Test Canola 60 bushel swath!!! Test

Commodity Marketing

Tools

Canola 60 bushel swath!!!

Test
Sep 9, 2022 | 17:47 1 But going 35 !!!!! Needed less heat and more rain but it’s only our farm I am sure . 😢 Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Sep 9, 2022 | 18:04 2 Had some like that too. Could hardly put through the lexion and ran 27 bpa. Lots are disappointed with canola yields here. Is yours by chance an invigor? Reply With Quote
    Sep 9, 2022 | 18:08 3 Sounds like thats the case allll over the place.. last bit of flowers likely got blasted off taking 15 bushels with it. Then if it was swathed anywhere under 70% seed color change in the heat that took another 5...
    Welllll atleast the price should go up? In... may..
    But but but
    Canada ag said its gonna be a great big harvest! Reply With Quote
    Sep 9, 2022 | 18:12 4 Proven 680 Reply With Quote
    Sep 9, 2022 | 19:12 5
    Quote Originally Posted by Robertbarlage View Post
    But going 35 !!!!! Needed less heat and more rain but it’s only our farm I am sure . 😢

    Much the same east and south of here
    But the satellite pictures showed all 60 bushel canola from space the experts said so
    I guess the satellites don’t see all the blanks ….. go figure eh , who woulda thought Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Sep 9, 2022 | 19:18 6
    Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
    Much the same east and south of here
    But the satellite pictures showed all 60 bushel canola from space the experts said so
    I guess the satellites don’t see all the blanks ….. go figure eh , who woulda thought

    What Satellite picture showed 60 bpa? Reply With Quote
    Sep 9, 2022 | 19:45 7 Big swath lots of straw and running about half to maybe two thirds of what it looks like. Reply With Quote
    Sep 9, 2022 | 19:49 8
    Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
    Much the same east and south of here
    But the satellite pictures showed all 60 bushel canola from space the experts said so
    I guess the satellites don’t see all the blanks ….. go figure eh , who woulda thought
    [ATTACH]11032[/ATTACH

    In 2022 STATSCAN is Satellite based - Ag Can used 37.7 bpa for SK.

    Crop reporters say 34 bpa - Take away the drought year - crop reporters under estimate 7.7 bpa


    I eat live breathe this sh it every day. Farmers only get 50% of the information they need.
    Buyers know what acres are seeded because of sales/input sales and returns and they talk to each other.
    If any one is using the original seeded acres from STATCAN farm phone calls in March - they need their head read.

    If you plugged in 41.7 into the SK production estimates and the real seeded acres; like traders are doing - you would sh it at the number.

    For the record Furrow, I've counted kernels on wheat heads from a Satellite picture that orbits at 705 km; but no one uses that tech yet ...and i say yet...because it is coming. Today's model is vegetative health based on a program that has data back to 1987.

    How many farmers in your area under 37.7 bpa canola and how many over?
    30 and 50 is a 40 bpa average.

    I don't want to fight - take the emotion out of the equation and look at the spreadsheet i just posted...Take away the drought year and this will be the lowest canola bpa posted in 4 years... STATSCAN never called it a bumper... in fact i don't think anyone did. Not even the fat lawyer child...
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Sep 9, 2022 | 20:36 9
    Quote Originally Posted by LWeber View Post
    [ATTACH]11032[/ATTACH

    In 2022 STATSCAN is Satellite based - Ag Can used 37.7 bpa for SK.

    Crop reporters say 34 bpa - Take away the drought year - crop reporters under estimate 7.7 bpa


    I eat live breathe this sh it every day. Farmers only get 50% of the information they need.
    Buyers know what acres are seeded because of sales/input sales and returns and they talk to each other.
    If any one is using the original seeded acres from STATCAN farm phone calls in March - they need their head read.

    If you plugged in 41.7 into the SK production estimates and the real seeded acres; like traders are doing - you would sh it at the number.

    For the record Furrow, I've counted kernels on wheat heads from a Satellite picture that orbits at 705 km; but no one uses that tech yet ...and i say yet...because it is coming. Today's model is vegetative health based on a program that has data back to 1987.

    How many farmers in your area under 37.7 bpa canola and how many over?
    30 and 50 is a 40 bpa average.

