$500

[jdepape]

Good discussion about current weather and the canola market. Also recently read a market commentary that said the canola market was effectively ignoring the weather - lots on Agriville saying this too.
IMO, the market is doing exactly what it should, given the circumstances.
What's interesting to me is that there is not much talk about basis or spreads.

You guys inspired me to write some detailed thoughts on current weather's market impact on canola.
- deliveries way behind where we need to be
- 20+ vessels waiting for (mostly) canola
- futures not taking off
- basis is flat to even weaker (and be careful - country basis will never go to +50 under any circumstances)
- spreads firming up but not unusual
- where do we go from here and when

Happy to give free copies of this report (latest of my weekly reports)
Just drop me a line at john@depape.ca

[the big wheel]

So in summary pretty much wipe the ass s with those charts because a major shutdown to canola crushing is right around the corner and nit even so called experts want to say canola will go up.

If s nothing about supply and demand it's about manipulating us right down to the last bushel we have.

[farmaholic]

It's ****en easy....canola bin doors don't open here unless the price starts with a twelve....now is that $12.01 or $12.99? Depending how fast it approaches 12 will depend on where my "moving target" settles. Ya that's right, my moving target....the kind the merchants find hard to manage.

[jdepape]

So in summary pretty much wipe the ass s with those charts because a major shutdown to canola crushing is right around the corner and nit even so called experts want to say canola will go up.

If s nothing about supply and demand it's about manipulating us right down to the last bushel we have.

Sorry that's what you got from that.
It's absolutely all about supply and demand. Near-term supply or crop year supply?
And who's saying canola won't go up?

[bucket]

Sorry that's what you got from that.
It's absolutely all about supply and demand. Near-term supply or crop year supply?
And who's saying canola won't go up?

The market and it's always right.....

[checking]

News feed stating that harvest drying is putting the squeeze on natural gas supplies. Perhaps we have a second reason for a natural warm up since if the feed is true, I believe home heating needs have priority over commercial enterprise needs. Just how many farms are on the main gas lines that they could create a "squeeze"? Only a couple in this area: one only used once in 32 years.

[the big wheel]

Sorry that's what you got from that.
It's absolutely all about supply and demand. Near-term supply or crop year supply?
And who's saying canola won't go up?

10.50 is that the market saying there is a shortage??? Hahahaha

[farmaholic]

10.50 is that the market saying there is a shortage??? Hahahaha

You know ****en well the current prices are "predatory" prices.

All sorts of "offers" on the table to "help". Pick the one that makes the most sense(cents) to you and is easiest to swallow.

[jdepape]

10.50 is that the market saying there is a shortage??? Hahahaha

Who says there's a shortage? Go back to 2016-17 - not that long ago. Lousy fall, loads couldn't be harvested until the spring. Still put close to 20 mmt into the market that year. Some field losses but no big shortage.

Deliveries are worth watching. We are significantly behind where we should be right now. But why would buyers bid up the market when they know damn well it won't bring in any more than they are getting right now anyway? Even posted basis is flat. I'm hearing of some deals or "specials" but not terribly widespread.


The market is "short" about 450,000 tonne right now, vessels waiting. But I suspect they know - for now - higher prices won't do anything.
Who here will sell canola at $11/bu for guaranteed spot delivery. How about $12.00/bu?

[Guest]

Wow.....

Regarding marketing. Best not to put too much store in what anyone says or thinks especially me. Just one person's view. Do what's best for you and your business.

you know a lot more than you give yourself credit for !

[Guest]

10.50 is that the market saying there is a shortage??? Hahahaha

who looks at prices right now , certainly not me ?
this is an extended harvest happy hour to get every ****in bushel cheap they can
too bad some people have to sell right now
we sold a little (very little) 4 months ago to go from combine for $11
good place to start I think

[Guest]

Who says there's a shortage? Go back to 2016-17 - not that long ago. Lousy fall, loads couldn't be harvested until the spring. Still put close to 20 mmt into the market that year. Some field losses but no big shortage.

Deliveries are worth watching. We are significantly behind where we should be right now. But why would buyers bid up the market when they know damn well it won't bring in any more than they are getting right now anyway? Even posted basis is flat. I'm hearing of some deals or "specials" but not terribly widespread.
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The market is "short" about 450,000 tonne right now, vessels waiting. But I suspect they know - for now - higher prices won't do anything.
Who here will sell canola at $11/bu for guaranteed spot delivery. How about $12.00/bu?

no shortage in 2016?
so wtf are the Feds pumping more money into growing more ?
that's where all the money goes anymore

[farming101]

Some things to remember...
Grain companies are having a tsunami of wet canola being offered to them; it can only be dried so fast.
Producers are acting strange and holding on to their canola that will keep.

Some points don't even have driers

There is a cost to running a drier, and likely many points would like to upgrade their drier. The grain cos pass that on in the bid offered.
There is the demurrage that might pile up, so graincos are being proactive and being cautious so that they do not have to recoup that later. They can work that into the bid now and have the money available to pay the demurrage bill without interest