.
Low dollar keeping things moving.

[seabass]

U must have damn good grade and protein Farma.

[Partners]

Prices are slowly improving..We got $6.65 for Feb..#1-13.5 pro..

[errolanderson]

U.S. wheat export pace is now the slowest since 1970. That's pathetic.

The U.S. cannot withstand their high dollar despite all drum-rolling from the U.S. Fed talking-up another 3 to 4 rate hikes next year.

The U.S. economy is about to step into a mud-hole in 2016 (IMO). Even Trump is warning of this. They need a GDP of 3% just to service their debt, let alone pay anything down. 3rd quarter GDP released this morning is 2%.

This realization will let some steam out of the U.S. dollar sometime in early 2016. Outside weather issues, this is when wheat futures rally on shortcovering(IMO).

[farmaholic]

seabass, #1, 14.5-15px delivered to a terminal on CP mainline that seems to be getting cars quite regularly. I have to check wheat prices in Alberta(just for curiosity) where freight should be better therefore better basis.

Thank you Errol for contributing to the topic.