    I don't want to fight - take the emotion out of the equation and look at the spreadsheet i just posted...Take away the drought year and this will be the lowest canola bpa posted in 4 years... STATSCAN never called it a bumper... in fact i don't think anyone did. Not even the fat lawyer child...
    Agree for sure , but many areas they thought would be great are not even close . Meota to Turtleford are very good
    Just saying canola from road or satellite don’t see the main stem blanks like the guys in the seats
    Yup some great areas , but dryness and heat took a huge toll satellites can’t see , yet Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like

    LEP

  • Sep 9, 2022 | 20:39 10 10-15 miles south east , 30 bus canola ((25-40)
    Here , 35-55
    Meota 50-60
    All looked the same on vegetative maps end July basically

    All look the same swath today Reply With Quote
    Sep 9, 2022 | 20:43 11 Satellites can’t pick this out ….. yet




    Main stem blanks kill yield
    I live and breath this stuff too , from the ground though lol Reply With Quote
    Sep 9, 2022 | 20:47 12 Same with wheat , 35 SE of here , 55 here , and huge NW
    All looked the same
    The volume was identical , heads were not
    Fuel useage was identical as well , that’s what really hurts Reply With Quote
    Sep 9, 2022 | 21:11 13
    Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
    I live and breath this stuff too , from the ground though lol
    You sell seed - do you know how many acres were seeded in SK? Most everyone in the seed biz knows. How many farmers seeded more acres than they told STATSCAN in March. It was an insurance play - but the end result was the same.

    North Battleford NDVI index was never in the same league as Meota, Turtleford or Payton ..wasnt even close actually.

    I used to drive 12K during the summer...now just look at pictures ...count heads ... compare indexes and can cover more satellite ground than i ever did in a vehicle.
    AI will be doing the counts by 2025.

    And just in case you doubt the S&D's - I'll let Wheatking chime in on this....

    Name:  2022-09-09 205632.jpg
Views: 1413
Size:  34.8 KB

    Funds added 3461 contracts to their short to total 29,949 contracts. China just bought 4 months worth of seed in three weeks - covered until 2023.

    There is a huge moisture problem right now - but many won't notice until next June/July.
    Next June/July will be year 6 of the drought...

    Name:  drought.jpg
Views: 1425
Size:  96.6 KB

    Seen any of these while you were on the ground?

    Name:  crack.jpg
Views: 1417
Size:  96.5 KB Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Sep 9, 2022 | 21:22 14
    Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
    Agree for sure , but many areas they thought would be great are not even close . Meota to Turtleford are very good
    Just saying canola from road or satellite don’t see the main stem blanks like the guys in the seats
    Yup some great areas , but dryness and heat took a huge toll satellites can’t see , yet
    U are more right than u know. We had a lot of fields pegged at 50-60 and they ain’t making anywhere near that. Too much heat In July did it in. Not enuf subsoil. Some guys are doing alright but it depends a great deal on what kind of crop was grown last year and if u won the rain lottery this year Reply With Quote
    Sep 9, 2022 | 21:24 15 Well I do a *** of a lot more than sell seed lol
    Not disagreeing with you at all , totally respect everything you’ve done and still are 👍
    It was the last western producer article I was referring to actually .
    Yup ground is very dry , a rain next Tuesday will be welcome in many areas
    Take a breath , not arguing, just giving point of view from in the seat , on weigh wagon , scaled carts through out this area
    Many areas different
    That big rain event in June had huge impact in yields here . Up to 20 bus/ac on the same 1/2 section north to south
    And agree totally, it’s extremely dry and our inputs are going up crazy daily it seems .
    Probably will be an average canola crop . A lot of big crop areas , never said it would not . Just that some big crop areas , it’s not there , and marginal rain areas are far less than expected. Have not put out a projected yield , but a lot of areas will not be what they should . Zero subsoil and lack of rain at a very critical time are making for disappointments
    Last edited by furrowtickler; Sep 9, 2022 at 21:31.
    Reply With Quote
    Sep 9, 2022 | 21:26 16
    Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
    Well I do a *** of a lot more than sell seed lol
    Not disagreeing with you at all , totally respect everything you’ve done and still are 👍
    It was the last western producer article I was referring to actually .
    Yup ground is very dry , a rain next Tuesday will be welcome in many areas
    Take a breath , not arguing, just giving point of view from in the seat , on weigh wagon , scaled carts through out this area
    Many areas different
    That big rain event in June had huge impact today
    fk it ...get done , lets go fishing Reply With Quote

  • Sep 9, 2022 | 21:34 17
    Quote Originally Posted by LWeber View Post
    fk it ...get done , lets go fishing
    8 good days
    12 bad days

