Market Accordingly....

[farmaholic]

<a href="http://photobucket.com/" target="_blank"><img src="http://i1166.photobucket.com/albums/q605/yip2/nl_gs_ac_s_e.gif" border="0" alt=" photo nl_gs_ac_s_e.gif"/></a>

This isn't pretty, I've explained our precipitation amounts on our farm. Getting 1.91 inches, or so, IN SMALL DOSES over about 8 weeks still leaves us with a net drying effect. There were days when the humidity was below 20%. And we have it better than some other areas.

This thread wasn't started to create pissing matches between Producers or areas. I'm sure everyone knows the extent of their own conditions.

I am still hopeful and its not too late here...

[farmaholic]

Percent of Normal...

<a href="http://photobucket.com/" target="_blank"><img src="http://i1166.photobucket.com/albums/q605/yip2/pr_gs_av_s_e.gif" border="0" alt=" photo pr_gs_av_s_e.gif"/></a>

[farmaholic]

Compared to Historical....

<a href="http://photobucket.com/" target="_blank"><img src="http://i1166.photobucket.com/albums/q605/yip2/pr_gs_pe_s_e.gif" border="0" alt=" photo pr_gs_pe_s_e.gif"/></a>

[hobbyfrmr]

Looking at the compared to historical map. It looks like the brown rating reached in and gently scooped North Battleford into it parched embrace.
Regina farms are celebrating the brown after 8 years of disastrous wet.
One system rolls through and it can can put everyone back into the lime green.
I do think plants are setting roots instead of suffocating in the mud. The province could use a good drink.

[bucket]

June 15th and no rain by then and this crop is ****ed.

Rooted or not.

[sumdumguy]

Cereals need to tiller to produce multiple heads. The plant requires moisture around the root node to send out tillers. Sad truth is no rain - no grain.

[farmaholic]

We haven't had enough rain in one shot to pack or firm up the drill ridges in the fields.

[charliep]

Ii would look to 2012 for guidance as a year when mother nature dealt yields a major blow across western Canada. 2012 - aster yellow other issues but the end result was a lower yielding crop. Canola futures put in their highs in the summer and then lower values in the fall followed by higher values in the winter but didn't take out the summer highs. CBT soy oil was 50 cents per pound. CBT soy meal was $500/tonne. The loonie was equal the US green back.

[charliep]

Not ready as some to right the crop off yet as some but have to deal with reality. So if a dry/lower yielding scenario is in the works, which crops will benefit most from this outlook? Which crops least?
Most potential yield loss? Strongest demand factor?

[SASKFARMER3]

And grain companies will screw us again ! Offer a low at harvest due to BS reporting about yields then as bills are paid and grain inventory drops they have to start paying to get the grain out!
No mention in any world news how F$&king Dry it is in western canada every thing is fine! Nothing to see here move along!

[farmaholic]

What are the canola bids now at your local terminal for fall delivery? For in the new year?

Maybe take a DDC and forget about the options if the option is going to cost $22/t anyway. But no upside, but no downside either.

[GOODRUM]

What didn't everyone contract a percentage at above cost of production to guarantee movement and cash flow? Pretty hard to figure if the 10bus/acr you have priced is 25% or 75% of this years production.
Pretty easy for the expert marketers to look smart when the yield is close to planned, all the planning in the world won't turn a profit if the yield isn't there.
I don't like to see any producers suffer but I do enjoy seeing the guys in ties who have been skimming off us shown that they don't don't know as much as they fees were based on.

[freewheat]

Pasture and hay needs rain far more than crops here. Crops are I assume, much later than most areas as usual, so there is quite a bit of time before they start really using moisture. Earliest cereals are maybe 4 leaf. Earliest canola is two leaf. Lots of stuff just emerging now. So with all the moisture down below the seed, there is time, HERE at least.

It is concerning though that it simply seems it can not rain. We do not match the map, in that we would be more like less than 40% of average precip, in an area that the map says is 65 to 80%.

If this dryness is as widespread, and as true a the maps say, it could be one of those years to remember for the grandkids, both in terms of prices, and in terms of yields not to brag about.

[freewheat]

Forgot to say, I had plans to seed alfalfa on a 40 acre chunk for our sheep. But I may seed some oats there instead, because the hay looks so poor, and we need to get feed of some kind...

[charliep]

So I will ask the question again.

So if a dry/lower yielding scenario is in the works, which crops will benefit most from this outlook? Which crops least?
Most potential yield loss? Strongest demand factor?

Crops that will benefit the most - Crops where the majority is grown for the domestic market (feed grains) or where western Canada makes up a major part of world trade/has seen strong exports (pulses, durum, maybe flax).

Somewhat more neutral with bigger swings - crops that are more a blend of domestic and export. Canola and maybe malt barley. Eventually importers will move their business to where they can secure want they want at a lower cost.

Crops that will have the biggest struggle - Wheat. Truly a world crop with Canada/north America along for the ride. Better quality in drought year (maybe) will help.