StatsCan Report

[jazz]

Wheat & canola

https://www.producer.com/news/drought-shrinks-canadas-wheat-crop-to-14-year-low-shrivels-canola-harvest/


Major Drop in Canadian Pulse Output

OTTAWA - Aug 30/21 - SNS -- Pulse production in western Canada is down sharply this year, according to the first production estimate of the year from Statistics Canada.

For the first time the August crop report was not based on a survey of farmers. Instead, Statistics Canada used a model based approach based on satellite imaging and data from the Crop Condition Assessment Program which looks at overall plant health.

Output of all pulses is currently estimated at 4.98 million metric tons (MT), down 39% from last year's 8.166 million MT harvest and 33% below the previous year average of 7.479 million.

[Old Cowzilla]

Eye in the sky and custom sprayers know the score on what's going down. Don't know how those guys that throw darts at a wall keep there job oh wait wonder who's paying them.

[farming101]

Not that our local conditions matter at all, but what might be our best canola yielded in the teens. Thought it might do 20+.
Wheat is 5% lighter bushel weight after getting rained on.

[furrowtickler]

Not that our local conditions matter at all, but what might be our best canola yielded in the teens. Thought it might do 20+.
Wheat is 5% lighter bushel weight after getting rained on.

Same thing in this area .
The very odd canola field is above 20
Hearing some 5 bus just west of here, and there will be moreif not wrote off already
We started yesterday, pockets are surprisingly good but the thin spots and burn out areas are keeping a lid on much anything over 20
Anyone who had good soil moisture from last year those yields are decent , close to average but that is very far and few between here . The pocket SW of the Battlefords has some goof yields from a few extra rains . East and NE is a lot of way below average. Just simply zero reserve soil moisture at all .

[jazz]

Statscan using satellite imagery? They could easily be off another 10% on these estimates. The data was compiled for July 31 so its pretty out of date. Been a lot of hail and rain since then.

[bucket]

Statscan using satellite imagery? They could easily be off another 10% on these estimates. The data was compiled for July 31 so its pretty out of date. Been a lot of hail and rain since then.

Wait until they see later imagery where crops and weeds, mostly weeds , start to grow or regrow and they think there is an even bigger crop coming.

[sumdumguy]

[QUOTE=jazz;507783]Statscan using satellite imagery? They could easily be off another 10% on these estimates. The data was compiled for July 31 so its pretty out of date. Been a lot of hail and rain since then.[/QUOTE


One lentil field just south of us is grass-grass green hoppers ate all the pods and it’ll make nice silage at best. The field across the road from it is getting greener and thinner by the day.

Anyone remember Otto Lang’s Lift program? Farmers were paid to not plant wheat. I was very young then but there was some sort of aerial maps used to make that payment. Then in about 2000, in paying a farm program back then, satellite imagery was used to weed out forage acres. It was actually quite accurate but the assessors were fooled because of crop stages. For instance young barley was very green and was mistaken for forage.

So, I think 10% lopped off of July 31 estimates is a pretty reasonable.

[Hamloc]

Barley still predicted at 7.8 mmt. down from over 10. So only a 25% reduction? I find this optimistic. Overall I would think the numbers will be smaller going forward, the only question is how much.

[bucket]

If there was a barley crop why so much advertising that unit trains of corn coming into Canada to be resold to ranchers.?

Does imported corn identify as barley production to statscan?

[fjlip]

"Don't know how those guys that throw darts at a wall keep there job oh wait wonder who's paying them."

See more "EXPERTS", ya they are all so believable!

[AlbertaFarmer5]

Barley still predicted at 7.8 mmt. down from over 10. So only a 25% reduction? I find this optimistic. Overall I would think the numbers will be smaller going forward, the only question is how much.

We are probably better off in the long term if all of the bullish news isn't released now into the depth of harvest pressure, where this news would be overwhelmed by seasonal selling pressure.
If The reality of the situation is not publicized until the typical post harvest price recovery period, it will just be fuel to the fire.
While on the other hand, it would be hard to believe that any of the major market participants wouldn't already know the reality on the ground. They're really shouldn't be many speculators in The barley market considering that there is no futures market. Just producers and end users, and a few Middle Men. I Don't know of any brokers that speculate.

[Old Cowzilla]

If there was a barley crop why so much advertising that unit trains of corn coming into Canada to be resold to ranchers.?

Does imported corn identify as barley production to statscan?

Crop ins. adjusted mine at 15 bu. when I baled it. My neighbors barley next door which I thought looked better was combined yielding a whopping 8 bu.

[SASKFARMER]

I said it before and I will say it again from someone who actually did a crop tour and actually has grown canola since the 70s on our farm the total production number is





12.7 or lower.

Not a satellite just boots on the ground.

[bucket]

Estimating a crop once the combine roll is not or shouldn't be rocket science for the people in government.

If you look at a 5 year average in canola as an example. And guys say their yield is off 60 percent or the y are getting 40 percent of average..

21MMT times 0.4 equals 8.4MMt . Do I think we are that low , its getting closer to that every day and any estimate over 14MMT is manipulation of the market and should be investigated as such.

When Statscan or agcanda can buffer the numbers 2 years after the fact , the system isn't working.

My guess would be by 2023 , this current drought holds, Canada will be importing more than just canola.

Disclaimer by the dumbphuckled farmer: An inch of rain does not cure a drought!!!!!!

[furrowtickler]

Estimating a crop once the combine roll is not or shouldn't be rocket science for the people in government.

If you look at a 5 year average in canola as an example. And guys say their yield is off 60 percent or the y are getting 40 percent of average..

21MMT times 0.4 equals 8.4MMt . Do I think we are that low , its getting closer to that every day and any estimate over 14MMT is manipulation of the market and should be investigated as such.

When Statscan or agcanda can buffer the numbers 2 years after the fact , the system isn't working.

My guess would be by 2023 , this current drought holds, Canada will be importing more than just canola.

Disclaimer by the dumbphuckled farmer: An inch of rain does not cure a drought!!!!!!

Excellent post and very accurate, well said