    I be ready 👍 Reply With Quote
    Sep 9, 2022 | 21:54 18
    Quote Originally Posted by FarmJunkie View Post
    U are more right than u know. We had a lot of fields pegged at 50-60 and they ain’t making anywhere near that. Too much heat In July did it in. Not enuf subsoil. Some guys are doing alright but it depends a great deal on what kind of crop was grown last year and if u won the rain lottery this year
    Exactly the same everywhere here Reply With Quote
    Sep 9, 2022 | 22:06 19 As far as canola yields western Canada wide , I have no idea , but I did predict the frost at the full moon 3 weeks ago
    Last edited by furrowtickler; Sep 10, 2022 at 04:37.
    Reply With Quote
    Sep 9, 2022 | 22:11 20 Yields??
    What would Neil say ?? Reply With Quote
    Sep 9, 2022 | 22:13 21
    Quote Originally Posted by caseih View Post
    Yields??
    What would Neil say ??
    Record production across the board
    Jack up all their input costs to the max !!!
    Meanwhile grain prices nosediving into the abyss
    Last edited by furrowtickler; Sep 9, 2022 at 22:16.
    Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • jazz's Avatar Sep 9, 2022 | 22:34 22
    Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
    Record production across the board
    Jack up all their input costs to the max !!!
    Meanwhile grain prices nosediving into the abyss
    Commodities are being affected by fed tightening right now. They won’t be able to to keep that up much longer. When oil breaks out in oct nov so will grains and improve again.

    Inputs, not sure how that genie gets put back in the bottle. Reply With Quote
    Sep 9, 2022 | 22:46 23
    Quote Originally Posted by LWeber View Post

    Seen any of these while you were on the ground?

    Name:  crack.jpg
Views: 1417
Size:  96.5 KB
    Midrow bander? They’ll do that here on every row in the gumbo Reply With Quote
    Sep 9, 2022 | 22:52 24
    Quote Originally Posted by Freightshaker View Post
    Midrow bander? They’ll do that here on every row in the gumbo
    Should add it takes alot of rain to fix that as well! Reply With Quote
    Sep 9, 2022 | 23:02 25
    Quote Originally Posted by Freightshaker View Post
    Midrow bander? They’ll do that here on every row in the gumbo
    That’s my guess for sure in dry gumbo now Reply With Quote
    Sep 10, 2022 | 08:50 26
    Quote Originally Posted by Freightshaker View Post
    Midrow bander? They’ll do that here on every row in the gumbo
    Rural Municipality of Fertile Valley No. 285
    Near Conquest SK Reply With Quote
    Sep 10, 2022 | 09:32 27
    Quote Originally Posted by LWeber View Post
    You sell seed - do you know how many acres were seeded in SK? Most everyone in the seed biz knows. How many farmers seeded more acres than they told STATSCAN in March. It was an insurance play - but the end result was the same.

    North Battleford NDVI index was never in the same league as Meota, Turtleford or Payton ..wasnt even close actually.

    I used to drive 12K during the summer...now just look at pictures ...count heads ... compare indexes and can cover more satellite ground than i ever did in a vehicle.
    AI will be doing the counts by 2025.

    And just in case you doubt the S&D's - I'll let Wheatking chime in on this....

    Name:  2022-09-09 205632.jpg
Views: 1413
Size:  34.8 KB

    Funds added 3461 contracts to their short to total 29,949 contracts. China just bought 4 months worth of seed in three weeks - covered until 2023.

    There is a huge moisture problem right now - but many won't notice until next June/July.
    Next June/July will be year 6 of the drought...

    Name:  drought.jpg
Views: 1425
Size:  96.6 KB

    Seen any of these while you were on the ground?

    Name:  crack.jpg
Views: 1417
Size:  96.5 KB
    I can't comment on the S&D numbers as they are not part of my analysis.

    However, I have been bearish NOV Canola since 1038.

    It's a voodoo thing. Reply With Quote
  • 1 Like


  • Sep 10, 2022 | 12:20 28 Just a crazy guess ….



    Red well below average
    Blue average
    Green above

    In general ?? Minus pockets of good and bad ?? Reply With Quote
    Sep 10, 2022 | 13:37 29
    Quote Originally Posted by furrowtickler View Post
    Just a crazy guess ….



    Red well below average
    Blue average
    Green above

    In general ?? Minus pockets of good and bad ??
    I am one hour east of Medicine Hat, north of the # 1 hwy. We had 30 bu/acre of straw and about 15-20 bpa of durum going into the tank. That was summerfallow. Pea stubble , best I did was 14 , most was 11-12. Straw is cleaner at least , not a weed lovers paradise like last year. One or two more inches of rain were needed , when you start off with an empty soil profile. Reply With Quote
    Partners's Avatar Sep 10, 2022 | 13:37 30 Started on canola.
    Looks 40 to 50.
    Going 30.. Reply With Quote