The Riverstone plant?

[cowman]

I assume most of you have heard of this proposed ethanol/crusher/bio deisel plant? It will be the biggest plant in North America...about three times bigger than the Husky plant at Lloydminister. Built by Riverstone/The Carlyle group(same company that basically owns Encana).
Rumor has it that the shortlist includes Camrose, Westlock and the Red Deer area.
A farmer south of Penhold told me this group(through a land company) has contacted him and his neighbors about buying land? After I heard this I phoned my councillor and asked her what did she know. She said the whole thing is still up in the air as the company is looking for the best deal?
I urged her to bend over backwards for these guys as this would be a total win for this area! She agreed and said they were doing all they could!
A $400 million plant, a huge market for canola and grain feed stocks!
The local fertilizer dealer always seems to know everything that is happening so hopefully I'll get a chance to talk to him in the next few days.

[GreenValley]

hear that it somewhere from Innisfail to Penhold on HWY 2a where train sit nearby. They mention town name under N_____. Very small town. This is great news for Alberta farmer. Wonder how much $ land per acre they paying for? Maybe ask my Innisfail friend if they heard?

[cowman]

Green valley: Niobe...not really a town...just a couple of elevators...exactly the location I was hearing by the farmer! Approx. 6 miles north of Innisfail maybe a little further to Penhold on the old 2A highway.

[grassfarmer]

Cowman,
I understand the initial enthusiasm of farmers towards the ethanol story - they have been taking poor prices for their commodities for a number of years and suddenly commodity prices are rising. That's half the story - the other half is to consider why commodity prices were poor in the past and if this will impact them in future with ethanol. Commodity prices across all sectors have been poor in recent years, not because there was no market - have you seen prime beef cattle destroyed because there was no demand for them? have you seen grain left in the fields because no-one was buying the grain? The answer to both is no. There are buyers but because of the nature of the buyers (few and powerful) they can artificially manipulate the product price. Evidence of that is to be seen when you compare beef prices in store or oats price in the store and compare it to the price producers receive.
With that clear evidence why would you expect producers to get rich in ethanol production if corn hits $5 for example? History shows it is likely the return to the producer will remain the same, or even decline over time. Look at the current fertiliser price predictions on the commodity boards to give you an idea of where this new found wealth in ethanol will go - it isn't headed for producers pockets.

Ethanol production from grain or canola will prove to be biggest white elephant of our generation IMHO. If we want to be more environmentally friendly (which was originally the idea behind all this wasn't it?)it would be smarter to seed more marginal grain land in western Canada down to pasture and move hundreds of thousands of cattle out of intensive livestock operations in the Oldman, Bow and South Saskatchewan River watersheds.
This would result in less greenhouse gas emissions than burning 8 barrels of ethanol to produce 10 barrels of ethanol. Ethanol production as it is proposed using grain crops is very inefficient. The driving force is really the Government subsidy that will pay millions of dollars into the pockets of the few large processors that are running plants. Just the same as the current beef situation with Cargill and Tyson - I don't see too many beef producers out buying new John Deeres or extra fertiliser based on the price of cattle.

[grassfarmer]

Perhaps bending over backwards to accommodate the Carlyle group isn't the best idea Cowman? Are you aware of this outfits activities and reputation?
A shadowy group of high profile presidents and ex presidents(both Bushes included) and associated other crooks that are the main arms suppliers to the US regime. They were happy to have the Bin Laden fortunes invested in their businesses before that became politically incorrect. Not content with that they are also playing the other side of the fence currently providing legal representation to Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz, in a trillion dollar lawsuit brought by the families of the victims of the 9/11 attacks. The suit alleges that the prince used Islamic charities as pass-throughs for shipping millions of dollars to groups linked to al-Qaeda.

And you think these people have an interest in putting a lot of money in the pockets of central Alberta farmers?

[Horse]

Havnt heard much as of late but I do know the farmers in the westlock area was sure counting on this plant, so what now a biding war to see who will buy the plant? I suspect Red Deer can out bid westlock but mabey the price of land and housing will make a difference.
I f it was up to me you can have it but then I dont care anymore. I quit being a slave to others and am just a slave to my own vises.

