Slow down in AG and Oil! Ouch!

[hobbyfrmr]

Im kind of half and half on SF3 opinion. I see what you say, kind of agree, i dont care about machinery, they make it everyday. There looks to be a soump in grain prices. The farms here, lots of cash from the last few years, doing everything to grow the big crop, harvesting it and succeeding. Definitely buying and renting more. As they buy (like anyone) it will get paid off and they will have collected a large sum of physical farmland then retire like regular folks. They are the guys willing to say "yes", while others are saying "geez im not so sure right now."
They see something other farmers are missing.

[ajl]

The boom of the last few years was a phony one created by loose monetary policy and it has come back to reality. There will not be a mass exodus of young farmers this time as without the oil patch there is nothing to do in town that pays. The patch and government is what paid in town. Other jobs are for the most part fairly low pay. Farming does not look that bad in comparison. Hopefully the marijuana industry replaces the oil patch in Canada as an engine of growth.

[fjlip]

All the "young" guys with no jobs now might want to farm! They will bid up the land to get a LARGER profitable base. And they can stay home.

[farmaholic]

Define young...

[Braveheart]

I like different talk rather than doom and gloom. If you like doing what you do you find the way to make it work.

You think farm business can be challenging? Try running a restaurant. Buy a hardware store, shoe store or clothing store and see what challenges you have. Start a trucking company and see how much fun it is with regulations, labour and equipment.

Business is tough. If it was easy everybody would do it.

[SASKFARMER3]

Brave just saying that we all come to a realization that all industry and experts ever told us about growing more for better times was total Bull Shit!
Then it's easy to farm F$&k them if they can't take a joke!
Land wind increase in value in the next few years and rent won't go higher and it's real easy to see why some want to expand.
When you know growing a crop on so many acres can't pay for everything it's easy drop land and size or ramp it up and hope for the best!
Simply why work harder to just break even!
Aren't you just digging a bigger hole!
When it started to get dry last spring wow were some scared in here!
It was just a little dry! If we go back to normal WTF will happen!
Trudeau won't help you out.
But maybe it's when we as farmers realize the only ones who keep getting further ahead isn't the farmer but the input suppliers and equipment suppliers!
We will all get on the same page!
I'll be 86 if the next boom takes as long as the last one to come again.
Kind of makes you wonder why we do this.
Have a great day silver is up from last week wow easy money but grain is down!
Yea the bottom is here!
Ha ha ha ha

[farmaholic]

FaintofHeart.... but is kind of like no other. I can't price my product into profitability after the fact (has nothing to do with prepricing). Can't arbitrarily pass on higher production costs. When I go to a restaurant to eat I see what its going to cost me, the restaurateur has his prices on the menu, he sets the price, pay or go hungry. Services, pay the price or you dont get them..... I'm not saying other business doesn't have their challenges. Lots of failed ventures....

[Hopalong]

Had cattle grain operation for fifty years, switched to straight grain a few years ago, expanded grain.
Mistake was not to do it fifty years ago.
Theory was cattle made better use of resources and reduced production and market risk.
In practice, found that each enterprise took away from other more than it contributed.
Especially disappointed with political action from USA when that market would have meant more profitability to us.
Also with perhaps well intentioned AgriStability and other govt support programs that penalized diversification.
See future as more industrialized and larger sized operations using more sophisticated and specialized management.

[Braveheart]

Farmaholic, can't price into profitability but has nothing to do with pre pricing? There might be an issue there.

You think restaurant pricing is a slam dunk? In our town if a coffee shop puts the price of coffee up $.10 /cup the seniors revolt and take their business elsewhere or stay home.

Service businesses still have to sell their services and products. Their price has to be competitive.

We have choices that other businesses don't have. We can change what we have to sell. We can decide how much to risk on production. We have insurance and other supports that most businesses don't have and we don't have to pay the full cost on those supports.

[Braveheart]

SF3, there used to be an ag boom every 34 years. I understand your points above, I just look at things differently.

First, I never put stock in what the "experts" say. I wouldn't still be farming if I had and certainly wouldn't base future plans on their ideas.

In terms of input suppliers and equipment dealers, we use less per acre than most and deal hard for good used machinery. While we do consider them partners in what we do, we're not the farm that gets Jets tickets and other freebe shit because we don't hand over the blank cheque.

Anyone that thought the boom was here to stay is too naive to be in farming for long. High prices make low prices and vice versa and always will. We have to be structured for that.