US GDP Rebound

[jazz]

Estimating a 37% rebound in Q3. That will pretty much bring the US back in line with precovid. Hope you didnt sell your stocks.

[TOM4CWB]

Estimating a 37% rebound in Q3. That will pretty much bring the US back in line with precovid. Hope you didnt sell your stocks.

[ATTACH]6895[/ATTACH]

From BBC

"The US economy emerged quickly from the depths of the crisis triggered by coronavirus lockdowns this spring, but full recovery remains out of reach.
Official figures show the economy grew at a record 7.4% in the three months to 30 September from the prior quarter, when it suffered a severe decline.
But output remained 2.9% lower compared to the same period a year ago.
The data comes as analysts warn the rebound may be running out of steam.
"Overall, the initial recovery in GDP after the first wave of lockdowns were lifted was stronger than we originally anticipated," said Paul Ashworth, chief US economist at Capital Economics.
"But, with coronavirus infections hitting a record high in recent days and any additional fiscal stimulus unlikely to arrive until, at the earliest, the start of next year, further progress will be much slower."
...

"On an annual basis - the way the US prefers to measure growth, which assumes such rates would continue for 12 months - the economy grew by some 33% in the third quarter, following a record 31% contraction in the second.
But after the initial burst of activity, jobs growth has slowed and employers have yet to restore more than 10 million positions cut during the spring."

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54723914

[Oliver88]

+33.1%

How does Canada’s numbers compare?

[Guest]

+33.1%

How does Canada’s numbers compare?

cmon oliver , thats not fair, we have an incompetent child steering this shitshow

[agstar77]

Market is voting on GDP. Does not believe it. No big rally.

[jazz]

Market is voting on GDP. Does not believe it. No big rally.

Market is betting on Biden and China. They are about to be proven fools again. The numbers are undeniable just like covid. You arent a denier are you?

[Austrian Economics]

GDP simply measures all the spending and borrowing that goes on in an economy. It does not differentiate between productive and unproductive spending. Much of the current boost to GDP is the result of the worldwide push for governments to borrow unprecedented sums of capital and then dole it out to be consumed. The Trump administration has been as much a proponent of this strategy as any other. Exploding deficits at all levels of government should not be celebrated.

The GDP boost comes as a result of racking up debts that ultimately cannot be repaid.

[jazz]

The GDP boost comes as a result of racking up debts that ultimately cannot be repaid.

How we track and goose GDP is totally open for debate, but look at this way, Trump brought it back faster than any other nation and can now pivot away from stimulus and let whatever real economy takes its place.

Places like Canada will be living on it for possibly another yr. maybe two, pushing much harder on our debt ceiling and fiscal limits. Quick sharp pain is always better than prolonged torture.

[ajl]

Market is voting on GDP. Does not believe it. No big rally.

Looks like the traders are coming around now.

[Oliver88]

How is Trump’s high popularity going to influence swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin?

[Austrian Economics]

How we track and goose GDP is totally open for debate, but look at this way, Trump brought it back faster than any other nation and can now pivot away from stimulus and let whatever real economy takes its place.

Places like Canada will be living on it for possibly another yr. maybe two, pushing much harder on our debt ceiling and fiscal limits. Quick sharp pain is always better than prolonged torture.

What would lead you to believe that Trump has any intention to pivot away from stimulus should he remain as President? By all accounts, he seems to embrace it.

[farming101]

CAD forex down 1%. Poor GDP #'s tomorrow?

Might add my idea back on Oct 12 that there might be a bit of a pop in the CAD turned out to be a flop

[helmsdale]

What would lead you to believe that Trump has any intention to pivot away from stimulus should he remain as President? By all accounts, he seems to embrace it.

In the short term news cycle world, there is NO BENEFIT politically to turning off the spigot. People want EASY solutions, and by god it's up to government (of all stripes/colors/persuasions) to give them what they want!

People might list debt and deficits as a "primary concern" politically, but when they're buried in debt long past their eyeballs themselves it's little more than virtue signalling. Majority of people are worried about their own debt situations, but damn, when they dangle the low interest carrot, you're thought to be sctoopid not to put in on plastic!

They say things like, "I've earned it", or "I deserve it", or "You only live once". How can we expect our politicians to live within their means, when the majority of the populace is incapable itself?

[Austrian Economics]

Further to the idea that rising GDP means a healthy economy. Suppose someone loses their job due to the lockdown, and the government borrows enough to pay that person to stay home and not work, and they wind up making a bit more than they used to at their old job. GDP goes up! But is the economy healthier because we now pay people not to work? Not a chance.

[errolanderson]

GDP simply measures all the spending and borrowing that goes on in an economy. It does not differentiate between productive and unproductive spending. Much of the current boost to GDP is the result of the worldwide push for governments to borrow unprecedented sums of capital and then dole it out to be consumed. The Trump administration has been as much a proponent of this strategy as any other. Exploding deficits at all levels of government should not be celebrated.

The GDP boost comes as a result of racking up debts that ultimately cannot be repaid.

AE, you are totally right . . . .

Also, a 31% decline in the 2nd quarter to a 33% rise in the 3rd quarter still means the U.S. economy is shrinking. 33% gain is the result of a much smaller pie. 4th quarter economic reality will be interesting