China refuses purchases of all Canadian canola;

[Hamloc]

Unfortunately I don't see a quick resolution to this problem. The Chinese government just keeps ratcheting up the pressure and Canada does nothing. The question is how long will it be before Meng Wanzhou's case is actually heard in court and resolved? If this period is 6 months to a year how much canola is going to be backed up in storage? There is already a larger carryover of soybeans in U.S. and now the canola carryover in Canada will increase. It is one helluva of a mess. On a side note took a quick look at the results from Ritchie's sale in Foremost yesterday looks like farmers still have lots of money for the big ticket items.

[SASKFARMER3]

Guys are buying tractors if they need one at RB, not the dealerships. It's happening 529000 vs 300000.

But yea I cancelled all spring deals yesterday.

[shtferbrains]

CBC found the guy to say "No problem"

Right here at the U of S.

"It's showing up a little bit in the market, but the market didn't collapse or anything," said Richard Gray, who is also the Canadian Grain Policy Chair at the U of S.

"It's not as catastrophic as 'Oh, we'll sell 40 per cent less canola next year.' It's no where near like that," Gray said. "A far greater issue would be, if in fact, there was a major problem that interfered with the total demand of grains in China."

If it's just a case of China refusing to buy Canadian canola, then Gray said the effects felt by canola producers could be offset by markets typically serviced by the United States, especially if the U.S. sells more to China in lieu of Canadian grain.

I'm sure Ottawa will respect the opinion of our Canadian Grain Policy Chair at the U of S.

As the pig used to say "Th-th-th-that's all folks!"

[MBgrower]

Unfortunately I don't see a quick resolution to this problem. The Chinese government just keeps ratcheting up the pressure and Canada does nothing. The question is how long will it be before Meng Wanzhou's case is actually heard in court and resolved? If this period is 6 months to a year how much canola is going to be backed up in storage? There is already a larger carryover of soybeans in U.S. and now the canola carryover in Canada will increase. It is one helluva of a mess. On a side note took a quick look at the results from Ritchie's sale in Foremost yesterday looks like farmers still have lots of money for the big ticket items.

better to buy one year used at half price than new. i suspect ritchies could have a very good year this year.

[ajl]

CBC found the guy to say "No problem"

Right here at the U of S.

"It's showing up a little bit in the market, but the market didn't collapse or anything," said Richard Gray, who is also the Canadian Grain Policy Chair at the U of S.

"It's not as catastrophic as 'Oh, we'll sell 40 per cent less canola next year.' It's no where near like that," Gray said. "A far greater issue would be, if in fact, there was a major problem that interfered with the total demand of grains in China."

If it's just a case of China refusing to buy Canadian canola, then Gray said the effects felt by canola producers could be offset by markets typically serviced by the United States, especially if the U.S. sells more to China in lieu of Canadian grain.

I'm sure Ottawa will respect the opinion of our Canadian Grain Policy Chair at the U of S.

As the pig used to say "Th-th-th-that's all folks!"

Even if we sell 10% less canola in 19-20 with an average price $1 per bushel less, the effect will be staggering and I think the damage is worse than that already. The whole Meng thing is just a side show though as China will be buying less canola, Meng or no Meng since it's economy is failing. All the money it does have will need to be spent buying access to the US market as it has no other home for its exports. That is the real issue.

[checking]

If Chemchina owns Adama products (should look this shit up, but I won't), and sells those products especially to large Canadian farmers to apply on their crops, would you not expect that all those crop residues, if any, are registered to enter back into the Chinese market? Surely China wouldn't produce, and sell to farmers of Canada, "pests" that they now won't accept back into their country. China chemicals, including glyphosate couldn't be a problem, could it? LOL

I thought that John Manley stated the situation diplomatically correct, as well, Bob. His firing was uncalled for by Trouble. China may have been placated somewhat if our dense bunny would have allowed Manley's comments to stand.

[helmsdale]

If the ban on pea imports is as has been reported as of last night, it's going to be a nightmare. Perhaps worse than canola on a price per bushel basis?

Their massive increase from 2016/17 to 2017/18 soaked up some of the dampened demand from India, and likely kept our prices somewhat buoyed.


Last year, they took ~1.5MMT of ~2.4MMT of production. Many sources I'm seeing online were expecting them to purchase ~2MMT of an estimated 3MMT of domestic production. If we lose 2/3 of the market, where on gods green earth do they possibly go and for what price do they go to be competitive with the Black Sea and others? If a ban on pea imports continues, future movement will be next to impossible, and if it extends into this upcoming crop year...

