Utterly fascinating that Roberta would say Curt wouldn't comment on commercially sensitive details about the CWB's position....but then he did exactly that in the answers to her questions.
"We are very confident that we will not be participating in the delivery process for the March futures in Minneapolis"
"We're comfortable with our share of the open interest."
"It’s influenced by a lot of things and I can’t see that our position is a driving factor behind that."
"As a seller, we’d prefer obviously for the market to get to its trading level faster."
That's about as close as you can come to coming right out and saying publicly "We're short March futures" - without actually saying it.
Now, they could be short against unpriced sales - to be liquidated through exchange of futures. If so, they aren't really "caught" short. They would liquidate quite easily as they price sales.
Even so, if he worked for me, making those comments would be a CLM (career limiting move).
Since Jan 25, a total of 6,328 contracts have been exchanged for cash = 31,640,000 bushels (861,093 tonnes).
In the same time period the total open interest has dropped 10,798 contracts = 53,990,000 bushels (1,469,356 tonnes.)
It certainly looks like someone is in trouble, but under the circumstances, it may not take much of a position to drive the market like this.
Anyone remember 1984 June canola? Peaked at $722/t.
Carryout that year was 126,000 tonnes.
Once the shorts were covered.....poof.
"We are very confident that we will not be participating in the delivery process for the March futures in Minneapolis"
"We're comfortable with our share of the open interest."
"It’s influenced by a lot of things and I can’t see that our position is a driving factor behind that."
"As a seller, we’d prefer obviously for the market to get to its trading level faster."
That's about as close as you can come to coming right out and saying publicly "We're short March futures" - without actually saying it.
Now, they could be short against unpriced sales - to be liquidated through exchange of futures. If so, they aren't really "caught" short. They would liquidate quite easily as they price sales.
Even so, if he worked for me, making those comments would be a CLM (career limiting move).
Since Jan 25, a total of 6,328 contracts have been exchanged for cash = 31,640,000 bushels (861,093 tonnes).
In the same time period the total open interest has dropped 10,798 contracts = 53,990,000 bushels (1,469,356 tonnes.)
It certainly looks like someone is in trouble, but under the circumstances, it may not take much of a position to drive the market like this.
Anyone remember 1984 June canola? Peaked at $722/t.
Carryout that year was 126,000 tonnes.
Once the shorts were covered.....poof.
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