Trevor Tombe at the U of C on food inflationin Canada

[chuckChuck]

According to economist Trevor Tombe, Canadian food inflation is primarily driven by supply-side shocks rather than corporate greed, with farm-level input costs, global supply chain issues, and international events like the war in Ukraine playing major roles. Tombe found that increased production costs (energy, fertilizer) and international factors, rather than rising corporate profit margins, account for most price hikes.

Key Drivers of Food Inflation (per Tombe's analysis):

• Supply-Side Shocks: The dominant factor, including pandemic-related shipping issues, climate-related shortages, and global food supply issues.
• Input Costs: Rising farm product prices, energy costs, and shipping costs drive up production, which is passed on to consumers.
• International Factors: The war in Ukraine significantly impacted food prices, including bread and pasta products.
• Weakened Canadian Dollar: The depreciation of the Canadian dollar has made imported food more expensive.
• Limited Impact of "Greedflation": Tombe's analysis suggests that changing corporate markups are not a major driver, with food prices likely to have risen by 20% compared to 21% even if markups did not increase.
• Small Impact of Carbon Pricing: Tombe's research, including a 2025 paper, indicates that emissions pricing, like the carbon tax, has a relatively small impact on total food costs compared to other factors.

[furrowtickler]

Grains , pulses and oilseed farm gate prices are up to 50% lower than 2022 .
Tombie forgot that eh ?

[Hamloc]

Post this article from Sylvain Charlebois Chuck2, the food professor.

[blackpowder]

Give the carbon based bot a nod here. His article debunks any cry of excess corporate profits. For now.

[rodd]

Can someone enlighten me on how we are able to pass our increased costs on to consumers. Other than locking bin doors and waiting for higher prices (or lower) I have never been able to set my sale price.

[furrowtickler]

We have near zero influence on prices we receive regardless of how high our inputs go
Desk jockies like Tombie don’t understand that I guess

[chuckChuck]

There were several causes of the very high commodity prices in 2022 that increased costs to consumers. And Tombe clearly said the carbon tax had very little impact on food inflation.

In 2022,
Canadian grain, oilseed, and pulse prices reached record or near-record highs, driven by low supply following the 2021 Western Canadian drought, strong global demand, and market disruptions from the war in Ukraine. While prices for many crops peaked in the second quarter and began to decline in August 2022 due to a rebound in domestic production, the average prices for the year remained well above five-year averages.

[farmaholic]

I think the carbon tax had a big compounding affect on prices that some people refuse to acknowledge.

[chuckChuck]

You think?

C'mom man Trevor Tombe and the parliamentary budget office look at the actual evidence before they draw a conclusion.

[farmaholic]

Who's evidence, their conclusion may not be right either...