nice up day

[bucket]

Number 1 DNS 14 px is bid 9 bucks usd at the pnw. Basis is 330 over mpls Dec futures.

In Vancouver the price is unpublished but would be similar at 10 plus cdn.

No one thinks there is a problem?

rail freight is 37 a tonne moose jaw to Vancouver. Without bonus for 112 car unit. 20 bucks for elevation and others.

Just wtf happened to the other 2 bucks?

[mbdog]

I get that basis today can seemingly be anything. Just sayin on RS wheat/minny...if my 100 basis gets picked, that would be a 250$ swing in 4 months. Maybe 100 isn't enough? 150?Maybe we are in the process of establishing "Canadian" basis ranges. Nothing I can do but watch basis go positive, and think "whats up"? Good wheat just not there? Short of reading into "why", this pricing environment and the options we have to use is anything but transparent and predictable. One thing left to determine...minny wheat has a 5-25$ a bushel futures range..Basis has had a no/bid or /- negative 150 basis with positive basis yet to be determined. Same persons/bodies have tremendous influence on both. Not saying its bad...far from it vs the old CWB model where you had no choice of who took the grain...just frustrating for producers to price into.

[charliep]

I would not just concentrate on one day but look at the charts. We remain in a sideways to slightly upward pattern. I suspect we are stuck in this pattern for the winter with futures prices losing carry as the nearby futures fall off the board.

My only other comment is that basis levels are highly variable in the US as well. A chart posted I posted in another thread.

[URL="http://wbc.agr.mt.gov/wbc/Buyers/Transportation/Charts/gfallsdnsbasis.pdf"]Great Falls DNS basis[/URL]

[bucket]

Locals have positive basis here on wheat.


But no foreign exchange so it could go plus 30 a tonne to be a true zero basis.

I think there have been some sales made out of Vancouver. Now they have to move it. Why they want to wait til weather sues in December is beyond me.

But wtf no one is monitoring the grain flow anyway.

[mbdog]

Charlie...not evaluating a snap shot. basis has been trending better for RS. My question is when does basis quit going positive and futures respond? Thought futures were just political...basis getting just as bad...maybe worse if its distorting futures. That 150-200$/tonne basis swing is 4-5$ price range while futures drop 2$ish.?? Can/will grainco's premium up if everything gets buried in basis offerings now?

[farmaholic]

So, the market is dysfunctional?

[mbdog]

wheat basis the lead indicator to watch....for what its worth.

[bucket]

Yup. Positive basis but the graincos will end up trying to move a multi grade crop in winter months. They have learned nothing.

Delays delays delays. Excuses.

[mbdog]

Dysfunctional? How can anyone take the futures market seriously with the basis swinging so wildly? Futures seem to be lagging indicator lately....guess that's just the way things are. Long paper wheat?

[charliep]

mbdog

I'll post the MGEX December chart and the weekly. I think the bottom is in on the futures side but have been wrong many times before. Just off the weekly chart, I would next few to see if futures prices push towards $6/bu or move back into the old trading range.

[URL="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=MWZ14"]December[/URL]

<a href="http://www.farms.com/markets/?page=chart&sym=MWZ14&domain=farms&dis play_ice=1&enabled_ice_exchanges=&studies= Volume;&cancelstudy=&a=W">weekly&l t;/a>

On the basis side, I think they will continue to strenghthen on the quality side. If you have a lower protein or lower grade (bottom end 2/3), basis levels are likely to remain weak.

Will get me yelled at but wheat truly is a crop you will have to shop around this year and be patient with. Prices/delivery opportunities will reflect companies sales programs and timing. Over the past year, there is a great of variability in different companies wheat prices on any given day. I guess you guys liked the old world where there was a price (actually initial payment) but that is world is gone.

The advice remains know what you got in your bins, do your homework to find the opportunities and be patient to get the realistic price you want.