Tony Keller ([url]https://www.theglobeandmail.com/authors/tony-keller/[/url])
Published Yesterday
He went to the war demanding Iran’s unconditional surrender. But the ceasefire terms between the U.S. and Iran make it crystal clear that it’s U.S. President Donald Trump ([url]https://www.theglobeandmail.com/topics/donald-trump/[/url]) who has waved the white flag.
It was always obvious that this is how it would end. On March 23, I headlined my column with “Trump’s first mistake was starting the war. His next mistake may be to let Iran win
Mission accomplished.
On March 27, my headline was “Trump’s Iran war is going to end badly, unless it ends worse. ([url]https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-iran-war-donald-trump-end-badly/)”[/url]
Behold worse.
The memorandum of understanding between Washington and Iran is a short and fairly straightforward document. It’s basically divided into two stages.
First, Iran agrees to stop blocking the Strait of Hormuz. In return, the United States promises to reward Iran.
The U.S. pledges to immediately issue sanctions waivers to allow Iran to sell its oil; to release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets; and to begin the establishment of a US$300-billion reconstruction fund for Iran.
There’s also a vague paragraph that may open the door to Iran charging tolls on ships passing through the strait.
Art of the Deal Donnie is paying a ransom. Simple as that.
He started the war, but in response Iran blocked the strait. The U.S. military could not dislodge the blockage, and Mr. Trump did not have the patience to maintain the use of his best weapon, the counter-blockade ([url]https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-the-weapon-that-can-reopen-the-strait-of-hormuz-its-the-economy-stupid/[/url]) of Iran. That’s why, in a bid to restore prewar oil prices and calm American voters before this fall’s midterm elections, Mr. Trump is dancing to Iran’s tune.
Opinion: The U.S.-Iran peace deal is crisis management, not resolution. Oil’s fall could be temporary ([url]https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-us-iran-oil-peace-deal-trump-crisis-management/[/url])
Mr. Trump is used to receiving payoffs. He’s used to running shakedowns. Here, he’s the one handing out the envelopes.
That’s the first part of the MOU.
The second part, covering most of the memorandum’s 14 clauses, is simply a commitment to return to talks on an issue the two sides held long talks about, without progress, prior to the war.
The U.S. and Iran have agreed to spend 60 days discussing the possibility of limits on Iran’s nuclear program. If they can agree, the MOU dangles the possibility of lifting all sanctions on Iran.
Keep in mind that strict limits on Iran’s nuclear program were part of an agreement signed under president Barack Obama, which included monitoring and enforcement. Mr. Trump junked all that in his first term.
Given that the negotiating period in the MOU is just 60 days, it’s unlikely anything will be agreed. The Obama-era Iran nuclear deal took years to conclude.
The Trump administration and Tehran held fruitless nuclear talks before the war, and success on American terms is even less likely now, given the hollowness of U.S. military threats.
All that Washington has secured on the atomic front is an umpteenth reiteration of Iran’s long-standing position, which is that it retains the right to enrich uranium, but promises never to go so far as to build a nuclear weapon. That, and 60 more days of talking about it.
As Mr. Trump nakedly retreats, it’s a small fig leaf to cover his derrière.
But the parts of the agreement detailing how the U.S. will reward Iran for reopening the Strait of Hormuz are substantial and real. They will allow Iran to restock its coffers, and rebuild its military strength and its capacity to bully its neighbours.
Mr. Trump went to war promising liberation for the Iranian people. There’s not a word about that in the MOU.
He went to war aiming to end or severely diminish Iran’s ballistic missile program. There’s nothing about that in the MOU. Instead, speaking at the G7 on Wednesday, Mr. Trump said that since some other countries have long-range missiles, it’s only fair that Iran have them, too.
He went to war promising to limit or end Iran’s ability to use proxy forces to threaten regional peace. That’s also not in the MOU – though there are provisions that commit the U.S. to stopping its ally Israel from waging war against Iranian-backed Hezbollah.
In another first, the agreement explicitly links the Strait of Hormuz to Lebanon.
In the coming weeks, do not be surprised if Tehran restarts attacks in the Persian Gulf, stopping shipping and spiking oil prices – while arguing that it is only violating the MOU because Israeli attacks on Hezbollah, or the presence of Israeli troops in Lebanon, are also a violation. Do not be surprised if this happens more than once.
It would force Mr. Trump to choose between pressing Israel to yield to Iranian demands, or returning to war with Iran.
