20 Bucks is Here!

[cottonpicken]

http://www.investors.com/editorial/IBDArticles.asp?artsec=30&issue=20080208

Article says that synthetic trading through options puts the spring wheat value between 20 and 21 dollars!

[parsley]

You did your homework carefully. You pieced together the information. You envisioned a sexy result. You put yourself on the line and made your prediction. Stuck to it. Took awhile, though, until you saw it realized.

Few do. Enjoy it.

Some experience that gut feeling, but in the end, they really have no balls at all.

Be quietly smug.

Parsley

[parsley]

Cotton,

You did your homework carefully. You pieced together the information. You envisioned a sexy result. You put yourself on the line and made your prediction. Stuck to it. Took awhile, though, until you saw it realized.

Few do. Enjoy it.

Some experience that gut feeling, but in the end, they really have no balls at all.

Be quietly smug.

Parsley

[parsley]

Pars, we all did our homework some just don't brag as much!!

[parsley]

I think I told you once before, snappy, good for you for learning that self-discipline early.

cott is only 33, around your age, but we all learn at different rates.

Better than I, who cannot plead youth, because there are some things I never learned.

Parsley

[cottonpicken]

This wasnt meant to be a bragging post.


This is about a very weird situation in the market.I can tell you that traders that know nothing about wheat or farming are talking about the wheat chart blow off.The shear number of limit up days are baffling EVERYONE.

To be fair i never beleived it was going to happen this fast.

All sorts of scenarios are now plausible.Most are not good.

[TOM4CWB]

Snappy,

How true it is!

Pride comes before the _ _ _ _ !

OUCH!

[TOM4CWB]

C.P.

Now comes the 20 M $ Question... what do we do now?

Buy Put options?

Sell Call options?

Wheat, Canola, Black Oil, Bean oil, CDN $!

Now exicution is key!

Is doing nothing... in a once in a life time situation.... an option?

Or is this a shift?

[TOM4CWB]

I actually agree with you CP. We are in a very weird situation. The funny part is most producers don't even understand the importance of yesterdays news.

I was at a meeting last night conversing with other producers, I was just buzzing yesterday, and when I brought the topic up about the wheat, not one of them had heard. The best answer I got was "the pro better go up next month". I agree this is a scary situation.

Tom, I know you addressed CP on the Wheat. My personal take is that wheat is in "blowoff stage". I think this bull will end once those who were caught short, can recapture what they are short. Once those people are filled.... who knows what could happen.

Me personally, I will stay out of Wheat for now, possibly looking at puts or selling the futures at later date. Right now my focus is on Beans, Oats, and Corn. I see the same problem occuring in Corn this Summer, if export sales aren't kept in check. Corn, and Beans have a long way to go in my opinion. And that's not even figuring acre fights just around the corner.

Just my 2 cents.

[cottonpicken]

http://blogs.reuters.com/commodity-corner/2008/02/08/spring-wheat-is-canada-squeezing-bread/

Interview with curt desulik,wheat boards risk management guy on the spring wheat thing.