nice up day

[Hopperbin]

Markets up today. Anyone want to through in their two cents? Since I feel I dont know shit rightnow. Green peas mostly gone but looks rising. Canola creeping up last few days is it at somewhere important? Wheat is just a grrading nightmare. But where is it headed. Does the world need our hrs wheat bad enough to pay? All about basis maybe? Or are going to have another train wreck where nothing is exported and its a shit show back up again. This year is scary. Next year country but need to get through thus year.

[ColevilleH2S]

Are grain markets up only because money from the equity selloff is looking for a place to park? This could be short lived.

[Hopperbin]

That is another question. Good one though.

[cottonpicken]

Thats the whole point to all of it.

Watching where capital is flowing into and out of.

[Hopperbin]

Well maybe I should get a spouse and get her him to market it.

[Klause]

A Him eh?

I'm starting to worry about you, Hopper.... LOL.


I will retract my earlier statement. I see canola rangebound for a bit but then dropping with soys.... Soys are going to take a tumble as soon as the US harvest gets going in earnst.

[mbdog]

Does it matter?? checked basis...canola worsened 5-10$, wheat improved 8-12$...wheat basis swung 150$ over 3-4 months...what a pricing system. Gonna target 100 basis RS wheat....likely gets picked. Who the hell knows

[Hopperbin]

Canola is a retarded sister. .something needs.to happen so we get the prices we deserve.

[Hopperbin]

Dont worry about me klause I do that myself. My ass is virgin ass and intend to keep it that way. Not easy when farming right?

[bucket]

Speaking of soys it sounds like harvest is not keeping up with movement. So even if harvest gets going they are ready.

And the longer it's delayed the smaller the crop.

[bucket]

Number 1 DNS 14 px is bid 9 bucks usd at the pnw. Basis is 330 over mpls Dec futures.

In Vancouver the price is unpublished but would be similar at 10 plus cdn.

No one thinks there is a problem?

rail freight is 37 a tonne moose jaw to Vancouver. Without bonus for 112 car unit. 20 bucks for elevation and others.

Just wtf happened to the other 2 bucks?

[mbdog]

I get that basis today can seemingly be anything. Just sayin on RS wheat/minny...if my 100 basis gets picked, that would be a 250$ swing in 4 months. Maybe 100 isn't enough? 150?Maybe we are in the process of establishing "Canadian" basis ranges. Nothing I can do but watch basis go positive, and think "whats up"? Good wheat just not there? Short of reading into "why", this pricing environment and the options we have to use is anything but transparent and predictable. One thing left to determine...minny wheat has a 5-25$ a bushel futures range..Basis has had a no/bid or /- negative 150 basis with positive basis yet to be determined. Same persons/bodies have tremendous influence on both. Not saying its bad...far from it vs the old CWB model where you had no choice of who took the grain...just frustrating for producers to price into.

[charliep]

I would not just concentrate on one day but look at the charts. We remain in a sideways to slightly upward pattern. I suspect we are stuck in this pattern for the winter with futures prices losing carry as the nearby futures fall off the board.

My only other comment is that basis levels are highly variable in the US as well. A chart posted I posted in another thread.

[URL="http://wbc.agr.mt.gov/wbc/Buyers/Transportation/Charts/gfallsdnsbasis.pdf"]Great Falls DNS basis[/URL]

[bucket]

Locals have positive basis here on wheat.


But no foreign exchange so it could go plus 30 a tonne to be a true zero basis.

I think there have been some sales made out of Vancouver. Now they have to move it. Why they want to wait til weather sues in December is beyond me.

But wtf no one is monitoring the grain flow anyway.

[mbdog]

Charlie...not evaluating a snap shot. basis has been trending better for RS. My question is when does basis quit going positive and futures respond? Thought futures were just political...basis getting just as bad...maybe worse if its distorting futures. That 150-200$/tonne basis swing is 4-5$ price range while futures drop 2$ish.?? Can/will grainco's premium up if everything gets buried in basis offerings now?