You know which course he will choose. He already has.
Published Yesterday
He went to the war demanding Iran’s unconditional surrender. But the ceasefire terms between the U.S. and Iran make it crystal clear that it’s U.S. President Donald Trump ([url]https://www.theglobeandmail.com/topics/donald-trump/[/url]) who has waved the white flag.
It was always obvious that this is how it would end. On March 23, I headlined my column with “Trump’s first mistake was starting the war. His next mistake may be to let Iran win
Mission accomplished.
On March 27, my headline was “Trump’s Iran war is going to end badly, unless it ends worse. ([url]https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-iran-war-donald-trump-end-badly/)”[/url]
Behold worse.
The memorandum of understanding between Washington and Iran is a short and fairly straightforward document. It’s basically divided into two stages.
First, Iran agrees to stop blocking the Strait of Hormuz. In return, the United States promises to reward Iran.
The U.S. pledges to immediately issue sanctions waivers to allow Iran to sell its oil; to release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets; and to begin the establishment of a US$300-billion reconstruction fund for Iran.
There’s also a vague paragraph that may open the door to Iran charging tolls on ships passing through the strait.
Art of the Deal Donnie is paying a ransom. Simple as that.
He started the war, but in response Iran blocked the strait. The U.S. military could not dislodge the blockage, and Mr. Trump did not have the patience to maintain the use of his best weapon, the counter-blockade ([url]https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-the-weapon-that-can-reopen-the-strait-of-hormuz-its-the-economy-stupid/[/url]) of Iran. That’s why, in a bid to restore prewar oil prices and calm American voters before this fall’s midterm elections, Mr. Trump is dancing to Iran’s tune.
Opinion: The U.S.-Iran peace deal is crisis management, not resolution. Oil’s fall could be temporary ([url]https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-us-iran-oil-peace-deal-trump-crisis-management/[/url])
Mr. Trump is used to receiving payoffs. He’s used to running shakedowns. Here, he’s the one handing out the envelopes.
That’s the first part of the MOU.
The second part, covering most of the memorandum’s 14 clauses, is simply a commitment to return to talks on an issue the two sides held long talks about, without progress, prior to the war.
The U.S. and Iran have agreed to spend 60 days discussing the possibility of limits on Iran’s nuclear program. If they can agree, the MOU dangles the possibility of lifting all sanctions on Iran.
Keep in mind that strict limits on Iran’s nuclear program were part of an agreement signed under president Barack Obama, which included monitoring and enforcement. Mr. Trump junked all that in his first term.
Given that the negotiating period in the MOU is just 60 days, it’s unlikely anything will be agreed. The Obama-era Iran nuclear deal took years to conclude.
The Trump administration and Tehran held fruitless nuclear talks before the war, and success on American terms is even less likely now, given the hollowness of U.S. military threats.
All that Washington has secured on the atomic front is an umpteenth reiteration of Iran’s long-standing position, which is that it retains the right to enrich uranium, but promises never to go so far as to build a nuclear weapon. That, and 60 more days of talking about it.
As Mr. Trump nakedly retreats, it’s a small fig leaf to cover his derrière.
But the parts of the agreement detailing how the U.S. will reward Iran for reopening the Strait of Hormuz are substantial and real. They will allow Iran to restock its coffers, and rebuild its military strength and its capacity to bully its neighbours.
Mr. Trump went to war promising liberation for the Iranian people. There’s not a word about that in the MOU.
He went to war aiming to end or severely diminish Iran’s ballistic missile program. There’s nothing about that in the MOU. Instead, speaking at the G7 on Wednesday, Mr. Trump said that since some other countries have long-range missiles, it’s only fair that Iran have them, too.
He went to war promising to limit or end Iran’s ability to use proxy forces to threaten regional peace. That’s also not in the MOU – though there are provisions that commit the U.S. to stopping its ally Israel from waging war against Iranian-backed Hezbollah.
In another first, the agreement explicitly links the Strait of Hormuz to Lebanon.
In the coming weeks, do not be surprised if Tehran restarts attacks in the Persian Gulf, stopping shipping and spiking oil prices – while arguing that it is only violating the MOU because Israeli attacks on Hezbollah, or the presence of Israeli troops in Lebanon, are also a violation. Do not be surprised if this happens more than once.
It would force Mr. Trump to choose between pressing Israel to yield to Iranian demands, or returning to war with Iran.
You know which course he will choose. He already has.
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