crush margins must be HUGE!

[gustgd]

Notice difference between old and new
crop.
http://www.cargillclavet.com/

[cottonpicken]

Its called backwardation.

Hmmmm..drought empty bins no sellers currency
bebasement short coverings=good times eh!

[BTO_farmall]

Thank You 4 Reminding Me Why I Don't Do Business with These Assholes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[mcfarms]

Thats actually 20 dollars under local basis at Viterra who was 61.09 over last week off Nov futures when we took a basis on remainder of old crop have a ladder of targets for it. Some of which have now hit at 15.00
Locked in a bunch of basis for Nov at 5 under elsewhere last week, has widened considereably since then I imagine. Should be able to price 14 nov canola within a short period. Should be an acceptable starting point to 2012 production/ sales;0

[wd9]

Finally got my 15 bucks yesterday! What's
next target, 15.50 or 16?

[tipsy]

REALLY... that is a non competive canola bid. It would appear that farmers that sell canola to Cargill are not aware of what other company's are offering for price.I guess it's not just fertilizer and fuel company's that can gouge their customer.

[ado089]

Not that I'm sticking up for Cargill,
because highly psd with them right now due
to CSCO issues, but their basis is FOB
farm.

[farmaholic]

ado089: May I ask what kind of problems your having with Cargill and their CSCO canola program??

[charliep]

Just curious how well farmers understand basis (even for canola)? Should anyone be surprised that canola basis levels are widening going into the fall? The flip from July futures pricing to November?

If you are struggling understanding canola basis, you are really going to be sent for a loop in the new wheat world. Have started to look at US wheat spreads (grade and protein) and level of variabilty (large). There are likely seasonality components as well. The new world will not be one of simple deductions to port but rather one that incorporates outside markets/quality factors as well as signals about what wheat is needed when and from there the signals to slow/speed up delivery. Are you ready?

[charliep]

As this market gets more volatile, watch for wider basis level/more protection - others will argue something else but not an easy job for grain companies/crushers to manage risk in a bronco like marketwith the ups and downs as well as the opportunity to get your head kicked (ie. lose major money). Markets that are doing straight up with gaps in the charts that will like to be filled at some point scare me. Likely to push higher until it rains short term. The July 11 USDA forecast will be interesting although not a survey based yield for either corn or soybeans.

[cottonpicken]

This could have possibly been the greatest monthly
gain in corns HISTORY.

Hedge funds were not in the ball game during other
supply crisis',but they did mess with spring wheat a
few years back.

[charliep]

For what it is worth, the last run up in corn took out a
major ethanol producing company. They didn't
manage the risk around their corn ethanol margin
and got caught off side similar to Newco. Big risks
for processors and the need to manage their margins.
Hard to do in a market with limit moves or close to a
regular occurrence.

[cottonpicken]

I'm worried about the family farms that can't cover
contracts and end up getting a bill.

[charliep]

That is what crop insurance is for. If
you live in Alberta, you have variable
price benefit as a standard feature. In
saskatchewan,you had the alternative of
variable prime option.

[cottonpicken]

Ethanol company over family farm and thats what
crop insurance is for?

Explain that to me like i'm 3 years old.

If your taking crop insurance,your hurting and an
extra bill to off set a trade loss,when your hurting????

I've brought this scenario up before,it is now
happening.