crush margins must be HUGE!

[cottonpicken]

This could have possibly been the greatest monthly
gain in corns HISTORY.

Hedge funds were not in the ball game during other
supply crisis',but they did mess with spring wheat a
few years back.

[charliep]

For what it is worth, the last run up in corn took out a
major ethanol producing company. They didn't
manage the risk around their corn ethanol margin
and got caught off side similar to Newco. Big risks
for processors and the need to manage their margins.
Hard to do in a market with limit moves or close to a
regular occurrence.

[cottonpicken]

I'm worried about the family farms that can't cover
contracts and end up getting a bill.

[charliep]

That is what crop insurance is for. If
you live in Alberta, you have variable
price benefit as a standard feature. In
saskatchewan,you had the alternative of
variable prime option.

[cottonpicken]

Ethanol company over family farm and thats what
crop insurance is for?

Explain that to me like i'm 3 years old.

If your taking crop insurance,your hurting and an
extra bill to off set a trade loss,when your hurting????

I've brought this scenario up before,it is now
happening.

[cottonpicken]

Oh,yea,ethanol-the absolutely stupidest idea ever

If you own shares-get out.

[cottonpicken]

A riddle

And then get back in/in time

WithIn 15 years not a bushel of corn will go through
the plants

WithIn 15 years the ethanol plants will be at max
production

[charliep]

Just an acknowledgement that farmers face risk and
crops insurance/forward pricing are ways to deal with
it. Both give up gain but they also protect against
pain. If things hadn't got dry across the mid west, we
would be talking $4.50/bu corn. Not the situation
but could have happened. If you live in Alberta, and
the canola price goes up 50 % in October, you crop
insurance coverage on canola could increase to
$16.50/bu.

In the world of volatility, you had better even more
time on insuring you know the financial backing of
your buyers (oneoff has made this point). Leave
ethanol alone but consider feed lot. Your buyer has
cattle with breakevens based on $6/bu corn (US
example). They didn't manage the risk on their feed
and corn prices increase to $8/bu. Major losses with
maybe the inability to pay.

Just trying to keep everyone focused on the bottom
line and making appropriate marketing decision. My
only thought is to use this rally to book at least some
of your production. Buy puts. Sign deferred delivery.
If basis levels are ugly and you have the resources to
make margin calls, sell futures. Stay in tune with the
market either watching for breaks in the charts or
setting targets. I don't think this rally will last for
ever. What will get you is not you know but what you
don't know.

Your most interesting You Tube was the scene from
Tin Cup with Kevin Kosner.

[charliep]

Interesting as you get older and you have lived
through stuff. Great grain robbery. 1988. 1993 (I
think). 2007/08. Likely others. These things come
and go. What is interesting to me is the demand lead
side of this rally (at least to June 15). Supply
generated rallies don't tend to have staying power in
my experience. But I could be proven wrong.

[mcfarms]

Charlie
Interestingly basis has narrowed the last couple days.
Was 8 under earlier in the week for jan 13 today it was 2 under. which allowed a over 14 dollar sale. I think if I start my sales at 14 and scale up I might be ok.
Lots and lots going on in the marketing world,