[Oliver88]

Even if we sell 10% less canola in 19-20 with an average price $1 per bushel less, the effect will be staggering and I think the damage is worse than that already. The whole Meng thing is just a side show though as China will be buying less canola, Meng or no Meng since it's economy is failing. All the money it does have will need to be spent buying access to the US market as it has no other home for its exports. That is the real issue.

According to Statistics Canada, the prairies averaged 40 + BPA last year.

This $1/bushel decrease is a reduction of $40/acre of net income for canola farmers.

That’s a significant haircut, spending will have to be adjusted accordingly.

[helmsdale]

If Chemchina owns Adama products (should look this shit up, but I won't), and sells those products especially to large Canadian farmers to apply on their crops, would you not expect that all those crop residues, if any, are registered to enter back into the Chinese market? Surely China wouldn't produce, and sell to farmers of Canada, "pests" that they now won't accept back into their country. China chemicals, including glyphosate couldn't be a problem, could it? LOL

I thought that John Manley stated the situation diplomatically correct, as well, Bob. His firing was uncalled for by Trouble. China may have been placated somewhat if our dense bunny would have allowed Manley's comments to stand.

According to Wiki, ChemChina took a 60% equity stake in Adama Agricultural Solutions in October 2011, and then purchased the remaining 40% of stock in June 2017 to become the sole owner.

[bucket]

According to Statistics Canada, the prairies averaged 40 + BPA last year.

This $1/bushel decrease is a reduction of $40/acre of net income for canola farmers.

That’s a significant haircut, spending will have to be adjusted accordingly.

Sure is a haircut...but the middlemen still take their fees....

Railways still get their pound of flesh....

[checking]

Ty, helmsdale.

I should put you on my payroll.

[furrowtickler]

Sure is a haircut...but the middlemen still take their fees....

Railways still get their pound of flesh....

Yup , the entire Ag industry that makes its living off of us producers..... is quiet yet again ..
can you imagine if the whole Ag industry, machinery dealers/companies , Vitera, Richardson, ADM , P&H, Corteva, Bayer, Cargil ect, and all the very wealthy independent Ag dealers ( Bairs, The Rack, Synergy, Cavalier Ag, and many others) actually got together and stood up for their customers who pay dearly to keep their lights on here in western Canada .....
One voice to Ottawa on behalf of the only group in Canada that is going to feel any real financial hit from this whole political side show with China ..... nah , all these Ag companies will just send out reminders that your next bill needs to be paid ASAP ..... that’s exactly what will happen sadly .

[farmaholic]

Why didn't "Intelligence" contact her and tell her not to come to Canada? What is the timeline? Was she already enroute when the US requested her apprehension? One covert phone call and the scope of this fiasco could have been substantially reduced. Not saying there could have been other issues but maybe not to this extent.

A little foresight could have went a long way in mitigating almost everything China has done to retaliate, not just affecting Ag either!!!

As usual, in relation to the current situation, hindsight is useless, but only if we never learned anything from this episode.

Feels like there will be more USA "buses" on the way, could feel the pain for a while yet.

[bucket]

Yup , the entire Ag industry that makes its living off of us producers..... is quiet yet again ..
can you imagine if the whole Ag industry, machinery dealers/companies , Vitera, Richardson, ADM , P&H, Corteva, Bayer, Cargil ect, and all the very wealthy independent Ag dealers ( Bairs, The Rack, Synergy, Cavalier Ag, and many others) actually got together and stood up for their customers who pay dearly to keep their lights on here in western Canada .....
One voice to Ottawa on behalf of the only group in Canada that is going to feel any real financial hit from this whole political side show with China ..... nah , all these Ag companies will just send out reminders that your next bill needs to be paid ASAP ..... that’s exactly what will happen sadly .

Furrow

There is nothing wrong with everyone making a profit but it has to leave enough for the host to throw a party for the leeches....

As big as Richardson is ....I'm not sure they can sustain a prolonged hit like this....

Making the case to ensure both producers and industry to muddle through the incompetence of Trudeau.....and his team...

[BreadWinner]

I can see $7.50 Canola!!!!!!
Holy shit better get your pencils sharpened up boys..... this will separate the men from the boys. Fire the marketing agent...fire the agronomist....cancel the micro nutrients....... lay off the extra help....cancel that super duper semi and trailer you just ordered...thise combines will do just fine for several years....burn the RB catalog....Let that shitty ground go, it hardly made money when canola was $11.00. Its going to get interesting, this is not going to end well because our boy in Ottawa wants farmers to be peasants like we used to be. Those Liberal eletes will always get paid and don’t give a rip about western Canada.