Burning Questions - Saskatchewan’s coal extension impacts affordability

[chuckChuck]

The Pembina Institute reports that Saskatchewan’s decision to extend its coal-fired power plant operations to 2050 makes it the only Canadian province still relying on coal for electricity. [1 ([url]https://www.pembina.org/pub/health-implications-saskatchewans-delayed-coal-power-phase-out[/url]), 2 ([url]https://www.pembina.org/blog/saskatchewan-going-wrong-direction-coal)][/url]

[url]https://www.pembina.org/pub/burning-questions[/url]

Key Findings from Pembina Institute Reports

• High Financial Costs: Continuing with coal will cost Saskatchewan between $26 billion and $32 billion. Converting the plants to natural gas would cost $18 billion to $25 billion. Expanding renewable energy would cost only $12 billion to $17 billion plus $1 billion in battery storage. [1 ([url]https://www.pembina.org/media-release/coal-will-cost-saskatchewan-tens-billions-more-natural-gas-or-renewables-report)][/url]

• Health and Environmental Impacts: Delaying the coal phase-out causes avoidable air pollution—including sulphur and nitrogen oxides, mercury, and particulate matter. This pollution contributes to asthma, heart attacks, and lung disease, carrying an estimated $160 million in local healthcare and social costs.[1 ([url]https://cape.ca/press_release/health-leaders-urge-saskatchewan-to-quit-coal/[/url]), 2 ([url]https://www.pembina.org/pub/health-implications-saskatchewans-delayed-coal-power-phase-out)][/url]

• Missed Opportunities: The province possesses strong wind and solar resources, but the government chose to refurbish aging coal infrastructure instead of transitioning fully to cleaner, cheaper alternatives. [1 ([url]https://www.pembina.org/pub/burning-questions[/url]), 2 ([url]https://www.pembina.org/programs/electricity[/url]), 3 ([url]https://cape.ca/press_release/health-leaders-urge-saskatchewan-to-quit-coal/)][/url]

[chuckChuck]

Executive summary
Saskatchewan is at an important juncture in shaping the future of its electricity system. The
province and its crown utility, SaskPower, have taken positive steps to diversify their supply mix
and reduce electricity emissions while also meeting growing demand, reducing electricity
emissions intensity by 35% in the past 15 years. However, in June 2025, the Government of
Saskatchewan announced its intention to extend the life of its aging coal-fired generation fleet
until 2050 and reversed its plans to achieve significant renewable capacity by 2030.
This decision has been framed as a measure to support affordability, reliability and security;
however, our analysis finds it a more expensive option than using its world-class wind and solar
resources in addition to storage and energy efficiency, all of which are outcompeting fossil fuel
electricity in Canada and around the world. Saskatchewan’s decision also sets them apart from
the path taken by all other provinces and much of the world, including its fossil-fuel reliant
neighbor, Alberta, which successfully phased out coal in 2024 — six years ahead of schedule.
In 2015, SaskPower set a goal to source 50% of its installed capacity from renewable energy.
Although the target was later revised to “40–50%”, Saskatchewan has made notable strides in
meeting this target and has reduced its electricity emissions over the past decade. Coal’s share of
annual electricity generation had fallen to less than 25% by 2025.
Against this backdrop, the Saskatchewan government’s decision to extend the life of coal-fired
power plants marks a significant shift in direction. To better understand the implications of this
reversal, this report examines the affordability, reliability and emissions implications of
extending coal-fired power by an additional 20 years.
Key findings
• Refurbishing and operating Saskatchewan’s coal fleet is estimated to cost roughly
$26 to $32 billion between 2025 and 2050. Alternatively, converting the coal fleet to
burn natural gas costs about $18 to $25 billion, while expanding wind and solar
capacity could displace the total 25-years of coal-fired electricity supply for roughly
$12 to $17 billion. This portfolio of wind and solar could mostly match the output of
the coal plants with an additional $1 billion worth of batteries.
• Continuing to rely on coal for electricity generation presents, according to a leaked
internal SaskPower planning document, high reliability risks. Rather than a more
resilient and diverse portfolio of technologies that could include wind, solar, natural gas,
nuclear and battery storage, a continued reliance on coal increases the risk of disruptions
or outages, especially while one or more large coal plant is down for maintenance
(planned or unplanned) or refurbishment.
•
Extending Saskatchewan’s coal phase-out by an additional 20 years would release an
additional 155 megatonnes of greenhouse gases (Mt CO2e), which is comparable
to adding the total annual emissions of a mid-sized country such as Netherlands, or
roughly twice the annual emissions of New Zealand or Austria.
While Saskatchewan’s reliance on fossil fuels contributes to some of the highest electricity costs
in Canada, the province also benefits from some of the country’s strongest wind and solar
resources. Extending the life of coal-fired generation risks both delaying the development of
these competitive advantages and locking consumers into higher-cost, higher emissions
electricity. With the rapidly falling cost of renewable energy technologies, however,
Saskatchewan has a unique opportunity to modernize its electricity system, strengthen energy
security, and ultimately, deliver a more affordable, reliable, and cleaner electricity system that
can support both a growing economy and rising electricity demand for decades to come.

Recommendations
1. Get Saskatchewan’s electricity transition back on the lowest-cost track.
Saskatchewan should return to the lowest-cost options it was pursuing prior to delaying
its coal-phase out and recommit to ending conventional coal-fired generation by 2030. To
achieve this, Saskatchewan should prioritize a diversified portfolio of generation
technologies and complementary resources that can meet current and future demand
reliably while keeping electricity rates affordable.

2. Put reliability, affordability and emissions at the centre of SaskPower planning. The
province should require SaskPower to model future supply scenarios based on meeting
reliability and decarbonization objectives at the lowest cost to ratepayers. This planning
should be transparent and include community and stakeholder engagement consistent
with SaskPower’s 2024 sessions.

3. Protect the integrity of Canada’s coal phase-out in federal-provincial equivalency
deals. The federal government should only pursue an equivalency agreement with
Saskatchewan if it contains a clear pathway for phasing out coal generation in the short
term, while safeguarding national emissions reduction targets and international climate
leadership.