$500

[macdon02]

If canola doesn't take it out and close above by Friday, likely looking at a run to 440 ish. Will be a 4x attempt Gann signal. What can't go up must go down. We hit the roof imo for now

[BreadWinner]

Macdon, i think your dreaming. 60% of canola is under snow in Western Canada not to mention how much of it is green snd worthless. Huge rainfall headed for the US is going to wreck allot of beans. Australia has a mega drought. Brazil is almost sold out of beans. I think a run up to 550 is more likely.

[farmaholic]

I say $600 before next July.

[farming101]

If canola doesn't take it out and close above by Friday, likely looking at a run to 440 ish. Will be a 4x attempt Gann signal. What can't go up must go down. We hit the roof imo for now

Really appreciate your take on the charts...

While Mr Gann says it's now or never I think Mr Elliott still gives us some hope.
However, there is a lot of resistance to much higher prices.
Best case: we take out 506.10 (near term) before a retracement

Long term, the view is far from clear. You could make a case for 440; you could also make a case for 570

[bucket]

I say $600 before next July.

Sooner than later and this may drag other crops with it.....


Those 4 new shiny ****ing snow catchers might pay off. ....lol

[quadtrac]

If it goes to $440 the basis will be + $50 or they’ll have to shut down crush plants.

[SASKFARMER3]

I can't see 440 as even a possibility but 600 will happen if more snow hits and crops are left out. Also as well as guys dry you always have some issue someplace.

[furrowtickler]

I think the trade is deliberately ignoring how much canola is out in fields and how much will have zero value to the market.
20-50% green seed is non exportable ..... that’s a fact . And there will be a lot of that out there .

[macdon02]

And there it goes.... all it needs is the close, which is more important then the intraday action. In this case if you look at it fractally, ideally we get confirmation on a daily level as well as weekly on Fridays close, over the previous resistance. Hopefully this helps some of you guys recognise a pinch point, in time, which imo is more important then price.

[farmaholic]

Is $600 enough?

[bucket]

If there is as much canola out as indicated and its green what are you guys thinking for production .....15mmt....16mmt...there is no 19mmt production for this year.

Now start taking out the green issues....well milligan needs it to be up and running...are they publicly traded? might be a great investment.....

Crushers are going to be begging for canola...

I feel for the pre contracted bushels not in the bin .....that could be a huge hit for some guys....hello input capital as the largest landowner in saskatchewan

[bigzee]

Don’t forget to get your 2019 seed booked and paid for by the end of Oct to take advantage of great fall savings. 🤣🤣🤣
Retailers leave me alone already!!

[farmaholic]

If it goes to $440 the basis will be + $50 or they’ll have to shut down crush plants.

Yes basis well be an interesting watch if canola can break above $600/tonne also.

Maybe the reason the "market" is so ****ing quiet is because they are assessing the situation and positioning themselves to take advantage of it. There may well be alot of low hanging fruit to be picked between now and when the harvest window finally closes(and maybe a couple of months after that), why run it up now? But when the tight fisted owners need to be dealt with..... possession is key, don't fall for delivering against basis contracts if you don't have to.


This applies to all commodities.

[sumdumguy]

It’s cheaper to buy long than to grow a crop.

[bucket]

I don't grow canola but I will cheer it on....giddy up.....