Slow down in AG and Oil! Ouch!

[farmaholic]

I knew a marksman like you would take a shot at the prepricing comment. Never pass up an easy target unless the harder shot is a bigger trophy, .lol.

On a per acre basis, prepricing doesnt ensure profitability when "production" doesnt allow for it!!!
Can't sell something you don't have.

[agstar77]

The big lie, increase efficiency and productivity, you will be rewarded. Nothing could be further from the truth. All this has done has drive down prices on a real basis and raised expenditures on inputs.

[Braveheart]

Agstar, increased efficiency is the real truth. If you overlay long term commodity price charts on cost of production charts you see the trend is that commodity prices are always gravitating to cost of production. It just evolved that farmers would stay in business, yet always hoping for the bonanza crop and price, if their costs were covered.

The trick to "making it" is to be the producer with lower costs than the average.

[Guest]

well sf3 , our farm is in a much better place than it was before the boom, bet yours is also . I actually enjoy it more now than I used too . you were in Phoenix last week , I was at the beach , that's what I like about farming . go hard for a while then relax and unwind for a while . I kinda think like brave , we don't try to keep dealerships in business , buy some new , not a lot .have a real good relationship with all of them . we don't do it unless it makes sense for our farm and we don't pay the big land rent either , someone else can do that . but you are right , there is a whole lot of hurt comin real soon and for some that is the only way they can learn . just curious if you are really fed up , why not dump rented land , scale back and try that for a while ?

[farmaholic]

And it is a margin business.

I always thought that if I can get my inputs marginally cheaper than average prices and grow a marginally better crop than average and can price my production marginally better than average I should be ok.

[farmaholic]

Down sizing can be tough when there's too many fingers in the pie!!! Everyone involved needs to make a living...(in the operation, not the dealers and suppliers)

[ajl]

Brave does have a point. There is still more opportunity in Ag than in town right now. I did books for a combination restaurant and gas bar as a side job and it was not profitable either. So the business was sold and no more side job. The owner did well on the real estate transaction. There is a betting pool as to how long the new owner will last until he runs out of cash.

[LEP]

I have owned non farm businesses and if you think it is any easier than farming you are dreaming in technicolor.

There is no worse feeling than to open up shop and no one shows up. Kind of like having bin butts worth of grain, and no bids, but still have payroll in a week.

I always say to those that think it is easy "there is plenty of room on the gravy train, hop on"

That said farming is definitely not an easy occupation either. But if you don't run it like a business and with complete passion you better get out.

Everything that I do in a day, I try to do it as economically as possible and to the best of my ability. In order to compete I try to do a 100 things just a little bit better than last year.

I compete with myself not the neighbor.

[SASKFARMER3]

My rented is reasonable for rent I can live with that also 5 year deals. But seems as one gets older you either start to wise up or you want to protect what you have!
Never been to a Deere factory and I have owned a few new pieces of equip. I deal hard but that's the way I am.
Phoenix was a clean up and scout new areas! Property should be sold by weeks end! Return with dollar very good. That's why will rent for the next few. I have other options for holidays.
Now funny the comment on real estate and the restaurant. He did well in the sale. Real estate bought at right time is amazing!
Now all I am saying is the boom is done if I would have no one to take over last spring would have been my last crop. Canola end to end and quit! But unfortunately I have sons who like the life but still have to complete school and university or trade for a few years!
Oil is going to be in the tank and God help us if Alberta is the blue print of what Truedeu has in store for the rest of us!
Hawaii permanently looks better and can still farm their and supply Trudeau with real nice product!
Ha ha ha.

[cottonpicken]

I think the global economy is now out of runway and the carnage is about to go off the map in the next year.

In the seventies and then a few years back they basically moved the decimal point and I think they are about to do it again not that we will be better off.

No interest rate in the market place i cant get over the fact there is no sence of panic.