[coppertop]

AHA, horse do you want to enlighten us on what those vices are ? LOL

[GreenValley]

Cowman: that correct, it is Niobe. I have past that 2 elevators I think, and train track there, couple years back. It is rumor, say my friend.

[cowman]

My councillor told me it is not a done deal. The fact is just like Horse says: whoever passes out the best deal! best tax breaks, municipal infrastructure, etc.? Not sure if Red Deer county is better able to "buy" this plant or not? Without a doubt it will add a lot of good jobs to whatever area gets it as well a lot of spinoff activity. As far as farmers go don't know if it will matter that much whether it is Westlock or Camrose or Penhold?
I do believe it will add one more buyer in the mix and that is usually a good thing?
Grassfarmer: I agree with a lot of what you say. Bio fuel is sort of a joke? But the public has bought into the whole "green thing" and therefore the government? There is some opportunity here to take advantage of the eco-revolution? The consumer/government doesn't want to pay a decent price for food...but seem to have no problem paying for green friendly energy? If a substantial portion of grain/oilseeds are taken out of the food market, it stands to reason that the price for the remaining stock should rise?
Now I have no doubt the corporation will be extracting every dollar they can!
And by the way I share your disgust with the fertilizer industry...the prices they are charging, just because they can, are outrageous.
I do suspect if grain/oilseed prices remain strong we will see a shift out of forage and into grain/oilseeds? I think it was starting to happen last year? I think this is a good thing. Good for the farmers leaving livestock and good for those remaining in livestock? We have got ourselves in a situation where we depend on exports and with our main export market becoming very protectionist, I would think it would be better if we didn't have to rely on them? Before the CROW freight rate was killed we didn't have the problem of having to export? A stable market for our excess grain could reverse the trend?

[GreenValley]

FYI: Bush will announce State of Union on Jan 23 of which is next week, is likely to call of massive increase in US Ethanol usage, and one source saying possible Bush call for 60 billion gallon ethanol to mixed into gasoline by 2030. Currently at that time present ethanol usage is at around 5 to 6 billion gallon or just about 2 billion bushel of corn or 30 percent of total US production is at 10.5 billion bus down from 11.11 billion bus last year production. Also massive increase 7.5 billion gallon ethanol use by 2012 as US required by law. Watch for Bush call on Jan 23, if indeed call is correct, then we are for long haul as US is trying use home-grown fuel sources like ethanol to reduce U.S. dependency on oil imports.

[blackjack]

...with the oil companies owning most of the tech now in ethanol developement...it must be time...

[Horse]

Cowman shame shame on you it is outrageous for the fert companys to charge all they can but not the oil companys and service industrys and consultants ect ect.

[cowman]

Horse: Well you got me there! But really, gasoline prices basically follow the world price of crude oil? I know the companies do the old gouge every now and then, but maybe not so blatant as this fertilizer deal this year?
In the summer of 2006 natural gas prices were very low, around that $5 mmbtu range? This is the price the fertilizer companies bought at! Every fertilizer dealer worth his salt had his supply bought up by Oct 2006!
I would suggest the fertilizer business will be VERY profitable this year!
But you are right...what is good for the oil companies...should be fair for any other business! You caught me there!

[cowdog]

I suggest that anyone who cares to learn about the folly of producing ethanol from grain read the December issue of Scientific American, it is not even energy neutral according to several studies. It exists only because of government legislation. It is beening developed here only because of the close proximity to large quantities of natural gas needed to produce ethanol. The Alberta government may have even gave them a deal like they gave the oilsands; royalty free.
The people and corporations developing this plant are the some of the same people behind the push to destroy the CWB. If you don't see the connection let me spell it out to you. Currently Canadian wheat competes on the world stage, this and other plants being biult are expected to take up to 50% of the total wheat produced in Canada, this quanity would mean that they would have to compete for 3, 2 and even #1 wheat with the CWB customers at a world price. This would make these plants uneconomical even subsidised as they are; so why not eliminate the compatition.
Now a plant that could produce ethanol from straw or other grasses I would welcome.

[cowman]

Cowdog: well I think that is in the works! But you have to start somewhere? The federal government is legislating a blend? Whether it makes sense or not...we have to meet that target? Now we can play the game and get some benifit out of it for the average farmer...or we can buy it from the USA? One way or the other...there is no other option unless you change government policy?