Market Accordingly....

[farmaholic]

What are the canola bids now at your local terminal for fall delivery? For in the new year?

Maybe take a DDC and forget about the options if the option is going to cost $22/t anyway. But no upside, but no downside either.

[GOODRUM]

What didn't everyone contract a percentage at above cost of production to guarantee movement and cash flow? Pretty hard to figure if the 10bus/acr you have priced is 25% or 75% of this years production.
Pretty easy for the expert marketers to look smart when the yield is close to planned, all the planning in the world won't turn a profit if the yield isn't there.
I don't like to see any producers suffer but I do enjoy seeing the guys in ties who have been skimming off us shown that they don't don't know as much as they fees were based on.

[freewheat]

Pasture and hay needs rain far more than crops here. Crops are I assume, much later than most areas as usual, so there is quite a bit of time before they start really using moisture. Earliest cereals are maybe 4 leaf. Earliest canola is two leaf. Lots of stuff just emerging now. So with all the moisture down below the seed, there is time, HERE at least.

It is concerning though that it simply seems it can not rain. We do not match the map, in that we would be more like less than 40% of average precip, in an area that the map says is 65 to 80%.

If this dryness is as widespread, and as true a the maps say, it could be one of those years to remember for the grandkids, both in terms of prices, and in terms of yields not to brag about.

[freewheat]

Forgot to say, I had plans to seed alfalfa on a 40 acre chunk for our sheep. But I may seed some oats there instead, because the hay looks so poor, and we need to get feed of some kind...

[charliep]

So I will ask the question again.

So if a dry/lower yielding scenario is in the works, which crops will benefit most from this outlook? Which crops least?
Most potential yield loss? Strongest demand factor?

Crops that will benefit the most - Crops where the majority is grown for the domestic market (feed grains) or where western Canada makes up a major part of world trade/has seen strong exports (pulses, durum, maybe flax).

Somewhat more neutral with bigger swings - crops that are more a blend of domestic and export. Canola and maybe malt barley. Eventually importers will move their business to where they can secure want they want at a lower cost.

Crops that will have the biggest struggle - Wheat. Truly a world crop with Canada/north America along for the ride. Better quality in drought year (maybe) will help.

[charliep]

Actually the maps are likely more relevant to the cattle side. Had started to increase cow numbers/retain heifers but the scenario from these graphs will likely put that on hold. A part of the rationing process on reduced feed supplies - pasture, forage and grain.

[freewheat]

Charlie, you answered your own questions! lol.

I think canola may go through the roof if it is a true drought. Canola sucks in drought. Lots of export needs and lots of domestic crush now. If they wanna keep running, they will need to pay up.

I agree on the feed grains too. Barley and faba do not do well in drought apparently. The local hog barns will pay up to the point it becomes feasible to import corn. But they still need peas and faba beans.

If we get a really bad production year, those with the fortunate mix of crops, and a few timely rains will be laughing all the way to the bank.

Those who get dried right out will be watching prices go up, with little to sell.

Wait, that is what we in the mud did for most of the last decade, and I do not wish it on anyone. It is bad enough having poor crops. But watching while 80% of the prairies rolls in the dough sucks. But the bad new is, if this weather keeps up, it will be more like 80% watching the 20% of lucky folks.

To all on here, I hope we are the lucky ones, to a one.

Good luck on catching those elusive rains. Even here in the wet zone, it is a matter of time. That rain the other night, when I was all excited and sitting under the tin roof of my kids playhouse, did not give us enough to wet the top half inch where my canola sits waiting... Another ten minutes of rain would have done it...

[charliep]

Somewhat depend on how MCOOL get sorted out, western Canada will see a lot of calves moving south or at least the finishing side. Likely makes a lot more sense to ship a 850 pound steer south to cheap corn versus bringing 3500 pounds/90 tonnes of corn north to finish that same steer.

Forage supplies with the fit of annual crops will be a key issue over the winter.

[charliep]

Too early in the morning or some other excuse. I may have to even mention age.

Lets make that 3500 pounds into 1.6 tonnes. 500 pounds of gain times feed conversion of 7.

I am glad an animal doesn't eat a rail car of corn.

[farmaholic]

Freewheat. They tell us the lid on canola prices is soy and other veg oils. UNLESS exporter and "true/real (not COPA based margins) have room to pay up.

I agree Charlie, this dryness has to be tough on cattle production. Pastures and hay. Cattle are living creatures and have to eat. Not much you can do with a droughted out crop.